Wednesday, 7 April 2010

Question Time

"Good morning Mr Brown....I've been expecting you."

David Dimbleby will be joined in Woking by David Miliband, Theresa May, Sir Ming Campbell, Simon Schama and Janet Daley.

Special Wednesday election edition. Woking is a Lib/Con split, but with a significant Muslim population , if that helps frame the audience.

I wonder if there will be any crisps questions.

#1 - How will the major parties seek to capture the undecided.

#2 - Is the National Insurance tax a tax on jobs?

#3 -Something about gay boarding houses being forced to accept Fundamentalist Islamic guests..

#4 - Is the government taxing fuel a way to stoke up inflation?

# 5 - Do the leader's debates give an unfair advantage to the Lib Dems?

# 6 Who would Tiger vote for?

Up to 6 questions...
winner gets two tickets to ride in a battlebus of their choice.

Cityunslicker trading update - Q1 2010

NameSymbolLast pricePurchase TargetQ1 2010
Minerva plcMNR118249840%
EMED Mining
Public 
EMED10.75950-12%
Caledon Resources PlcCDN52586520%
Xtract Energy PlcXTR2.53.35-10%
Ascent Resources PlcAST5.256.32-10%
Ithaca Energy Inc.IAE1414712055%
Invista
European Real Estate 
IERE2923.75407%
Gulf
Keystone Petroleum 
GKP86.2596200-16%
Kopane
Diamonds 
KDD11.7714.2535-12%
Petra Diamonds LimitedPDL74.5618018%
FORTE ENERGY NPVFTE8.4511.2520-22%
Pan Pacific Aggregates plcPPA0.750.791-5%
African Eagle Resources plcAFE3.9544.80%
Sterling Energy plcSEY135155190-14%
XCITE ENERGY LIMITEDXEL56487030%
HeritageHOIL540Sold57060015%
ChariotCHAR55Sold 70100100%
TR YTD19%

Boy am I glad my predictions of an imminent market correction proved wrong in Q4 of last year! I remained long throughout the first quarter this year and am still so, with less in cash than before. I may well change this position shortly after the election or even shortly before.
I have added XEL, another North Sea Explorer, SEY, another Kurdistan explorer and moved back into AFE as more drilling results are due.
I sold HOIL as thought there were better opportunities in Kurdistan and North Sea and their drilling news is not for months, sold for a 7% profit. Chariot is a great company but seemingly got taken over for a pump and dump, so I sold making a huge profit and will buy back in after the strange market settles, it went as high as 80 and is now back to 55. I sold at 250% profit. I also lost 50% of an investment after a few days into DES - idiot that I am! Over trading is hard to avoid, but leads to awful mistakes.

Very annoying to be behind Guido who has managed 38% so far this year, 3 more quarters to go though.

Politicians@Work: Optimism

Peter Mandelson is a clever chap and it was not a bad idea when, in the run-up to the Budget, he told Brown and Darling to start saying "I'm very Optimistic" on all occasions. Brown gave this its first airing when smiling grotesquely as he "relished the prospect" of the upcoming TV debates.

But then Peter had a second good idea, which was to pull a Long Face and stress how fragile is the recovery. And Lo! since it's best not to try to combine both faces at once, Brown commences the campaign with strict instructions to stay with the long one. He finds it easier anyway.

Which is kinda convenient as it leaves the Optimism field wide open for the Tories. They are beaming at every opportunity, and why not indeed, because at last they have found a really simple mantra that is working immediately and brilliantly: we're going to
scrap the tax on jobs (boy, those last 3 words echo easily around every studio don't they ?) and we're optimistic that waste can be found to fund it.

This one will run and run. In the face of a really frustrating series of opening skirmishes for Labour, it's more than ever likely they will hatch some really monstrous lie, a la "Tories to scrap state pension" of 1997. But whereas Blair had huge capital with the media with which to invest in this lie, Brown has almost none. That staged Long Face will quickly become a real one. Which is the start of a jolly amusing death-spiral, since he'll have a hard job disappearing from public view any time soon.

Optimism all round, I'd say.

ND

Tuesday, 6 April 2010

Tory Energy Policy Will Have To Wait

Not much posting from me recently, I've been very busy and things will continue that way for, ooh, looks like ... four more weeks or so.

