Sunday Business Review - 24/3/07

A linkfest to the 10 most interesting Sunday Business stories in UK papers:

BP to stay in Russian investments - John Browne thinks a chat with Putin is enough. I am not sure Browne's successor will be pleased with such a high risk strategy.

UK business tries to get in on Nuclear Act - A long way to go to match their state-owned EU competition though.

A new world of Open Skies - I was as wrong as always, still amazed that this was signed!

Sub-Prime mortgage fallout out bites UK - still think House prices are going to keep going up?

A good Budget for poor people - from the Guardian Media Group ( now part owned by a PE house!)

Budget a miss - from the Torygraph.

Media Giants start to fight Google - the Times has a positive view of NewsCorp's strategy, as you would expect.

Satellite's still a dog investment - With such high capital requirements, they won't be relocating to the UK anyway after Broon's budget....

The Indy still goes on about green business - An interesting read as it shows why the lack of market forces will stop any major changes to our energy supply. Yet their solution is to regulate, not to marketise?

Another interest rate rise due? - first of several I think , all the models have oil falling in price and so weakening inflationary forces. But if this does not happen, then rises are guaranteed.

Challenge to DC

So at the end of the week it is time to take a step back and consider the future.

Broon has not done so well out of his budget that it is going to secure his premiership. I wonder what the next set of polls will reveal as to his popularity.

However a much worse week for the Tories. Out thought on the budget and shown one more that Labour are masters at stealing their policies.

One thing sticks out to me though. George Osborne has had his day as shadow chancellor. To be fair Broon is a formidable opponent with unprecedented experience; but Osborne has had no radical answers to offer when the country is crying out for it.

I would like to see William Hague appointed as shadow chancellor when the re-shuffle takes place. The reason this is a test for Cameron though is that it will be hard for him to dislodge one of his inner coterie. He needs though to think through the best team to carry the Tories forward in what could still be, even only remotely, an election year.

Tough choices to make, but I don;t think it has worked for Blair in terms of delivery surrounding himself only with his favourites; it gives a government too much inertia.

Budget thoughts...

It's late, been working all day since sunrise and more tomorrow so only a few snippets. I see Dale has a good view on the budget and plenty of stuff. More on Doughty Street too which I have on at the moment. Chris Dillow makes some good points, as ever does Wat Tyler.

So my few musings...

1 - In the small part of the speech that I heard today Brown said that this budget was broadly fiscally neutral. So in English that means taxes have gone up a bit overall.

2 - So clearly, all this nonsense about tax cuts is just that. It is noticeable too that some of the proposed 'cuts' or changes are for 2009 or even 2010. Beyond the life of this parliament and hopefully his government. This really is disingenuous politics of the first order.

3 - I am worried though if the media let Broon get away with this sort of lying rubbish (and robbing the poor too!) then the Tories are in for a tough time. Serves them right for being so weak-kneed on tax cuts themselves.

4 - The spending taps to the NHS and Education are still on. This worries me as it is not investment. All the money goes on salaries, pensions and perhaps some failed IT projects. This is money thrown away, all the while the public debt of the country is rising and not being paid off. A sensible government would have a huge surplus now to help come with the coming downturn.

5 - Finally, it is clear to most economists, the bond markets and equity buyers that the world economy, led by the US is going to slow. But not the UK according to magic Gordon?

Shot across the bows of Broon

All over the financial pages the last 2 days has been the proposed merger between Barclay's and ABN Amro.



The latest news suggest that Barclay's is making some serious 'concessions' to get the deal done. However, as usual the Beeb and financial press are missing the obvious. Of course Barclay's may want to move its HQ to Amsterdam to secure the deal. However, you may note that it will also escape the new Broon tax regime and put some distance between itself and the FSA.

Perhaps our often crowed about dominance of the European financial markets is a little weaker than we think. Only recently HSBC threatened to move back to Hong Kong because of high taxes too.

Budget preview

Well I know the budget is only on Wednesday, but I thought it may be a discussion worth having to see what are the treats that Gordon Brown has in store for us tax payers.

At times such as this we need to turn to tax accountants and economists, who have so much skin in the game for a decent look at the prospects for the budget given current economic conditions.

