Friday, 27 February 2026

By-election BS: open thread

The 'first draft of history' on this one is quite difficult to essay: the number of variables in play has been quite remarkable, and continues in the same manner.  4-D chess?  Try 5 or 6.  The consequences for Labour, in particular, are complex and highly contingent on many things.  (Could have been even more amusing if Your Party had been at the races - and in future it might just be.)

But we'll all have some early thoughts.  Here are a couple of mine:

  • WTF was Reform doing, fielding a prize prat like Goodwin?  Just about the worst candidate imaginable for fighting a working-class / Muslim seat.  And Farage a man with his finger on the pulse?  I have heard only two 'excuses': (1) this was always a big stretch for Reform - something like no. 440 on their list of potential targets, IIRC;  (2) "Farage wanted to slap down a potential leadership rival" (yes, I've seen that surmised on the airwaves - but possibly a hypothesis born of the same bewilderment as my own).
  • Obviously this is a Big Test for them / him, but right now I'd say Team Starmer is determined to tough it out.  (No guarantee of success, of course.)
  • Polanski will now be striving to get his lovable piss-artist act together properly - which may in turn piss off some of his "support" as he seeks to ditch the "our policy is dictated by Conference and the leadership is only allowed to parrot it" doctrine of the Greens: which can't possibly survive if he's to capitalise on this.
I could go on ... but I said I wouldn't - so over to t'readership.

ND

Tuesday, 24 February 2026

Mandelson: a nation rejoices

Was there a home or a hostelry in the land where a cheer didn't go up when the news broke?

Not knowing precisely what the law is as regards publicly discussing live (potentially) criminal cases, I'll settle for a few random, unworthy observations.

  • Gotta love the way Gordon Brown solemnly offered PC Plod his forensic account of how outrageously Mandelson betrayed him - sorry, betrayed the Nation - when in office just before and after the 2010 GE.  Hell hath no fury ... and it's never difficult to tell the difference between a dour Scotsman and a ray of sunshine.  Etc
  • Also enjoyed seeing Mandy crammed into the back seat of ... a Ford Focus!  Of all cars.  With three other coppers.  He won't have sat in a seat as lowly as that for the best part of 40 years!
  • Channel 4's "sources close to Mandelson" said that when Andy was arrested but not him, he reckoned the storm had passed.  Well, that's Mandy - always aggressive, shameless optimism in public, as we've said here before.  But - how much sleep did Mandy get, do we think, after Andy was arrested?
  • Nobody has much scrupled to disguise the exact location of his "Camden" house (= Regents Park).  Nice house!  
The show rumbles on.  Brightens up a damp February.

ND

UPDATE - now being reported that at 4am this morning, just a short while after PC Plod let him go home, Mandy started briefing against the Met Police!  The modus operandi never changes - take the initiative, brief, spin, attack attack attack ! 

Monday, 23 February 2026

Crossing Putin's Red Lines

It's an observation often made, here and elsewhere, that the Ukraine-supporting West (as well as Ukraine itself) has many times crossed a large number of Putin's soi-dissant 'Red Lines' [1] since he mounted his inept, failed full-scale invasion of that country exactly four years ago tomorrow.  Before and during this string of Putin-prodding acts of lèse-majesté, there was a head of steam building up among the weaker hands that he would respond with nuclear retaliation.  Well, he never has - despite waving his wiener in that direction very demonstratively, several times.[2] 

Well now.  Last week, Ukraine's extremely effective campaign of deep strikes - sometimes very deep - into Mother Russia itself moved into new territory.  In the past they've blown up entire ammunition depots (with explosions registering on earthquake detectors); seriously incommoded the Bear's very large petrochemical industry; and made some telling attacks on selected hi-tech armaments manufactories.  Not to mention the astounding Operation Spiderweb.  Oh, and very probably a handful of assassinations in Moscow.  

But last week they excelled themselves

... a FP-5 Flamingo missile strike against the Russian state-owned Votkinsk Machine Building Plant in Votkinsk, Udmurtia Republic (roughly 1230 kilometers from the international border). The Ukrainian General Staff reported that the Votkinsk Plant produces Yars-series intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM), submarine-launched Bulava ballistic missiles (SLBM), 9M723-1 type Iskander-M ballistic missiles, and 9-S-7760 Kinzhal aeroballistic missiles.  Russian opposition outlet Astra and a Ukrainian open-source intelligence project reported that the plant also produces Topol-M missile systems and Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missiles (IRBM). Geolocated footage published on February 20 shows smoke rising from the Votkinsk Plant.  Udmurtia Republic Governor Aleksandr Brechalov acknowledged that Ukrainian drones struck and damaged an unspecified facility in Udmurtia.

Here's the thing: as part of the sabre-rattling, a couple of years ago Putin updated his public policy on use of nuclear weapons, in a manner designed to convince the West that the threshold for a Russian nuclear response is now quite a bit lower.   The new doctrine states that the use of nuclear weapons is possible in the event of the disabling of critical nuclear facilities, or massive attacks that pose such a threat.

So how does he classify last week's attack?  If he was looking for an excuse to go nuclear - in the middle of the current "trilateral negotiations" - it rather looks as though he might find one.

I say this simply as an observation.  Let's see if we all have further 'observations' in the course of the next days and weeks.

ND

________________

[1] Too many to list them all, but here are some (NOT including the demands that NATO withdraw from the 'new member states' etc etc made before the invasion):

  • No Western arms of any kind to be supplied 
  • No MiG 29s from former E.Bloc countries
  • No former USSR tanks ditto
  • No weapons whatsoever from Germany
  • No HIMARs
  • No Patriot missiles
  • No Storm Shadows
  • No Western tanks
  • No F-16s
  • No strikes inside Russia
  • No Ukrainian counter-offensives into territory already captured

He probably would have included "no 6-month incursions into Kursk" - if he'd imagined for one instant that the Ukrainians were capable of it.  (Or given reliable reports by his ever-mendacious military.)

[2] Of course, Xi has told him to wind his nuclear neck in - an injunction that is probably still in force.

Friday, 20 February 2026

Does. Starmer. Never. Learn. Anything?