A couple of weeks back the long- awaited Tory policy for keeping the lights on was published. It's earnest. Dirigiste. And clearly written by Oliver Letwin. But now is not the time.

No, it's all hands to the pump. Living in the ultra-marginal Croydon Central we have the added excitement of the vain and unstable Andrew Pelling putting ego before party and declaring as an independent. This in the very month he sought to have his marriage annulled on the grounds he was mentally unfit to make his vows. Oh - and after publicly declaring
12 months ago he'd be supporting the new Conservative candidate.

What with high levels of BNP activity on the key council estates here, it could be a 3, 4 or even 5-way split.

To the pavements !

ND


UK Electoin madness starts - How long 'til the World Cup?

The latter after all tends to be quite enjoyable, the UK election is set to be the opposite. As some readers will be aware the Capitalists herewith take a great deal of interest in UK and Global Politics, but this election is so long in the making (since Oct '07!) that the lusture of it has been dulled, plus there is some genuinely weird background noise:






- This is an election Gordon Brown does not want, he has held on until the (very) bitter end of a 5 year term.
- Neither does the 'Rotten' Parliament - so keen are the MP's not to do their jobs that over 50% will be replaced because they are not standing or will lose their seats.
- None of the future Chancellors wants the job either; How do I know this? Well given the massive woppers on public spending they all told at their recent debate; the truth is going to hurt when one of them gets the keys to No 11.
- Sam Cameron did not want this election either, she wanted to model herself on Dennis Thatcher.
- Alistair Darling does not want this election for another reason, that being Gordon Brown is going to sack him if he wins.
- Many Tories don't want this election because they want Labour to have to clear up the mess they have made.
- Many in the Labour party don't want to win this election because they fear having to clean up the mess they have made.
- The Lib Dems don't want to win an election because then they may have to have a policy they stick to nationally and that will be the end of them.
- Despite what people say, the markets don't want this election either, they have allowed the UK to suspend disbelief over the frailties of its finances; a decisive new Government is not going to get an easy ride.
- The turnout for the election is likely to be low becuase of the Rotten Parliament ramifications. Votes for smaller parties will grow - yet the coverage in the media will be all about Brown and Cameron who will poll maybe only 2/3'rds of the votes.

So there you go, no one wants this election (betters at politicalbetting.com aside) - I say bring on the World Cup, at least 50% of the population is in favour of that!

Sunday, 4 April 2010

Crash

A reader writes.

Dear Mr CU
I've been reading your blog for some months and find it both entertaining and informative. I happened to be listening to "Crash" by The Primitives last night and I was struck by how perfectly the lyrics fit the taxpayers relationship with Gordon Brown.

Best wishes,
Geoff.



Now, just watched Mr Bean's holiday with Miss Quango. This very song features, making it even more appropriate.

Bank holiday competition.
Other appropriate election songs.
Hey, hey we're the Monkeys - Monkeys.
Beat it - Michael Jackson.
Go Now - Moody blues.
Its all over but the crying - Garbage.
Are you ready to be heartbroken? -Lloyd Cole and the Commotions

Saturday, 3 April 2010

Goodbyeee..

Brownadder. The Final Chapter.

GHQ to all brigades. Enemy massing- Gaining strength -Best form of defence is offence - have bought back Tony Blair to cause maximum offence - All brigades ready for final assault on strong dividing lines - Scots Labour Highlanders to advance on extreme left with 3rd Plaid Cymru in support. Brownadder's company to advance on centre ground, moving ever so slightly left. Top Secret-Top Secret. -Offensive date is May 6th.- No one will guess this date except a few thousand million voters, so we maintain the element of surprise. Advance under cover of a fog of statistics and gas from John Prescott. Unfortunately no extra cash available for extra weapons, body armour or grenades. But take heart. Military spending has risen every year since 1997 if you don't count the years where it didn't. Replacement helicopters, spy planes, anti-roadside bomb robots and fast armoured transports will be with you within six years. Good luck.

"There is a green hill far away .... I will be watching results from there."

General Sir Peter Hartley-Paul Mandelchett, Lord of Foy.

Labour Party HQ.


Goodbyeee..