I start with the E&Y view, two horrid ideas here. One is actually extending the reach of Inheritance tax (rather counter to the views of Nick Drew). This is as always a nice socialist and regressive tax.

The second key idea is a new 'planning gain' tax. This is a tax on property where the planing permission has been changed. As such it is a tax on future development. This will utterly stymie the small property developers in favour of large ones. it is also an extra tax as large developers already sign bribes in the form of section 106 (e.g. you can build houses but must pay for a bypass too etc.)

KPMG's view on the state of the economy is as follows:

"There will be questions about the next cycle however. Since the early 2000s, public spending has risen at a much faster rate than the economy as a whole. But without higher taxes, this leeway has been used up, particularly now that public debt has risen to within a few percentage points of its 40 percent of GDP ceiling.

Consequently total public spending growth is slated to slow sharply over the next four years, to below the rate of growth of the economy. Education is expected to be a priority although we will probably have to wait for the Comprehensive Spending Review in the summer for full details of the allocations to health, alleviation of child poverty, etc.

Even this projected squeeze on spending still leaves the public finances looking tight and although there is no immediate need to raise taxes, equally there is no scope to cut them."

PWC have a great predictions website, two of their highlights are the possibility of further green taxes on cars and new taxes for carbon consumption. The Chancellor knows a helpful bandwagon when he sees on.

Finally, Deloitte's Roger Bootle is quite scathing about the state of the economy. he is brave enough to state that the real GDP deficit is more like 90% rather than the 37% the Chancellor fictitiously maintains and also notes taxes need to rise by £10 billion.

So what do you think? My prediction is for more stealth taxes as the Chancellor needs a war chest. He can't go and become PM without any money for baubles to offer. So he will store them up now and try to hide behind all the other mess that Blair and crew are creating.

Mostly, we will be poorer by Friday.

Sunday Business Round Up 18/3/07

The ten best stories rounded up from the Sunday Business Sections:

Barclays/ABN in merger talks - now this would be a mega-deal, nearly big enough to sate Bob Diamond's mega-ego.

Brown to offer benign budget - A nice thought and a considered piece, but I doubt it...

Open skies agreement to be stymied - mutatis mutendes.

Irwin Stelzer hates Greens - Well he should tell his friend Mr Broon in stronger terms then.

Brown to end workers rights - eh? Don't believe everything you read.

Pensions scandal shames Brown - even The Observer can see this for the disgrace that it is.

Sainsbury's move to towards sale to Private Equity inches on - It is not a business round up without a hat-tip to Private Equity.

Online fraud grows - more care needed with your own finances?

The Pru still does nothing radical- just like last week.

Nuclear decommissioning tender - Interesting that all this work has to be done by foreign firms, some even state owned!

Happy reading.

A sane view on Global Warming

I saw this morning on the BBC, of all news outlets, a package describing some recent statements by UK based scientists. At last some people who can make sense of the furore of the last couple of weeks.

See here for the BBC report, but I have some of the key quotes below:

"I've no doubt that global warming is occurring, but we don't want to undermine that case by crying wolf." said Professor Collier of the Royal Meteorological Society

This view is shared by Professor Hardaker, the society's chief executive.

"Organisations have been guilty of overplaying the message," he says.

"There's no evidence to show we're all due for very short-term devastating impacts as a result of global warming; so I think these statements can be dangerous where you mix in the science with unscientific assumptions."

Professor Hardaker also believes that overblown statements play into the hands of those who say that scientists are wrong on climate change - that global warming is a myth.

"I think we do have to be careful as scientists not to overstate the case because it does damage the credibility of the many other things that we have greater certainty about," he said.

"We have to stick to what the science is telling us; and I don't think making that sound more sensational, or more sexy, because it gets us more newspaper columns, is the right thing for us to be doing.

"We have to let the science argument win out."

Loving American lawyers

I know this is a little late with a story, but it did make me laugh yesterday.

Viacom, an American media firm, has decided that it will sue Google and YouTube for £1 billion dollars.

Queue thoughts of Dr. Evil.

The bit that make me laugh is how they came to such a large and exact sum. In my mind I can see the lawyers sitting around and thinking of a stupidly bit number, one spits it out, another doubles it, another adds some zeroes and hey presto, $1 billion. Then they all sit back and dream about the fees....