How would anyone summarise Starmer's most recent month's worth of self-inflicted misery?  Easy: he is accused of severe, sustained failure of judgement on personnel matters - in the face of prior knowledge and warnings.   Oh, and of course disowning responsibility afterwards.  No internalised ethics adviser inside that Max Headroom skull; and no internalised HR adviser either. 

So, when needing a new Cabinet Secretary (and how did that requirement come about, pray ..?) what does he do but pick someone with a track record of bullying accusations[1].  FFS, why?  OK, the Labour wimmin have been braying about the need to break up his "boys' club", but (a) so what?  (b) Sue Gray, anyone? 

Meanwhile, someone on Team Starmer is continuing the "good work"[2] with daily injections of supposedly ultra-pop, and/or left-pleasing "initiatives" - i.e. belligerent statements of empty intent - for Starmer to deliver as a mighty smokescreen for the non-stop string of genuinely damaging cock-ups.  It's not a prime-ministerial look: and it ain't working.

Here's a simple prediction: the meejah has got it in for him to the extent that an editorial edict of "find a story that brings him down" has replaced "stay onside with Team Starmer no matter what" as a standing headline of the newsroom's Orders of the Day.   They'll be doing whatever it takes to find stuff on the Romeo woman, too - given that there are evidently skeletons in her closet.  There'll always be a disgruntled / slighted / insulted / sidelined / bitter ex-colleague out there.  

A race, then, between which of them is turfed out first.  Popcorn supplies are running low.

ND

_______________

[1] Let nobody fall for "there was one complaint (a long time ago in a galaxy far away) ... but no case to answer".

[2] Of course, it may be that McSweeney is still having his instructions chanelled into TS from wherever he's skulking.  Mandy's too - even if from one of Deripaska's yachts.  Well, why not?  They are trusted advisers, no?

Saturday, 14 February 2026

When does the AI bubble burst - and what then?

That AI is currently inflating a mighty economic bubble is a commonplace observation.  A vast proportion of US economic growth (as conventionally measured) and stock market value is related to AI.  Every damned company on the planet is trying to portray itself as somehow AI-contributing or AI-powered - and they are frequently getting a gratifying share-price kicker from it[1].  Presumably, the pension industry is pretty addicted by now.

In the real world, the vast and (we are told) exponentially-growing demand for electricity - 100% secure baseload electricity to boot - made by data centres is seriously distorting electric power-system planning for many a nation.  Coming atop the average grid's already torturing itself - and its hapless bill-payers - to accommodate the diametrically opposed demands of a decentralised renewables-based future, this is a serious spanner in the works.  And of course governments everywhere are anxious to play host to new data centres, Starmer's as much as any; and are making this a policy priority.   But the (would-be) data centre builders have twigged that these contortions on the part of conventional grid operators may very probably not prove successful - and thus are talking about joint ventures with nuclear generators and ... sponsoring nuclear fusion development! [2]  Yup, it's a completely irrational bubble.     

But what does that tell us about AI itself?   Not much, beyond the obvious fact that it has gripped the universal imagination to the extent that dollar signs rotate in every businessman's eyeballs.  

Well.  Railways had a mania, and many a railway company went bust.  The technology and much of the infrastructure they built is still evolving and very much in use.  We had a dotcom bubble.  It burst, alright, but it didn't mean the internet was a phantasm.  Enron was a bubble: but it didn't mean the Enron vision for how energy markets should be configured was wrong.  (Even China is trying to figure out how to bring that revolution into its own constipated energy sector.)  Etc etc - these techie-based phenomena are not like Dutch tulip mania: nobody needs tulips, but everyone needs railways / electricity / the www / .... and, probably, we'll continue to want and need the advances that are made under the banner of 'AI'.

So: if history is any guide, it'll be a painful financial collapse; a reshuffle of the runners and riders in the "AI industry" (for those who don't break a leg & are not shot by the vet); and the underlying new tech rumbles on to find a more stable way to become a permanent fixture in all our economies and our ways of life. 

Views?  Predictions?  Timing ..?

ND

UPDATE: a bucket of cold water over certain claims for AI:

________________

[1]  Even Drax, FFS - a floundering, downsizing biomass-burning power company.  

[2]  On the eve of the 2007-09 financial crisis, a high-end energy-specialist VC firm of my acquaintance was looking for opportunities to invest in unsubsidised nuclear powerplant development.  When money is aimlessly sloshing about on that scale, that's when you really know a financial crash is coming soon.

Friday, 6 February 2026

Mandelson, document-release ... and Polly Toynbee

So what to make of the latest state of play over Mandy?

I'd say it's really clear: Team Starmer is utterly determined to tough this out, and they reckon they can do it: their man is no conscience-stricken wimp, likely to flake on them one fine morning.   Grim determination is no guarantee of success, of course: but (a) it is at least a necessary condition of success; and (b) these are scheming, desperate people with a lot of levers available to them.

> the way things developed in Parliament on Wednesday shows that Team S's going-in point was to resist document disclosure, period.  They were thwarted procedurally by the unholy alliance of Badenoch + Rayner, but we know what is plainly their aim: not to release docs. 
> they are 'framing' like crazy to the media, and it still largely gets swallowed whole.  As well as "It's all about Mandelson's lies - to my staff (not me, of course)" and "I wanted to release the docs yesterday" (see previous post), we read: 
  • "There will be no leadership challenge, because ... [Rayner = tax dodger, still under investigation // Burnham = disqualified // Streeting = Mandelson-best-buddy // etc]." 
  • "PC Plod has a serious point about not prejudicing their investigation / potential charges being brought."   
  • "So-oo many docs - this is going to take months and months."   