“What’s it like out there with the activists Ballsdrick.” Asked Captain Brownadder of his lowly, but loyal batman, as Ballsdrick entered the bunker, dust blowing down the steps from the blasts of nearby shells.

“Not too good sir. They’re mostly running away from voters and tearing up their party badges and dumping your posters in the river,” answered Ballsdrick brushing the dirt from his battledress.

“I see. How’s the online ‘Obama style - Sarah Twitter’ campaign team doing?”

“Mostly they’re just watching your Downfall Youtubes sir.”

“Right. So Its not looking good. Time to make my phone call and get this cunning plan up and running.”

Brownadder picked up the receiver and wound up the field phone. “ Herman Van Rompuy at the European Parliament please... Yes, it’s very urgent.”

“That sounds like a Hun name sir?”said Ballsdrick.

“This is a crisis Ballsdrick. I’d bugger the Kaiser himself if it would bring me five more years of power.”

“So would I sir! Even if it didn’t, “leered Ballsdrick.

“Be quiet Ballsdrick. You’ve been about as good for me as Joanna Lumley.”

“I’m just so keen to go over the top and count up our vote share tomorrow sir.”

“You always go over the top Ballsdrick. Look at the bloody CRB checks for parents fiasco. That’s why we are in this mess in the first place. Now shut up while I make this call.”

Brownadder was suddenly connected.. "Field Marshall Van Rompuy here. Hullo?"

“Its Captain Brownadder here Field Marshall Van Rompuy.”

“Good lord Brownie! Haven’t seen you since.."

“2005 sir. The Lisbon Pass? We passed on the referendum..”

“Lisbon Pass, by Jingo yes.” Said the Field Marshall with delight. ” We sure gave those voters a good squashing. I owe my job to you Brownie. If you hadn’t come along and saved the damned treaty that day.. If it weren’t for you that Farage man with the sharpened UKIP flag could have seriously..”

“Well quite” interrupted Brownadder. “And do you remember what you told me then? If I was ever in real trouble, if I ever really needed a favour then the EU would do everything it could to help me out? “

“Yes..Yes I do. What can I do for you, ask away man” said Rumpoy.

“Well, its the big vote tomorrow and I’m not all that keen on having an election.”

“Oh I see.. Well we believe in elections here in Brussels.”

“Really? We hadn’t noticed the EU being in favour of democracy here” murmured Brownadder.

“Yes. Well. Not for us of course. But for you. Its good for the little peoples to have meaningless votes and pointless changes of government. Keeps them out of our hair, eh what?” chortled Herman.

“But not so good for me personally,” pointed out Brownadder quietly.

“Ahh, yes.. well you see, it’s tricky, 27 EU states have to ratify any ..”

“It was a particularly vicious U-turn that I had to perform wasn’t it sir?” interrupted Captain Brownadder.

“Ok. This is most irregular but you have been loyal. Well then ,Here you are. This has been tried and tested already. Berlusconi swears by it. First ,you need to control all the newspapers, radio and TV stations..”

“Well , I’ve got BBC TV and radio sewn up already. The Mirror and Guardian .Partial Telegraph too...”

“Good. That should do it. Now all you have to do is sleep with a load of sexy young girls, have divorce proceedings begun against you for being an adulterous randy old goat and get a model of St Paul's thrown in your face. The electorate will flock to you in droves.”

“I see...” said Gordmund. “Does it really have to be girls?”

“Of course Man. The foxier the better. And have a beautiful young MP named as your lover. Or appoint luscious hot young women to parliament. You do have some stunning women MPs in your party don’t you? I can't seem to remember their faces but the names... I seem to remember.. Blears? Smith? Eagles? Moran ? Flint ?”

Brownadder thought for a bit and said, “I'm not sure they would be suitable. Anyway they’ve all gone. I’ve really only got Harman.”

There was stunned silence from the telephone.

Rumpoy queries ” You did say you wanted to WIN an election?”

“OK..It won’t work. What else have you got?” asked Brownadder.

“Well... you could strip off your top and ride ponies into rivers while shooting at fish with a shotgun and fighting bears. That works for some Russian Presidents.”

Brownadder felt his flabby stomach and considered how he would appear stripped to the waist in a dog pit.

“Look. I'm not Boris Johnson. Got anything else?” he asked.