Time called on the US Credit binge; UK to follow in 2007?

The FTSE fell again today, and is now down to 6000.7 and may well go below 6000 tomorrow which is a 10% drop in a couple of weeks.

What has caused this?

Well in the US, there is a fairly rapid bursting of a residential housing asset bubble. New builds are being cancelled and prices of property are down on average 10%. This has caused many of the lenders of sub-prime mortgages (i.e. high risk lending) to get into serious difficulty as people begin to default on their loans. They have done this as interest rates have gone up from 1% to 5% in the past few years. This is the real legacy of Alan Greenspan whose lustre may well fade now the chickens are coming home to roost.

This is a real problem because for the last few years US citizens have been financing credit card bills by withdrawing profits from the equity in their houses. So any large problems with the housing market will reduce consumer spending and bring on a mild recession at the very least.

As we all know, what happens in the US is often followed in the UK. Although we have not gone to the same excesses as in the US, we have some of the same symptoms. Rapidly rising house prices (although we have supply issues unlike the US, giving our prices better underlying reason to rise), huge credit card lending (over £1 trillion now) and rising interest rates. We have a high money supply though which means inflation is more of an issue here than in the US. Perhaps we will be saved the worst by the huge wave of immigration that is keeping wages low and house prices high?

We are likely here in the UK to have a housing dip and credit squeeze. This will slow down the economy more quickly than the treasury is predicting and cause finance issues for our high spending government. On the plus side, perhaps interest rates will not need to go beyond 6%.

We live in interesting economic times though; shame , I preferred the mill pond.

Thoughts on Enviroment Policies

There has been so much written and said about the environment in the last few weeks that I barely know where to start. I think first it is best to set out where I sit. The science to me is firmly on the side of man made global warming. I would love to believe the the great climate change swindle, but many of the arguments made in that have been disproved time and again (see realclimate.org for a fully scientific rebuttal). Perhaps the effects will not be as extreme as the likes of George Monbiot would like us to believe, but nonetheless we can all see the climate changing around us rapidly.So we must do something...

But tax is not the answer. Typically our ill-led and unambitious government (and opposition) can only think in one dimension. Tax.

This is not the solution at all, we need a far more market and globally based approach.
We need to finance and support new technologies and research (UK government research budgets have been falling in real terms for years) to find alternative fuels.
We need binding international agreements so that there is no incentive for businesses to practice 'carbon-avoidance.'
We need to follow the better, already tested, policy ideas such as those of Woking Borough Council, which has reduced its energy spend by 90%.

I know the wrong policies though, regressive and unilateral taxes on transport and consumers. These affect the poor the most and leave the rich to go about their chosen lifestyles. I am more or less ashamed of the Conservative policies announced this week, at least the Labour policies are less regressive.

Really if there is one thing emerging from the 'debates' this week, it is that there is already too much hot air in the UK; and this is definitely sharply on the rise.

Cash for Honours

My 2 pence on the likely outcomes from here on in:

1 - Charges will be brought against key Blair aides. More likely for perverting the course of justice than actually selling honours.

2- Aides, Levy, Blair all look rather bad and try to spin their way out of it. Watch some flack hit the Tories and other parties too. Blair does not have too many days left anyway (see clock in my side panel).

3- Brown 'assumes' power from Blair in May. Declares a fresh start with full state funding for political parties and a backing for a fully elected House of Lords.

4- Somehow, maybe thanks to media leaks, the trial never happens and all is forgotten by the end of the year.

Except of course, that we would no longer live in even a representative democracy. With state funded parties, why would the politicians' need to listen to voters?

Sunday Business Round Up 10/3/07

Shorter round up this week...some of the stories which grabbed me:

Morrison's logo to go - it was not very modern anyway. I like Morrsion's as it happens, their own brands are a mark above the competition as they own more of their suppliers.

The IoD urges tax cuts to Gordon Brown - tax cuts? talk about whistling into the wind...

Boots next for for KKR Private Equity - a deal that makes more sense as Boots has plenty of assets for the PE boys to leverage and has been under performing for years.