Etc etc.  Yup, they are going for that oldest, most intellectually dismal, most sordidly shameless  tactic of all: playing for time - and it's often successful.  Let me give you a recent parallel: a case I have been reading up lately from my own patch (energy).  A big corporate - Drax plc - had a run-in with an employee-whistleblower whom Drax fired, and who brought an employment case, early in March last year.  Halfway through the unusually lengthy Employment Tribunal, they settled: by all accounts it amounted to a capitulation by Drax.  Meejah organisations sought release of the court documents - which, had the case continued, they'd have had access to, it was a public hearing.  Drax has stonewalled for nearly eleven months, only finally releasing the docs under a court order at the end of Jan.  And even now, the docs are (a) not the complete set, and (b) in some cases, heavily redacted (on the usual grounds: "commercial sensitivity / privacy / yadder yadder").  In which time Drax has managed to secure 4 more years of juicy new subsidy, and a 40% increase in its share price, from which many execs will benefit materially, in cash.

If a corporation can behave like that, how much more easily can HMG, with all the resources of the State and the added killer pretext of "national security" (see below)?  My prediction: we ain't gonna get anything much before those May elections - and we'll never get anything they truly don't want us to see.  

Which brings us to La Toynbee, whose general run of risible Guardian offerings is occasionally but reliably punctuated with something half-worthwhile.  Here's her latest.  You need to look past the usual fatuous fawning - the idea that Starmer is "a decent PM" (she once idolised Gordon Brown, too - and Tony Blair before him) to get to the blunt & forthright expression of utter disgust at the "send-him-to-the-Tower treachery and treason".  And here's a little nugget (my emphasis): 

... he gave a wretched display of it in the Commons with a fatal attempt to hold back some vital documents on Mandelson’s vetting and appointment. Never mind that it was for sincere security reasons – mainly fear of what abuse of the US president the papers might contain – Starmer failed to measure the ferocity of the storm on his own benches

That Trump angle  -  another subtle bit of Team Starmer framing?  Well, maybe: but it's a neat idea I hadn't seen aired elsewhere.

My prediction stands: many months of Strategic Starmer Stonewalling to come.  Don't change your New Year predictions for 'name of PM on 24.12.2026' just yet awhile.  Meantime - more popcorn!

ND

UPDATE: her Gruaniad colleague Aditya Chakrabortty slaps down La Toynbee's characterisation of Starmer as a 'decent PM'. 

The refrain that Starmer is a “decent” man does not fit his record of deceiving his way to the top of the Labour party, sitting on his hands during the massacre in Gaza or clamping down on protest against it.  

Oh, those feuding Graun writers !

Thursday, 5 February 2026

We know the Mandelson "vetting" was a stitch-up

As ever, Starmer had a carefully crafted speech for deployment on Thursday.  He vehemently - very vehemently - wants us to believe that whatever Parliament thought it had secured the day before, it's really all about a catalogue of "Mandelson's lies" which Starmer "had wanted to hand over yesterday" (if PC Plod hadn't told him not to hand them over; yeah, right).  Nice try, Kier; but what your MPs actually want - and won't easily be deflected from - is what McSweeney's role in all this was, blow by, errr, blow.

And what McSweeney was up to is clear enough - orchestrating a sham of a vetting process.  How do I know this?  Because on top of outright secret sources (and who knows what they knew?), within the security services is an OSINT desk - open-source intelligence gathering.  People whose job is to trawl everything available from open sources.  And in this day and age of Bellingcat and the extraordinary online resources they've tapped into and made public, and when you have the resources of HMG, GCHQ etc at your disposal, OS is one helluva resource, properly marshalled.  Be it immediately added that imposing QA on what is found online etc is a very significant analytic task, when all the OS stuff is assembled, tinfoil-hat dross / disinformation / Маскировка and all.  But that's not the point in this case.  What can be said for certain is that whatever was available in OS, worldwide, on Mandelson - and everybody knows that includes, e.g., the Deripaska affair - it was ready to hand within Whitehall.  And cumulatively, it was all anybody needed to know to conclude he was a non-starter for Ambassador by any rational criteria.

Ready to hand - but seemingly not deployed.  In other words - and let's charitably dump this all on the convenient fall-guy - McS ran a sham exercise in which Mandelson was invited to tell whatever lies he liked; and he was then taken at his word, without the security services being tasked to give it the old red-ink marginal annotation routine.  Because if Mandelson had simply given them a big assemblage of lies, they could have demolished it, line by line. 

The alternative explanations - that all his lies were indeed fisked, or even that he simply didn't lie at all - and still Starmer made the appointment, well, that would be even worse for Starmer.  But since PC Plod is conveniently withholding the list of lies, we can only speculate...

ND

Monday, 2 February 2026

Mandelson: endless, shameless optimism of self-promotion

A few months ago we had cause to consider Mandy and his little ways.  "Always plotting, always thinking creatively, always strategising" - even, or perhaps especially, when his back is against the wall [are we allowed to say that?].  Since then, he's been defenestrated from the Washington embassy and caught pissing up George Osborne's side street.  But - the usual modus operandi - he waited for just a short time before he was back on manoeuvres.  As Guido has documented, before the lame attempt to offer Trump-whispering advice in the Speccie, Mandy had been hawking himself around the meejah, and for some reason Laura Kuenssberg and her people decided to gratify him with a big set-piece Sunday interview.  (Why??)  Another carefully-crafted foray; and when he decided his week's work around SW1 hadn't quite had the desired effect, why then it was followed by another crafty tweaking of his tortuous, oblique "apology".  And, as Private Eye noted, for the Mandy of 1998 it was Don't you dare say I'm a gay man!  Now, it's Don't forget to say I'm a gay man!   

Now here's the thing.  These two big self-PR drives, separated by several months, have one significant factor in common (over and above his unvarying MO and the eternal willingness of the meejah to rise to his bait): on both occasions we may be sure he knew full well there was a barrow-load of shit coming his way.  In such circumstances, maybe keep your head down? [are we allowed to say that?]  No, not Mandy: all the instincts are still to get on the front foot and try to shape the agenda. 

And what a barrow of ordure this one turns out to be!  Has there been a bigger scandal since Profumo?  As the hacks trawl the 3,000,000 new docs, more outrageous stuff turns up by the hour - and how much more might there yet be?  

But, you know what?  He'll stay down [are we ..?] for a bit: but somehow there will be a dream of redemption and another foray into the Westminster limelight.  Maybe just a bit longer interval this time, though ...