“Well, If you have a sexy babe like Carla Bruni or Michele Obama then its best to announce a pregnancy right now. I’m sorry I can’t quite recall your wife. Is she a newspapers front page dream? If she got out of a car,and had, erm, shall we say forgotten a certain undergarment, would that make the front pages? A sort of ‘leave it to beaver’ strategy.

There was more silence from Brownadder. This was about as helpful as a British Airways customer service desk he thought.

“I think it would make the front page Rompoy. But wouldn’t necessarily win any votes. Besides, regarding pregnancy, the enemy has already occupied that particular hill.”

Very well Brownadder.But this is the last one. This is the clincher OK. But if I do fix it for you I never want to see or hear from you again is that clear?

“Suits me Rumpy!” smiled Brownadder

“Right. Start acting a bit loopy and let your face sag. Clench and clunk your fist and shake your hand in anger a lot. Put out rumours that you are on medication and throw furniture and electrical devices around your office in a great temper. Look sad and remote and the voters will think you’ve had a stroke and vote you in on a wave of sympathy. Right, favour returned “ said Von Rompoy and ended the call.

Brownadder sat at his desk and stared at the silent phone. He was suddenly very tired.

He went outside the bunker to join his platoon in the trench.

*****

“Sir, I’m scared sir, “said Captain Geoff Hoon. “I’m the last of the fresh faced, optimistic, New Labour Blairites of ’97. I don’t want to be deselected. Not awful keen on facing the electorate at all. In fact..I won’t bother.”

“I’m scared too sir” added Ballsdrick. “I’m the last of the diehard, ultra left, smearing bruiser Brownies.. I wanted to get to the top, not get the chop.”

“Yes. Its all been a bit pointless hasn't it. The voters may see the terrible waste of millions, the never ending, cloying, mud of our own bureaucracy and the feeble, costly, asthmatic progress towards our goals as not much of an achievement," reflected Brownadder. " They might not believe the total loss of a generation and spending more treasure than it took to fight all of the Empire’s war’s in history, was worth it. Just to be able to say 'we promise 2 meg broadband for all, within another ten years.”

“Not really Sir, no.” Said Ballsdrick slowly. “I mean, I’m just an average, poor working class private from the rough end of Westminster but I don’t seem to have benefited from endogenous growth theory at all.”

“That’s because it was all bollocks Ballsdrick. What about you Captain Darling? “asked Brownadder of his Chancellor? “How are you feeling?”

“Not too good Brownadder. But I’ve been scared witless since 2007 when I first opened the ledgers,” said Darling.

{They heard the voices of the returning officers sounding down the trench. ‘Parties prepare to advance to polling stations. One pace forward!’}

The inner circle platoon moved up to the trench ballot boxes and prepared for the final campaign.

“Well this .. ..as they say .. IS IT.” said Brownadder with finality.

“Sir?” Asked little Ballsdrick. ” Do you have a last cunning plan?”

“A plan woven from mendacious tractor stats and bound with obfuscation and spin?” asked Brownadder.

“Yessir!”

“A plan that would see us cut the massive deficit in half, lower taxes and increase public sector wages, and turn my personal poll ratings around faster than I can congratulate an X factor winner?”

“Yessir! Exactly Sir!” said Ballsdrick.

“A plan born of years of intrigue and low political Scots Labour party infighting. A plan built up from a lifetime of plotting in darkened rooms. A cunning plan, hatched honed and polished to brilliance while I was plotting all those years to take over from Colonel Blair. A plan to inspire the core vote, motivate the activists, rekindle the love of the working classes, reflect the aspirations of the middle classes, placate the unions and restore all our fortunes by tomorrow?”

“Yessir. That sort of plan exactly, sir”

“Well... No. Not really. “ said Brownadder unhappily.

“Bugger.”

“ Yes. You’d think after twenty years of scheming for the top job I would have had something ready..”

{There was no more waiting time, After avoiding it for so long, Brownadder would finally have to fight an election. The shrill blasts of the returning officer’s whistles sounded the length of the Westminster corridors and Brownadder and his entire company charged towards the waiting taxpayers...}






The Brownadder boxset.

supplied unboxed.