Agri-Business benefits from EU subsidies - yes of course you may say, but this was in The Observer!

London full of Billionaires - Perhaps Blighty is not so bad after all...

The future of the UK; housing crash? - we do tend to follow the US economy occasionally.

Music companies realise they can profit in the download world - not exactly quick on the uptake though.

Banks fight back on customer overdraft claims - between the banks and consumers the war will go on forever.

The Pru to nothing again - they may take some money back from their funds this time, but he 3rd strategic review in 3 years has the same old conclusion - do nothing.

SkyNet 5; The terminator

yes it is true, we named our new military satellite system after the one in the Terminator series.

If this is not macho enough for you, then weep at its telecoms power and awe. Well, OK not weep, but perhaps be impressed.

I am glad our armed forces will finally be able to use the modern communications systems that us mere office workers take for granted.

However, as ever the cost is astro-nomical; fitting given the subject here.

The PFI deal that it was bought under is a typically hideous beastie. 18 years of future costs and no fixed payments. Extra's added (to the tune of a few hundred million) in 2005 for a little up specking.

Finally, just to sweeten the deal the MoD threw in a few other contracts for radio's and systems.
All this is just yet another condemnation of the MoD's procurement department, surely one of the sectors in Whitehall needing the most urgent overhaul.

Investigation into Private Equity?

According to the BBC yes, but I notice the terms and conditions of the inquiry mean that there will be no actual result. This is a classic NuLab response to any issue of the day, just like John Reid earlier in the week; something must be seen to be done.

This is more important than anything actually being done. Which of course they can't do, as they don't have any answers.

Top Tory gone in race row

Mercer is sacked by Cameron; what was he thinking? Sad though that a person's job and career can go just on a rash decision, eh Alex?

IT Poor Results; The shape of things to come

I posted below about the revolution that is hitting our television industry. Today ITV have announced another poor set of results. ITV are still the largest advertising channel in the UK, but not for long. Google will overtake them in a year or so and as the multi-channel world of Digital television kicks in they will fall even further back.

The future will be subscription and new forms of payment, like ITVPlay and the other gameshows where you pay through calling in with little hope of winning a prize. It will be a very different world and I can't see how the likes of the BBC and ITV can remain in their current format's over the next 5 years.

Digital Telly; a nice denoument for the BBC

The end of the analogue signal is approaching. In the autumn of this year, the first switch off will occur.

This heralds a major change in the way we all get and view our television in future. The Government pursued this idea because it would free up the radio spectrum to be sold again and would leave Britain with an advanced DTT system. So all round a good idea, even if there are hitches in the shape of refusniks' and a lot of analogue TV's to be disposed of.

Hat Tip for Image; InformITV.com

Longer term however, there is a huge shift in the business model coming, to the detriment of the current advertising based model. With a multi-channel TV audience for all channels, the share of the larger channels will fall. So ITV, BBC and Channel 4 will all suffer. This means their advertising revenue will fall off. To help bolster this they will need more popular programmes; but this does not square with their current public service broadcasting obligations.

The Government is of a already retreating on this issue vis-a-vis C4 and ITV by reducing their costs. But for the BBC it is a different game; how can it justify its position as its market share falls?

I don't think it can, but I like the latest idea from John Whittingdale that in future all companies could bid for government funded public service broadcasting; thus removing the need for a BBC monopoly and licence fee.

A market for TV PSB is a much better idea than the current system; we still get the content and have to pay, but not to support the whole administrative monolith that is the BBC.

Sunday Business Round Up 4/3/07

A much better week this week than last, including the sight of Slicker eating his hat...

Firstly, an entertaining story in the Sunday Telegraph about the future of soft drinks. With all the flavours done, it seems gimmicks will be the new 'new.' Still sounds like fun. Better than the most dull story covered by most but with the Observer link here, about the SKY/Virgin TV boresville.

The main story of the week, the huge market fall (over 10% globally) is surprisingly covered only briefly, although best stories are in here and here. The Mail has a take on how to profit as a small investor in these times; no they don't mention buying a house!