ND



Thursday, 29 January 2026

James Allcock RIP, rogue [2]

Continued from last week

So what disturbed Allcock's stately scam ship as it sailed serenely through the market?  The first issue arose in the mid '80s when the laws of supply / demand / price caught up with him, as they always do eventually.  You can suspend the laws of nature, but only for as long as you are willing to throw money at it.  

What happened was this.  He'd secured vast quantities of gas at ultra low prices (the units don't matter, but it was single-digit pence per therm) in the late '60s and early '70s - see part 1.  This was amply sufficient, right through the 70's.  But by the '80s there had been two oil crises, 1973 and 1979; and the price of oil had risen tenfold (sic).  The prices BG was paying for its gas had jogged upwards a bit with inflation and other adjustments, but nothing on that scale.  So the big producers, who were always oil companies au fond,[1] stopped drilling for gas, concentrating on the still bounteous North Sea oil reserves.  There were whole years in the '80s where not a single gas well was drilled - not for exploration, nor even for extending already-producing gas fields.  A complete gas-investment strike by the producers.  BG did the sums, and correctly assessed they'd be facing a supply crisis in due course.  And new gasfields took an absolute minimum of 2 years to bring onstream[2], often much longer if outright new exploration was to be involved.

Still, BG had a monopoly to go with its monopsony, and they knew who was going to pay for the business of digging them out of that hole - its captive customers!  So Allcock did the rounds of the big producers, intimating that BG was now willing to pay prices above 20 p/th - a huge increase - for any new gas fields they could bring to the table in the next few years.  This, of course, set off a new round of stately and highly enjoyable negotiations I described last time, as the producers dug down into the archives for overlooked gas discoveries, and indeed started drilling again for new resources.  It worked: high prices have that effect.  (I've written before about another, hilarious aspect of this episode as the crazy, artificial boom-and-bust cycle ran its inevitable course.)  Thus did Allcock and his monopoly powers - a dismally blunt instrument indeed - avert the first storm that broke over his head.

The second, however, was to be terminal, albeit a protracted affair.  On purely ideological grounds, Nigel Lawson persuaded Thatcher to privatise BG, a task given to Peter Walker.  To make a long story short, in 1986 he succeeded in getting the public to buy the shares ("Tell Sid", for those with 40-year memories), and the legislation ended BG's de jure monopoly / monopsony.  But it did nothing to eliminate or even, in the short- to medium-term undermine, its de facto stranglehold, not least because in the initial legislation, no regulator was appointed!  

And it was Allcock who commanded BG's first and highly effective line of defence: making sure no other bugger could obtain gas with which to go into competition with the monopoly.  In the next part we'll tell the story of his long, ruthless but ultimately unsuccessful rearguard action.  And, no, I haven't forgotten the promised account of the colourful abuses of its monopoly that BG perpetrated over the years - some of which will feature in part 3 and others in a later episode.

ND

______________________________

[1] Gas was always seen as a more-or-less unwanted by-product - something that came up from most oil-wells anyway, or something you discovered, disappointingly, when you'd really been looking for oil.  In some places around the world, by-product gas was simply flared

[2] A lead time as short as 2 years would be for a geologically simple gas field in shallow waters, close to existing infrastructure, that had already been discovered but never developed because the price BG had been willing to pay was just too low - the producer had better uses for its development budget

Starmer's China Triumph: errr ... visa-free travel!

The scene: a small, bare office on an industrial estate near Beijing Capital International airport.  Sitting nervously on a metal chair, nursing a plastic beaker of water and facing a plain table adorned with two small pennants, one a Union Jack and the other the Chinese flag, is The Most Important Man In Government Jonathan Powell, legendary Xi-whisperer (self-styled) and Starmer's right-hand man on all foreign matters. 

A loud voice off, shouting into room:   You bow low!

Powell leaps to his feet, turns to face the figure walking in through the door and doubles over at the waist with as much gravitas as he can muster.

Enter Yu Bau-Lo, 3rd Deputy Under Secretary at the Chinese Ministry of Protocol.  

Yu:  Mr Powell, get up.  Very busy.  Have many executions of Ming gang to supervise.  What you want?

Powell:   Err, Mr Yu, greetings ... I, err, we, err, came good with the approval for your new London embassy, just like we discussed.

Yu:  Yes.  So what?

Powell:   Err,  we were, err, hoping there might be something in return?  Something big, that Sir Kier could announce?  

Yu:  He could say "I got to meet President Xi.  In person.  Camera present, photo taken."  This is great honour.  Everyone in world deeply impressed.

Powell:  Err, we were hoping for something, like, err, tangible? 

Yu:  We will send copy of photograph meeting with President Xi.  Can have framed.

Powell:   But, but ... we need a deal - everyone needs a deal these days!

Yu:  OK, (looks through notebook entitled "Sops") - we give you visa-free travel!  Big concession - only Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia, EU, Canada, Turkey etc etc etc get visa-free travel.  North Korea desperate for visa-free travel!

Powell, crestfallen:   Surely there must be something more than that?  The embassy ...

Yu:  Don' push luck Mr Powell.  OK, final word: half-rate tariff on Scotch whisky.  

Powell, utterly crushed:  Thanks ... we're very grateful.

Yu, turning to leave as shots ring out offstage:  OK.  You go now.  (With back turned)  Anyhow, Chinese people don' drink Scotch any more - Indian whisky really good these days**.


As overheard by ND

__________________

** It's true!

Sunday, 25 January 2026

Would he, wouldn't he? Yes, "Burnham Would"

Sorry, but the Macbeth idiom is irresistible.  Presumably, after a full week of letting it be understood that any move by Burnham would be stopped dead in its tracks by the NEC, the Mcsweeney coven was hoping that he is

... not without ambition, but without / The illness should attend it

But no: whichever witches our Andy encountered on Newton Heath knew their man better: 

When you durst do it, then you were a man

The Mcsweeney bluff was in truth a really easy one to call.  So they block Burnham tomorrow: what chance then, for whatever hapless stooge Labour puts up in the by-election?  "I know you all really wanted Andy ... but I'm hoping you'll support me now ..."  A great rallying cry indeed, with only the thin chance of a haphazard but possibly lucky 3-way split to save Gorton & Denton for Labour.  