The Brownadder tries for a Fourth term
Part 2
Part 3

Brownadder's Bunker

Brownadder the Second {rate} Part 1

Brownadder the Second rate. {Part II}

Brownadder the second rate { part III}

Brownadder the second {rate}. {Part IV}

Friday, 2 April 2010

Private Planes. Brownadder comes Fourth.

The sounds of aero engines, machine guns and bombs came loudly from outside the bunker.Captain Brownadder was hiding under his desk and shouting into his field telephone to the Unite Headquarters.

“Hello. This is Captain Brownadder. I’m under attack. I need to send a message to Tony Woodley. Message reads. “You bastard! You’re bombing you’re own side. Those British Airways planes are doing damage to the image of industrial harmony maintained by the Labour party. We are suffering casualties here. I’ve lost 2% in the polls already... What? Not your planes. What? Its the Tories.? “

Just then there was a loud explosion and a sheet of flame blew through the dugout entrance.

The silence of the shocked trench was suddenly broken by cheers and hurrahs from the troops. Into the dugout strode an impressive, aristocratic figure.

“Its me!” chirped Lord Flashcroft, removing a burnt piece of broken aeroplane from his immaculate uniform. He looked at Brownadder’s bottom, which was sticking out from under the desk. “Hullo!” he mused. “Expecting a visit from General Mandelchett?”

“Very amusing,” said Brownadder, climbing out and regaining his composure.”Lord Flashcroft. What are you doing in a Labour safe seat?”

“Urghh!” exclaimed Lord Flashcroft. “You mean I’ve crashed into a working class, whippet stroking, flat cap wearing, tin bath soaking, foxy bingo playing, Coronation Street sky plussing trench? Ye gods! I bet there isn’t a soufflé for miles. All mushy peas and Renault Kangoos on blocks in the front garden. .. Well, can’t be helped. I was lovebombing some lentil munchers in a Lib/Lab marginal when I was blown off course by a bit of Non-Dom flak. Took a bad hit and crashed into your squalid bit of the line. Better break into your expenses and get some decent grub up here and ..What the hell is that?” Lord Flashcroft pointed a gloved hand at a grinning Private Ed Ballsdrick, who had just arrived in the bunker.

“That’s my replacement chancellor,” replied Brownadder. “There’s a problem with the other one."

“ Darling keeps getting the figures all wrong does he?”

“On the contrary. That’s what he doesn’t do. Its infuriating.”

“Well I was never very good at sums. 2x2 is 7 and all that. The Tens of millions of pounds in tax that I told Field Marshal Hague he would get for making me a peer turned out to be just 7 shillings and sixpence."

A smiling Private Ballsdrick came forward. “Is it really you sir. Your Lordship. It is really you. Oh sir, sweet mercy. I haven’t met no real aristocracy like yourself sir. Well. Lord Sugar and Baroness Scotland but they don’t have what you’ve got sir.”

“You mean fine breeding, poise, leadership, sexual magnetism..?”

“No sir. I mean money. Oh sir. We’re so poor in the Labour party we have to take the scraps off the unions in exchange for seats and policies. Sir, we love the aristocracy, we do. Why old Colonel Blair loved the Toffs so much he kept on making them. A million quid a time. But even our little Lord Levy ain’t fit to fasten your cuff links, M’lord.”

Lieutenant Geoff Hoon came in from the cold trench. He spied Lord Flashcroft and began to burble excitedly. “Good heavens and chips! Lord Flashcroft! The daredevil funder! I say. What an honour. To think I would be in the presence of the biggest spender of the marginals. “

“Great” said Lord Flashcroft. “Right get on the phone Private and get a car and driver to get me out of this dump and back to Belgravia. Ask for driver Bob.”

“You mean Bob Ainsworth sir?” asked Ballsdrick uncertainly.

“No. Not Bob Ainsworth. Who would ever want to ask for Bob Ainsworth? No, I heard that General Mandelchett’s driver was a fruity little number called Bob.”

“I believe a fruit was involved,” said Brownadder, “but might not be quite what you had in mind. “

A half hour later both Ballsdrick and Geoff were still listening, entranced, to Lord Flashcroft.