The Sunday Telegraph also covers the credit card story, which continues to bubble away (yes, I know I 'owe' a post on this). This time is is Barclays looking to get out of its credit mess and further bad news for HSBC which is really in the mire in the US with bad mortgage loans (look out for the Woolwich in the UK to suffer the same fate as the year progresses?). The Times reports this story as HSBC writing off $11 billion in loans- that is more than the cost of the business they bought! The Observer has a slightly different take here, as you would expect.

Finally there are a few stories following up on last week's Private Equity binge - here in the Telegraph, a PE bid in The Times,

I always like to include at least one story on our increasing tax burden and its threat to our economic well being - here is one in The Times. Although the Observer has the opposite on how our film industries subsidies are under threat (if only!). The Indy has a nice angle on blaming the tax accountants for the world's woes; I have a tinge of sympathy with the argument here, but not a lot

Finally, the open skies talks I dissed last week have apparently made progress...or maybe not if BA has its way. I remain knife and fork at the ready.

Not big and not clever

So the news for the last day or two has had this story bubbling under the surface. Some Tourists have been kidnapped on the Ethiopia and Eritrean border.

Now the foreign office is mobilising to try and track them down and I guess negotiate for their release.


It is sad that this has happened to fellow citizens, but really, holidaying in a war zone? Do you think they managed to get any holiday insurance?

Is Disneyland or Magaluf really that bad an option in comparison?

Dead Cat Bounce

My last post reported the fall in the stock markets around the world that heralded the beginning of the end of the Bull market. Economic fundamentals are just too unbalanced for things to continue as they were.

Yet today, the markets are up a little, after 2 days of falls. Don't be fooled though as hedge funds and others need markets to move up and down to make their margins, one way bets are hard for them to manage.

So today sees some profit taking, but I still believe the bubble is burst. Let's hope it is a nice gentle ride down rather than a collapse...

Is The End Nigh?

Stock Markets around the world suffered huge falls yesterday. All triggered by a near 10% fall in the Shanghai Stock Market.

The falls were so rapid that the traders were unable to complete deals yesterday, meaning that the trades will have to be done today and so the markets will suffer equally sharp falls today.

Will this trigger a downturn? I think it might, as all the ingredients are there for a slowdown in the world economy. Even the venerable Alan Greenspan said only on Monday that the US was in for a recession. When the US has a recession, so does most of the world.

The imbalance of the carry trade (this is the rest of the world borrowing from Japan at 0.5% interest rates) has helped to boost markets, but the position has to be 'unwound' in the long term as it boosts excessive risk taking. In the US and UK the asset bubble caused by the cheap money, in houses, equities, minerals and even money (in the form of consumer credit lending) in fact in almost everything, has helped maintain a frothy economy despite many of the fundamentals being wrong. For example, the high UK tax burden should have held our economy back recently, the carry trade explains why not, along with cheap goods for China that it finances which hold down our inflation.

If the Chinese Government does intervene more in its burgeoning economy then this trend will last. In some ways to get the pain done now in a short slowdown is better than letting it carry on for another year.

However, if you have investments in ISA's and other liquid assets, think about doing something. When the markets collapse if you sit still you lose the most. Think about switching to cash or defensive stocks if you can.

Government spin Murdoch

The Government have today taken up the powers of the 2002 Enterprise act to order an investigation into BSkyB's purchase of a 17.6% stake in ITV (here).

This is despite the fact that the OFT already have an investigation going on into the purchase. So now taxpayer's are paying for 2 separate investigations into the ownership of BSkyB.

No doubt Alistair Darling is hoping to make a Government 'stand' against Rupert Murdoch; just a few months before Gordon Brown assumes the Premiership and Darling himself becomes Chancellor. This stand against evil Rupert will no doubt go down well with the Labour Troops.

However, under the recent Communications act the Government cravenly allowed companies to buy into terrestrial channels. This was to allow Murdoch to buy into Channel 5 - indeed it was christened the Murdoch Clause. Now that Murdoch Junior has abused this the Government are able to feign injury.

Not riled enough is my bet for anything to happen. Everything BSKYB have done is legal and Virgin Media are just bitter. So this is all about grandstanding and points scoring; but don't worry, it is only taxpayers who have to foot the bill.