Shakespeare again: let's imagine Mcsweeney's day-dream.  The scene is some darkened Labour office in Manchester: Mcsweeney has Burnham marched in, sits him down, offers him a cup of instant coffee and says

Yeah, right, in his dreams.  For, (at dearieme's suggestion BTL) Burnham replies:

                      That's all you've got?  Thou knave, thou dunce inane
                      Starmer will rue the day he gave you rein! 

Great spectator sport.  Amusing, too, to see Miliband's response for the cameras yesterday, impishly saying Burnham would be "a massive asset" in Parliament and that he hoped Gorton and Denton party members would have "the option" of selecting him as a candidate.   He also hopes, of course, that Burnham would make him Chancellor.

More popcorn!

ND

© Nick Drew 2026

Mayor Burnham! - may I deign to call you Andy?

We all do have the high'st regard for you 


Wednesday, 21 January 2026

Rogues I Have Known: James Allcock, part 1

Pic:  Daily Telegraph

There won't be many readers who have heard of James Allcock (died at the age of 90, obit here, which you should maybe read first). De mortuis nil nisi bonum, obviously; and I'll immediately say, he was a very nice guy who commanded tremendous loyalty, which (generally) speaks well for a man.  But he was also, how shall we say, a tough customer.  Being, as he was, the head buyer for the old British Gas when it was a monopoly.  I shall explain.  At length.

BG took on the form we most associate with it when North Sea gas hove into view in the late '60s.  The late (and not very lamented) Dennis Rooke was given responsibility for converting the nation rapidly from town gas to natural gas, in which he succeeded, using methods that left a lasting and very equivocal legacy - a story for another day.   It seems from the above-referenced obit, Allcock (I never knew this) had a hand in it, too.

However, it was in his prime as BG's head buyer of gas from upstream producers that I first met him.  Did I say 'buyer'?  BG enjoyed, not only a statutory monopoly, but also a monopsony, which it enforced zealously.  So if your company had discovered gas in the North Sea (and later, off the west coast, too), you had nowhere to go but to headmaster Allcock's study.  The only question was, how painful the experience was going to be.  He had only two forces providing a weak form of discipline on his rapacity:  (a) some customers (particularly industrials)[1] still had the ability to use alternative fuels, mostly oil of one grade or another; and (b) the Norwegians, at least, had alternative outlets for their gas.  Otherwise, he could generally have his wicked way with you; and he & his opposite numbers in equally monopsonistic European utilities used to swap notes gleefully on how roughly they'd rogered their victims.

That said, he was a perfect gentleman, and built a department consisting of three teams of negotiators to carry out his purchasing policy.  You need to know that these negotiations were for astonishing amounts of gas, since Allcock insisted on buying the entire quantity of gas in a given field, which might be producing the stuff for as many as 50 years[2].  So the amounts of money on the table were correspondingly stupendous; the sellers were very big companies themselves (basically, the '7 Sisters' of yore plus the Norwegians, and various hangers-on); and the negotiations were interminable.  Two years for the sale of a single large field's gas was par for the course. 

Each of his teams was led by another perfect gentleman[3] and some courteous juniors, whose conduct was extremely stylised in the oriental fashion.  There were three juniors to a team, and each had their allotted role.  #2 would occasionally get to speak out loud in the meetings; #3 might get to whisper something to #2; and #4 was silent, taking notes.  There would also always be one or more of BG's exceptionally proprietorial external lawyers, who did all the drafting.  Indeed, all the meetings were held at the offices of BG's lawyers, the then firm of Denton Hall Burgin & Warren.  This was to the advantage of all the participating negotiators, since lunch came in the form of a Fortnum's hamper, and the fridge was well stocked too.

Thus, it was possible to be thoroughly rogered by Allcock and his teams, and enjoy the whole process greatly.   One or two of the juniors might have been redbrick, but inevitably the main players on all sides (whichever oil company was selling its gas) were Oxbridge: even the US sellers, and in some cases the Norwegians, made sure to field the "right people" for this arcane negotiation ritual.  Literary references (which would sometimes find their way into the drafting) and Latin jokes were prized currency.

This stately and splendid abuse of BG's statutory powers lasted from the late '60s to the early 90's.  Allcock had to weather a couple of storms - which he did with panache - before eventually competition started developing for real, as I'll describe in part 2.  I'll also give some examples of the outrageous abuse of its monopoly BG perpetrated when this regime still had the power to do so.  

And, to cut to the chase for part 1, Allcock - in his urbane manner - fought the onset of competition all the way.  Given that BG retained a de facto monopoly/monopsony for years after it lost its statutory rights, and never lost its natural monopoly on the pipeline system until it relinquished it voluntarily by demerger, his powers to do so were baleful and very great.  But when, in the early 90's, it was manifestly almost over for his way of doing business, I had a drink with him one day and asked him this: why this stubborn rearguard defence, when the end-point was clear?  I drew the analogy with Germany's immense WW2 losses on the Eastern front: if they'd called it quits after Kursk, say, and fallen back in good order to the German border, Berlin may never have fallen to Russia[4].  As it was, fighting for every hectare they lost countless men for arguably a much worse result.  Likewise, BG was (at the time I posed the question) still mulishly refusing to concede market share, and using its enduring natural monopoly on the pipeline system to make life as difficult as possible for its new competitors, once they arrived on the scene, even knowing that there was every intention on the part of government to make sure the new entrants succeeded.  If BG had fallen back on its then-remaining de jure monopoly of the residential gas market (which it didn't lose until much later) - devilishly difficult for competitors to make inroads into, and not nearly as profitable as the infinitely more accessible industrial & commercial sectors - it could have held that till kingdom come.

He smiled, poured us another drink, and said: "Every day's delay is another monopoly pound in our pockets."

More to follow.  In the meantime: RIP, James, you old rogue. 

ND

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[1] For a sustained period until the late 1980s it was illegal in the UK, and in most of Europe and the USA, too, to use natural gas for power generation .  Bizarre, but true.