“You should come over to the Tories Geoff. A chap like you isn’t really a Labourite at all. Why you could be making around £3,000 a day as a consultant with us. We’re always on the lookout for talented types in the twenty millionaires. You can even bring the untalented one if you like. Someone has to make the tea, what?” chortled Lord Flashcroft accepting a mug of coffee from Ballsdrick and looking into it. “Or maybe not,” he added, tipping out the contents. "But the RFC is the place to be."

“I’ll certainly think about it,” said Hoon. “I’ve been spinning like a propeller since Iraq. The Right’s Finance Corp could be the place for me. “

“Well don’t wait too long Geoff. The big push is coming. There’s a future to be had being a high flier, rather than handing out Party Flyers that no one will read. Think about it. The war could be over in a few weeks time.” Lord Flashcroft spied the driver in the doorway, picked up his flying coat and prepared to leave. “ The party can’t last forever Geoff. “

Yes, thought Brownadder. How true. This party can’t last forever. Well, not with me in charge it can't, that’s for sure. I need to think of the future. The future for all of us. Lieutenant Geoff and little Ballsdrick and even Captain Darling. ‘A fair future’ he mused. ‘A future fair for all.’

And an image of a little bakery in a remote highland village was conjured up in his mind. Ed Ballsdrick stoking the fires while a smiling Lieutenant Geoff kneaded dough. A contented Brownadder benignly oversaw the little business, while Captain Darling kept the ledgers. But then an image of the rich and successful Colonel Blair and his ghastly wife blossomed in his thoughts.

“Sod that. “ he thought. “A future fair for me. “

And Brownadder grabbed a pen and began to construct a final cunning plan.


To be continued...

Thursday, 1 April 2010

Question time - guess the questions.


Its that time again. Team captain Sarah Teather will also be joined by Alan Johnson, Ken Clarke, Richard Littlejohn and Victoria Core. Show comes from Stevenage.

More entertaining panel than usual.
Usual rules. Maximum of 6 guesses and bonuses for picking the right obfuscations, soundbites, tangents or damn, damn lies.



1 - The chancellor's debate. Does it mean the leader's debate will be an even bigger yawn. Chance for all to talk about saint Vince.

2 - Petrol prices/tax rises. Are the government deliberately trying to stoke up inflation?

3 - CBI. Has Labour now lost the business sector?

4 - Moscow and Islamic terror. Why was this only the fifth item on the news, behind Rooney's ankle? Chance for Johnson to say nothing much.

5 - Knife crime. Alan Johnson says knife crime in Victoria station is a blip. Another chance for him to say much and nothing simultaneously.

6 - Fox hunting. Why do the anti hunt hate Toffs so much? Is it envy? and why did Dave feel the need to get involved. What he gains in countryside votes he loses from city students.

Winner gets to force the BBC to choose a Lib Dem to appear who isn't Sarah Teather.

Delivering on potential?


Internet grocer Ocado has announced that it is to create 2,200 new jobs by developing a new distribution centre, according to reports.
The Guardian reported that the online company plans to fund the new centre through the proceeds of a planned floatation after the election. 
Ocado has said that potential sites for the £100 million, 25-acre project include three locations in the West Midlands and two in the south of England, although a final decision has yet to be made.

Hmm. A new centre. I wonder what for? They already have an ultra hi-tech 1.2 million sq/ft distribution centre in Hatfield. They own no shops. There was talk about them expanding into the North of England a few years back.
A reduced operating loss of £14.4m on sales up 25% at £402m in 2009. £350million has been sunk into Ocado since it was started in 2000 and have talked about a stock exchange listing for years.
There may be a floatation after the election with a valuation figure of £1 billion being mooted. But Ocado has yet to make a profit after a decade in business.

Even more problematic is the 5 year contract to deliver the Waitrose brand within the M25 ends in 2013.John Lewis Partnership are keen to expand their Waitrose Deliver service, which many people think is Ocado anyway. Look at this forum for some of the differences. If Waitrose don't renew the deal to supply Ocado with Waitrose foods, or maybe renew on more favourable terms then what would happen to Ocado? JLP pension fund has a 29% stake in Ocado so I guess they don't want to cause it too many problems.
Anyway...the business model of Home Shopping from either Supermarkets that supply from their own stores with staff already employed or state of the art huge warehouses is not quite settled.