Sunday Business News Round-Up

On Ellee's advice, I present below some key stories from the UK Sunday broadsheets:

Private Equity as ever features strongly this week. The Sunday Times can't seem to make up its mind. Commenter John Warples thinks its PR is bad, but that it is a force for good; meanwhile Debenham's , now floated with its PE team in charge, continues to abuse the market. The Observer continues the theme with a story on PE executive pay; what a surprise for them to focus on this? The Sunday Telegraph is on on the act too by reporting , with others, on the proposed TXU take-over; the largest yet by PE houses.

The Times too carries the slowest and dullest story ever on 'open-skies' talks. These have been going 20 years without success. Other standard stories are of the growth of Asia, this week the Telegraph's piece is on the proposed listing in London of a Communist party paper. Also the Independent there is a usual story about how Iraq is all about Western greed for Oil.

However, the generally pro-Labour paper saves its best piece for the key story of the week; Gordon Brown's £10 billion red tape extravaganza which is throttling UK businesses. The Observer shows a classic of this kind with its story on Travel Insurance mis-selling. Even the Left though have been able to see what a total mess of pensions Broon has made, with two stories this week in the Observer; one comment piece and one report on the high court pensions decision of earlier in the week.

Overall not the most exciting weekend of reporting this week. The Private Equity story is building more these days, just in time for the bust probably. There is little news on the real stories about inflation, interest rates, personal credit collapse and the over-heated property market. I await next weeks news...

A different take on Road Pricing; UK Transport

Given Tony Blair's email response to the road pricing petition on the No.10 website there has been much reflection on the issue of transport in the UK.

No doubt, there are many reasons to be against road pricing and it does not surprise me that the feeling against it is so strong. 85% of UK passenger Journeys' are taken by car; so any tax raid on this element of our life will no doubt be resisted.

However, the Government is in a bind. The Eddington report, which I discussed last year ,has left a number of dilemma's. Air is the best solution to inter-regional travel and is the least expensive but has 'environmental' effects. Rail has had £12 billion a year invested since Hatfield, but capacity increase has been minimal. The roads meanwhile make do with £660 million invested in the Highways Agency, whose existence is now under review by Shriti Vadera at the Treasury.

Even if the massive investment is rail was to double capacity (which is very unrealistic) then this would only have a 3% effect on travel outcomes in the UK. Whereas a smaller investment in road capacity and improvements would have a vastly greater impact on the 85% of all journey's taken.

The case is clear for more road investment is undeniable. Fuel and Motoring taxes generate over 12% of government income, yet total transport spend is 4% (see Treasury Stats).

A future Tory government must grasp this nettle; road pricing or not the roads that are the lungs of our economy must be heavily invested in and the relative waste of resources plunged into Rail must be cut. Failure to do this will increase the transport chaos we face, which is why Labour's policy has been such a failure for the past 10 years; you can't ignore the economic realities and replace them with wishful thinking.

The Future of Blogging

In Egypt a blogging student has been jailed for criticising Islam and their President. He has now to serve 4 years in what I imagine are not very pleasant conditions in Egyptian jails.

More worryingly, Broon is looking for ideas for his 1st hundred days; I hope he does not see this....

Victory for the Pensioners in battle, but a War Lost.

The Government has failed to escape the Courts' after all and is now going to have to pay the legal bills of those pensioners protesting at their harsh treatment at the hands of the Government.

The Government is clearly concerned at the cost to the taxpayer of potentially guaranteeing all failed pension funds.

Perhaps they should have thought of this before the £5 billion a year tax raid that has so undermined the pensions industry.

Also I see a long-term view taken by Labour here; after all, these people are now poor and dependent on the State for their future well-being?

Are they going to vote for any party that suggests reducing the size of the state?

City Bonus's - let them pay for our failure

A first for me, a link to The SUN.

Basically, an aide to the Mayor is jumping on the Hain bandwagon and suggesting a windfall tax on City Bonus's.

This is of course economic nonsense; but then to add insult to injury he suggest this money could be used to fund the Olympics.

So in short, the uncosted and untested project for the Olympics, never put to the vote, should be paid for by City worked who have probably worked 16 hour days for years to earn their cash.