[2] The largest North Sea gas field, Leman, started production in 1969 and is still producing to this day

[3] In the early years, at least - things changed towards the end, but, no names, no packdrill 

[4] A counterfactual for the historians, obviously.  But it served my illustrative purpose.

Tuesday, 20 January 2026

Trump charts new extremes of human nature

At the weekend I read this short piece, entitled:

"Our Impossibly Small-souled President"

The author, one Jeffrey Blehar, is no great artist or philosopher - but his coinage, small-souled trashiness, is on point.  And mention of 'small-souledness' inevitably brings to mind the classic descriptive accounts of the Great-Souled Man, starting with the ancient Greeks - Homer, Plato, Aristotle - amplified by Shakespeare, Goethe (to an extent) and of course Nietzsche.  Let's keep the citations to a minimum and satisfy ourselves with extracts from Aristotle's canonical account: 

The great-souled man is fond of conferring benefits, but ashamed to receive them ... He returns a service done to him with interest ... It is also characteristic of great-souled men never to ask help from others, or only with great reluctance, but to render aid willingly; and to be haughty towards men of position or fortune, but courteous towards those of moderate station ... it is vulgar to lord it over humble people ... He must care more for the truth than for what people think ... he does not bear a grudge.

And so on.  It's not difficult to conclude that Trump embodies the exact antithesis of all this, in every dimension: quite an achievement.  Not in terms of great villainy - think Iago, Judas, or the Serpent - but great smallness!  And quite a remarkable state of affairs, that one such as he should be in the position he is.  Age, thou art shamed!  Rome, thou hast lost thy breeds of noble blood!

Of course, in literature the extremes of human nature are frequently documented in poetic depictions of tragedy.  We've no shortage of dramatic events in the flesh - but where is the great art that so often emerges from times of great turmoil?  If tragedy is the classic vehicle for depictions of the great-souled man, what is the medium for portraying his opposite?  Where is our Shakespeare, our Milton?

ND  

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Afterthought: though hardly a man of worldscale literary merit, we must note with dismay the passing of cartoonist Scott Adams, whose perspicacity in identifying Trump as The Man Most Likely To, way back before Trump's selection as Republican candidate first time around, was detailed, shrewd and very impressive.  All of a piece with the astute micro-insights delivered over the years by Dilbert.  Needless to say, the small-souled one managed to make his commentary on Adams' death all about himself.  Of course he did: I rest my case.

Monday, 12 January 2026

Venezuela through Russian and Chinese eyes

In the previous post I suggested: 

... the Venezuela adventure is ... forcing Putin to eat more shit as he is lamely reduced to asking that his tanker crew will be nicely looked after.  Yep, lots of random shit happens on Planet Trump ... both Russia and Xi are utterly dismayed, as ever, by the casual ease with which perfidious western nations sweep away years and even decades of patient strategic effort: this time Venezuela, the latest in a long series  

- that series including Libya, Syria and Iran-as-Middle-East-counterweight (and supplier of arms to Russia).

Taking Russia first: Putin really had set a lot of strategic store by Venezuela - proportionately, a lot more than Xi, for whom these things are merely road-bumps, however annoying and tactically unpredictable.  Ditto Syria, ditto Iran.  Putin is beholden to N.Korea, FFS, at the same time as trying to project a superpower profile, so these setbacks are pretty hard to swallow.  The Bear with the sore head is unlikely to cut anyone any favours on its western borders, witness the performative missile strike on Lviv; but he'll be watching Iran with an awful sense of déjà-vue doom.  Where to parade his plonker now, except in the Donbas?

China looks very different.  Xi pretty much believes in regional hegemony!  So Venezuela may be a bit of a setback to a maturing long-term plan, and oil is oil; but hey, Taiwan is the only thing he really cares about, period.  

Also, he's looking forward to wiping the floor with Trump - again - this year.  He played Trump brutally last yearYou say 'tariffs', Mr Trump?  Nope, and we raise you rare earth metals.  Now, hand over your very best chips, lots of them, before we reduce your remaining industries to rust and dust ... That's the way, Donald, there's a good boy.  Now run along.

And 2026 is the mid-terms ...  Venezuela, pffft.  Trump and Xi are scheduled for a couple of summits this year, and the Chinese will be expecting to ream him again.  What else of gigantic strategic value will Trump give away this time?  The dawning of the Chinese era stands to be accelerated materially in just a few months. Scary stuff. 

ND

UPDATE:  see thread below - this is getting complicated !  

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2026/jan/17/china-blocks-nvidia-h200-ai-chips-that-us-government-cleared-for-export-report

Thursday, 8 January 2026

Ukraine - more first drafts of history

Last year's Predictions compo invited short essays on Ukraine.  I largely ducked this one but there was a very decent effort by Caesar H, including: 

Trump comes up with a Big Deal that makes sense to him, Zelensky signs off on it begrudgingly, Putin doesn't. Trump, having paper thin skin, takes this badly ... by year end some of Russia's gains will have reversed, and there'll still be an embedded Ukrainian presence in Russia, and Trump will start suggesting giving them nukes in response to Russia's usual bellicosity about using them. Think of the geopolitical version of "I offered you a way out asshole, you slapped my hand away, so I'm going to crush your nuts until you cry like a little bitch".    I expect this theory to disproven by February of course 

Putting aside the nukes bit, it was actually a very fine prediction.  Putin seemed at first to be playing a decent hand with Trump, but his early political gains have been squandered (does anyone really know how to play Trump?  Even Netanyahu?).  I believe Ukr still holds a few square meters of Russian soil to this day; and although none of Russia's gains as of Jan 2025 have been reversed, several of their advances during 2025 have indeed been reversed - though the definition of "advances" changed during the year**.   

I have no idea what the collective western brainpower around the most recent "coalition of the willing" table thinks they've come up with this week.  They all know, for 100% certain  - even, or perhaps especially Witless, who's had several lengthy in-person lectures from L'il Volodya - that the idea of NATO boots on the ground / air patrols in Ukr airspace are an absolute Red Line for Putin, despite the endless red lines of his that the west calmly breezed through in 2022 / 23 / 24.  