Ocado can deliver for anyone it likes. So who is this distribution centre for ?

EXCLUSIVE: UK to sell Falklands to Argentina to reduce Deficit

Capitalists@Work have been leaked a secret memo which has been doing the rounds between the FCO and the Treasury. In it it reveals a shocking discussion that the Government is considering secret negotiations to sell the Falkland Islands to Argentina; I will upload the document to wikileaks later today.

Although the first drill by Desire Plc was not successful, it is still believed that theere may be up to 60 billion barrels of oil off the Falkland Islands. This is estimated to be about 20% recoverable which means up to 12 billion barrells of oil reserves.

The ownership fo the Falklands has of  course long been disputed and was the subject of a war. However, Government mandarins believe that as long as gaurantees for the safety and self-Government of the Islands can be assured, then the sale to Argentina should go ahead. It is believed that the Argentines are prepared to pay $25 billion for the Islands and to enter into an agreement which ensures Britain would get a small share of future oil revenues.

The negotiations are still secret as the Government of the Falkland Islands has not been informed, but they are trying to get the deal signed just before the election is called in the UK next week.

The money raised would be used to help reduce Britiains large deficit. of course once this deal is done, I fear that it won't be long before we are also hearing about similar discussions surrounding Gibraltar and Spain.

Wednesday, 31 March 2010

Manchester United shock


Newspapers today have revealed that the cash strapped Glaziers are secretly preparing to sell Manchester United's stadium in a bid to stave off a takeover from the 'Red Knights' investment group. The investment group that last week said it would not bid before the end of the season has now made a ' ubstantial' private offer to the club's owners.
Secret talks have been held between Manchester City's new Chairman, Khaldoon Al Mubarak, and Joel Glazer.

Questions emerged about the Glazers ownership of United when it was revealed in December that the family have been struggling for several months to refinance part of the £699 million debt that was taken on when they bought the club in 2005. It now emerges that plans to sell Old Trafford are well advanced with a major hotel chain and a development company and that one of the options for Manchester Utd is a ground share with fierce rivals and rich neighbours Manchester City at "Eastlands."

The 48,000 seat City of Manchester stadium was originally built for the commonwealth games of 2002 and is owned by Manchester city council. However the lease was granted with rights for BOTH teams. The city council felt they had to allow Manchester United an option on the ground in order to show fairness to both sets of rival supporters. But, with the spectacular ‘Theatre of Dreams’ at Old Trafford it was thought that United would never use this option.
But now, with an unwelcome takeover and the credit crunch putting an intolerable strain on the finances it seems that the Glaziers may just do the unthinkable.

We spoke to the planning office and they said there were a number of issues that needed to be cleared. Crowd control and parking issues and the fact that the Eastland stadium would not hold all of Man Utd's current season ticket holders. It is thought that United would restrict its season ticket holders for the 2011 season. More news later.

Sky forced to free Football

Nice to see a regulator getting teeth at last and forcing BSKYB to reduce the price of its Sports packages to rival operators.

The TV industry has been held back by BSKYB's dominance, which is a credit to SKY's fantastic management and skill over the years, but good technologies like ADSL and Cable have been hampered by the competitors inability to provide the quality content needed.

Look what happened to ITV Digital when it had no good content to show- a total loss making failure.

More competition will be good for SKY too and the new ruling allows it acces to Freeview and other platforms. Not often I see a UK Regulator making a sensible decision!

I do though wonder if Ofcom are pushing this now in fear of a change of Government?

Tuesday, 30 March 2010

Chancellors' debate; Another Strategic Vince Error

Saw only highlights of this - bit of a damp squib. All agreeing the end of the world is night but we are not going to tell you what we are going to do about it becuase it is too scary.

Cable coming off best by common acclaim because he can say what he likes and lies about his past record - not that he has any to speak of in Government.

Sad really, Vince gets everything wrong on the big issues, like nationalising Northern Wreck and wanting to raise lots of taxes, or not.

But he made a huge error in being so personally vindictive against George Osborne. Hh how fun to play the crowd! But it rather ruins any chance of a post-election team up with the Tories; that maybe what Vince wants, I don't think his boss Mr Clegg is going to be so happy.

Typical Lib Dems, close to power yet still able to spurn it due to personal bitterness. They can't help being the Jealous party, its a nasty trait.