Is it a Cunning Plan?  Designed to get a wholly predictable 'Неt' that will enrage the Orange One?  If so, the parallel Venezuela adventure is reinforcing the C-Plan nicely, forcing Putin to eat more shit as he is lamely reduced to asking that his tanker crew will be nicely looked after.  What a piece of serendipity that is!  Yep, lots of random shit happens on Planet Trump.

I don't have a conclusion on Ukraine right now, because a massive and fairly binary pivot-point looms (and of course may fade away again, as have several before).  Just a few observations:

  • while there's still nothing to stop Putin having what he wants in terms of the Donbas (as I've said all along), he doesn't seem willing to pay the price (or at very least is understandably reluctant), and still hopes to get it on a plate via a 1-1 with Trump
  • the only possible way he'll get more than just the Donbas (in terms of territory or in any other dimension) is also from Trump
  • once again, both Russia and Xi are utterly dismayed, as ever, by the casual ease with which perfidious western nations sweep away years and even decades of patient strategic effort: this time Venezuela, the latest in a long series
We'll shortly have another post on this last point.

ND

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** Russia has more-or-less given up on even small-scale armoured thrusts (they all get eliminated piecemeal), or even the motorbike / quad-bike "dragoon" charges of 2024, settling instead for a pretty feeble doctrine of "infiltration on foot in 2s and 3s".  Sometimes this is genuine recce, but mostly it is simply for the sake of probing, and often for no more than raising a flag, having a quick photo taken by a drone, then the job's done, the map is updated, and nobody in the Russian command much cares for the subsequent fate of the probers.

On this last point, honest Russian milboggers are incensed by the endemic Russian practice of over-claiming territorial gains, in what they call "beautiful reports" from lower echelons to higher command and even to Putin himself.  They observe that "victories on credit" frequently result in carnage for the troops on the ground: they are either ordered to "make the maps true" by hurriedly and suicidally advancing into the falsely-claimed territory, and/or having resources taken away because, their having already "gained their objective", they no longer need them.  They also observe that promotions and medals are frequently awarded on the basis of "beautiful reports" alone.



Friday, 2 January 2026

2026 Predictions!

OK, so for 2026 we'll keep it easy ...


1.  FIFA World Cup:  winning team;  golden boots winner(s);  will Wales / N.Ireland / Rep. Ireland qualify? 

2.  Seeing as the man disappointed us last year: date of  Starmer's first Cabinet reshuffle, per last year's definition**, with BPs for names etc

3.  Name of UK Prime Minister on 24.12.26

4.  Results of US Mid-terms 2026, both Houses

5.  Prices of Brent oil in USD/Bbl; gold & silver in GBP/oz on 24.12.26

6.  Joker: anything you have a canny idea is going to happen on the world stage in 2026, that can be expressed in a single sentence of ordinary length.

We'll skip Ukraine this time: strong likelihood of being too complicated to adjudicate.

Have at it below !

ND

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** "Cabinet reshuffle" = two or more changes to the Cabinet roster, unforced by resignation or death.  Splitting of an existing Cabinet post into two or more new positions doesn't count per se - only if accompanied by reshuffle as defined above.  By this definition there hasn't been one yet.

Wednesday, 31 December 2025

2025 Predictions Compo: results!

This one was probably inviting too many qualitative answers for easy adjudication, but here goes.  First, the factual aspects:

1. Name of first sitting MP defecting to Reform   AnsDanny Kruger

2. Date of Starmer's first Cabinet reshuffle, as defined. One bonus point for each correctly-named departure or clear-cut demotion. Two bonus points for any complete change precisely identified (named outgoer and named replacement) 

Ansthere hasn't been one according to the definition, which excluded shuffles forced by resignation.  There was one of that type on 5 Sept (Angela Rayner).  It's arguable, surely, that the lack of a reshuffle is yet another signifier of Starmer's political weakness.

 3. Anything you care to predict about the German Fed elections    Ans:  the vanilla results may be found here.

 4. Composition of German government coalition by year-end   Ans: CDU/CSU and SPD

 5. Dollar / rouble exchange rate on Christmas Eve    Ans 78 - 79 range

 6. FTSE100 on Christmas Eve   Ans 9,890

Results:

1.  Nobody got this one.  (Wonder if any Tory MPs guessed?)

2.  Nobody technically on the money here either.  Several of us mentioned Miliband and it is rumoured he was indeed for the chop, but dug in furiously - and here he still is.  Mr Cowshed saw Rayner as perilously positioned, but not the cause of her exit.  He also saw Lammy as highly vulnerable - an excellent call.  SubOptimal got the timing right.

3 & 4.   Mr Cowshed correctly had AfD second, and Caesar H had the first three in the correct ranking.  CH and Sobers both called the coalition correctly.

5.  Sobers a comfortable winner here with 87 (though on incorrect reasoning, viz a Trump-enforced peace deal): everyone else had it higher & most had it >100.  The exact state of the Russian economy is a highly vexed issue, of course, with good data hard to obtain (FX, at least, is transparent).  Nabiullina is under colossal pressure from Putin to reduce the interest rate to 10%, which she has resisted thus far: it's at 16%, having blipped above 20%.  If she succumbs, and/or quits or is fired, let's revisit that FX rate again ...

6.  Nobody saw the FTSE rising!  Nul points.

From the above, there's a 3-way tie: with two ranking mentions each, it's Anomalous Cowshed, Caesar Hēméra and Sobers !  Well done all.

*   *   *   *   *

There was also a bonus wildcard essay question : at headline level, what will be the state of play in Ukraine at year-end?  We'll return to that one in a few days: but next up - the 2026 compo ...

HYN!

ND

Saturday, 27 December 2025

Blogstats in a year of intense LLM "training"

Last year I noted the Top Six locations for C@W hits, as follows (in descending order):

Hong Kong / China / USA / Singapore / UK / Norway

2025 has been a bizarre year for blogstats.  Much as I'd like to think the upsurge represents long overdue global recognition for this blog, many other blogs have found the same and the widely accepted explanation is that the latest generation of LLMs, ever hungry for new "training" material, have been voraciously "reading" new bodies of text.  Obviously, the nearly two decades of flawless prose and compelling reasoning to be found on C@W make us a highly suitable educational experience for these eager students.

Anyhow, the "readership" has increased six-fold over 2024, with a mighty spike in June.  Someone in the LLM industry could doubtless explain this in detail.  Interestingly, while the spike has long since receded into the rear view mirror, it has left a pronounced tail in its wake**.  Presumably, the said LLMs keep coming back periodically to check on our latest gems: and I wonder if also their initial burst of reading resulted in a wider dissemination of C@W as a cited source, which ordinary ("human") www-browsers now access more than previously.

Anyhow, here is the Top 10 for 2025. 

  1. Brazil - first by a good distance
  2. Singapore
  3. USA
  4. Vietnam
  5. China
  6. India
  7. UK
  8. Japan
  9. Bangladesh
  10. Norway

Questions:

  • Does this mean that electricity is cheaper in Brazil?  Or is it the cost of bandwidth?  I haven't heard of a rash of data centres being built there.
  • To what body of hitherto untapped sources in the digitised world will the LLMs go for their next training binge?  What's left that is broadly literate, extensive, ignored thus far - and free?  The complete speeches of Stalin, Mao and Castro?  Might it be something of unspeakably awful content, such that LLMs will soon be effing and blinding like a docker and sharing pictures of nudified politicians ..? 
  • May we hope that the wholesome diet of C@W wit, wisdom and literary excellence will raise the whole tone of AI output?  (*ahem*)

ND

PS: start thinking about your 2026 predictions ...

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** A company of my acquaintance that publishes a notable blog (as a promotional exercise) has suffered the opposite effect.  Its content having been extensively devoured in the same way, it now gets fewer hits, because AI searches give answers based on the LLM's reading and summarising of that blog.  These days, such searches do at least give links to the original source; but most lazy bastards go no further than the AI summary.  Which, to be fair, characterises much of my own use of AI - given the excellence of the summaries!  (Which is not necessarily a crass, circular assessment: when full reasoning & explanation are incorporated, you can pretty much judge that nothing salient has been omitted or "misunderstood".  And it's self-regulating, too: if the search is for an important purpose, obviously you dig deeper.)      

Some established business models are of course being actively trashed by the phenomenon - not to mention the upcoming fate of many professional, semi-professional and clerical-type jobs ... 

Wednesday, 24 December 2025

When the King invests in the bubble

Not only do human beings have a marked propensity to believe in perpetual motion machines, nuclear fusion, price forecasts and sure-fire betting scams wheezes, they love investing in a good bubble.  When a bubble really gets going - the classic case study being the South Sea variant - almost everyone with any spare cash piles in, accompanied by eejits who've even borrowed to do the same.  And by 'everyone', we mean (in the South Sea case) the King, the Court and, for good measure, Isaac Newton.  Yep, the suckers' propensity has little to do with brainpower or status.

So now we learn that a Trump family enterprise is getting into nuclear fusion, with the AI bubble in mind and the correspondingly vast putatively future demand for electricity.  Has the Orange One finally taken leave of his senses?   Well, note that the story says "the move would 'create one of the world's first publicly traded fusion companies'" which speaks more to making a killing on the share price rather than actually producing anything tangible like, errr, electricity.  So maybe it's quite canny.  What's more, who'd be surprised to learn that the Trump "50% share" is in the form of carried equity?  I'm just guessing here: but after all, his big contribution is surely to act as the pedlar of the snake oil** to his millions-strong legion of sucker-followers for whom he can do no wrong.

Needless to say, the announcement goes on to claim: "the combined company planned to begin constructing the 'world's first utility-scale fusion power plant' next year, with further plants to follow".  Well of course it does: what else would they say?  "Starting construction", as any dodgy building firm will tell you, doesn't need to mean anything more than clearing a site.

Publicly traded, hmmm ... does this mean we'll be able to short the Hell out of this thing?   

Merry Christmas to all !

ND

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** The so-called Swansea Bay Tidal Lagoon, a dreadful scam that ran 2012-2018 before HMG finally put it out of its misery, provides a sobering lesson on such matters.  The promoter, one M. Shorrock, was evidently very good at getting people to part with their money.  Some of his investors were high-rollers (who definitely ought to have known better, shame on them) but he also persuaded hundreds of small investors to take a punt, frequently on the heartwarming pitch that it would provide lots of jobs and cheap electricity for the benighted town of Swansea.  In this way he raised, and spent, somewhere between £37m-£50m before the scheme went bankrupt.  You won't be surprised to learn that many of these millions went to others of M.Shorrock's companies in the form management fees and loan interest paid at 20%.  He has a very nice house in Gloucester.

Oh, and for his own shares in the enterprise (he held approx 23%), how much did Shorrock himself pay?  Answer:  £70.  Not £70,000.  £70 (seventy).  PS, had the scheme ever reached financial close (which, had HMG given it a 'green' subsidy, it probably would have - the banks were lined up), Shorrock would have been paid £14m.

It is not known whether he currently acts as financial adviser to D.Trump.  Possibly not, since he was last sighted selling solar panels in, errr, Vietnam.

Thursday, 18 December 2025

Miliband & the perpetual belief in perpetual motion

There's something very deep in human psychology that encourages people to believe in magic swords, universal elixirs, price forecasts, perpetual motion machines etc etc.  It's out there - and it just needs that little bit more human ingenuity to bring it to reality.

Ed Miliband is (we are told) a human, and clearly suffers from this syndrome.  Here are some of the things he believes in:

  • a "net zero electricity grid" by 2030
  • nuclear fusion as a practical source of power
  • "negative CO2 emissions" from burning trees for power and burying the CO2
  • hydrogen as a wonder-fuel of very wide practical application
  • himself as a dominant force in a post-Starmer UK government
A man can dream: but he's spending our money on the first four of these (and indirectly, one might say, on the fifth).  In a harder-headed world, they would disqualify him from the fifth.  

Sadly, I don't think they do.    

ND