Monday, 29 March 2010

A Red revolution for football? Yeah Right...

The desperation of the Labour party to be re-electd can be seen in its attempts to garner populist support in its election manifesto.

One such leak is the idea of fnas being able to buy their own football clubs. As followers of Ebbsfleet will know, this is not a guaranteed way to success; they are fighting relegation.

Moreover, the idea of encouraging fans who by definition are not rich, to enter inot a world where they need to compete with the largesse encouraged by Roman Abramovich and Sheik Al-Mansour is utter madness.

Much like the earlier idea of Football clubs as Plc's - an idea that allowed the City to part unwary fans from their cash, this is in reality another scam in the making for the canny to take cash of the foolish.

How the Government can try and sell this idea as somehow being a solution to the current problems in football is beyond me. If it were a less popular industry the idea of a super-tax on players earnings would have been implemented by now. But no, this is the people's game, it is they who must suffer.

As readers will know, there is much wrong with the structure of football - mainly this is the problem of large external cash inputs being direted willy nilly and a refusal of the top clusb to engage in any revenue sharing.

None of the Labour party's recommendations do anything about that, but then that is not the point of this commitment; which is pure political grandstanding.

A lack of Desire

My own portfolio is very top heavy in Oil and Gas explorers. One I have not touched but was about too was Desire petroleum which was exploring off the Falkland Islands. This was causing political troubel too in the form oof a UK-Argentine war of words.

However, the Sunday Times has caused the board to release a statement this morning saying the drilling has not been successful for thier first well. There are 5 more but this is a big setback and the shareprice will react accordingly.

Shame for all those who were gambling on it.
 

Sunday, 28 March 2010

Blue Sunday

End of Q1 2010 and thus far both my teams have blown up. Leeds losing all form (hat tip to The Telegraph for the pic) on the Football apitch and the Conservatives equally letting slip a massive lead.

Both now have a run in of the smae length and are in the same position - no more defeats or mistakes else it is curtains...but also depserately out of form and needing to find some.

A troubling and annoying parallel for me!

Friday, 26 March 2010

Friday Poll - Thatcherite choices...

Something has to give on government spending - what should be top of the list?
NHS
Foreign Aid
Education
Defence
EU membership
Transport
Department for Business
Social Benefits
Local Government
Home Office
Foreign Office
  
pollcode.com free polls

Thursday, 25 March 2010

Question Time predictor


David Dimbleby is joined in Glasgow by Liam Byrne, Baroness Warsi, Julia Goldsworthy, Alex Salmond and Sir Martin Sorrell.

Scots editions tend to be a bit Celtic focused. I doubt the BBC lawyers will let any Purcell / Mafia questions through, but maybe the contracts without tendering ?

Usual rules -up to 6 guesses. Bonus points for correct phrases used or tangents touched. Winner gets to remove or add an item from the latest budget.

Budget - No substance from anyone
Cider tax and fuel tax, personal allowances and 1% NI hit the hardworkingfamilies hardest
Hoon and co - lobbying to be lobotomised
BA and train strikes.
Numbers of hospital managers
New Cameron baby. Was it planned for May 1st?

Jarvis into administration - seeing the future

Jarvis, best known as a rail maintenance company and for being chaired by Steve Norris the fomer Tory transport secretary has gone into administation.

It's a recession and we expect companies to struggle and jarvis has been in the 'difficult' category ever since its plunge into PFI contracts which it never managed to make profitable.

However, now administration has been driven by a fall off in work from network rail. Network Rail had begun some major cuts last year; indeed these have led to strike action  - which are on quite strong ground about safety rather than pay for once from Bob Crow!

There are many threads here that we will see over again in the next few years in the UK:

1) State body makes random cuts (Network Rail is responsible to no one, even though it is state owned, in effect it is its own Quango), roundly condemned as the wrong choices.
2) Private sector contractors get first hit as they don't strike
3) Public sector workers then go on strike.
4) Services fall and economic loss is suffered all round.

We have to have cuts and less spending becuase we have run out of money, but it is all going to get very messy and interestingly the private sector will suffer more do to the logic of Government spending (i.e. the last to go are the actual civil service jobs which have the best perks like pensions)