This idea is somewhat underwhelming to me. As a point of record, I am not a recipient of these payments; yet I do see what people to do get them. It ain't pretty and it ain't nice. Only last week a young lawyer got so stressed by it all he jumped to his death in the Tate Modern.

But then spending other people's money is what socialists preach best of all. Time for us to get rid of Ken and his ilk.

Sunday Business Paper Review

As promised a few weeks ago.

This is not a review of the news today, but of the general coverage of 'business' news in the Sunday papers over time.

Firstly, I happen to think that the coverage is overall actually very good. considering the natural secrecy of corporates, particularly private equity and venture capitalists, together with their easy access to expensive lawyers, a lot of information comes out to us. in fact, with the standard so high I am not surprised the Sunday Business did not make it.

Some of it even within a decent enough timescale to help with buying or selling shares in the market. Having said that, the real money is made these days by the in-house desks of investment banks; if you think that staying up with events by reading newspapers business pages is going to keep you informed enough to compete then think again.

Anyway, enough pre-amble, here are my musings:

1st Place: The Sunday Times, this is quite surprising for me. The daily edition of the newspaper is terrible in its business journalism. Clearly, they have a different breed of hack for the Sunday's edition. The weekly take on a big story is often insightful and balanced. The long interview with a CEO, although fawning, at least provides some depth of character. The columnists are pretty good; except for Irwin Stelzer, but I find him quite funny, similar to The Hitch.

2nd Place: The Sunday Telegraph, it was close. The ST is a good read for business, full of depth. Dan Roberts, the editor, lacks punch in his columns though and is too generous his targets. Always a hard call for journalists that but he falls the wrong side of the line and leads the coverage this way. However, the ST has the best business website by far, better than the revamped Times.

3rd Place: The Observer, As with the weekday output at The Guardian the depth and quality is of a high order. You will be surprised no doubt to hear that I don't buy it often, so to read it as part of this review I found insightful. I don't think the business hacks can have much in common with the others journo's at the paper. They are balanced, insightful and pay less attention to to the Unions than you might think. So what is wrong? Ina word the coverage is great, the columnists are really bad. I give you George Monbiot, moonbat king and Larry Elliot, economics editor for Pravda.

As for the other broadsheets; The Indy, has good detail but such a tilt to the left (today's is a great example) that balance goes out of the window.

The tabloids are somewhat easier, as they don't really have any serious business focus. The MOS, does not even have any information online. In the paper itself a couple of derisory pages are followed by concerns with mortgage rates as you would expect!

The Express, News of the World and Sunday Mirror are all equally worthless; but then they have more serious material to cover.

What do you read and what are your views?

Work interrupting with Blogging

So posting will be light. This week I have mainly been reading:

Croydonian - The place where elite commenters such as Verity, Nick Drew and Hatfield Girl make their play....
Newmania - A winding road through Conservatism and Islington
James Higham - As always, nourishing obscurity.
Ellee Seymour - The latest from the world and the blogsphere.
Peter Hitchens - *cough* comedy blog-stylee
Mr Eugenides - Always a fine read for mastication of Government Ministers.

so go surf in awe.....

Valentine's Day Massacre

Bah Humbug. last night Slicker was in a queue 50 long to buy a Valentine's day card in a shop near Charring Cross. My devotion to corporate marketing disgusted myself and I came up with the following equation:



+



=


(This is Don Lewin, CEO of Clinton Cards, looking Smug)

Not very exciting, but a great testament to the power of corporate marketing. Valentines day is a UK tradition, taken to the USA and from there exported around the world. Even countries such as Japan have been infected with the need to buy cards. Although in Japan the women buy chocolates for all their male colleagues at worked. As ever they take a western idea and improve upon it.

However, in Sri Lanka the normally timid Buddhist leaders have spoken out against the 'Commercial Conspiracy' that is Valentines day. Iranian hardline leaders do not favour the day either, but as usual it is very popular in Iran.

From an economic perspective, Generally Awesome has some good tips, albeit too late. If your relationship is in trouble then a pre-Valentine's break-up is the best for financial and emotional security.

Finally, I would tip Hallmark and Clinton Cards, except that I can't and it is too late anyway. Florists have their best day of the year too, so sell shares today as they may well have peaked.

Perhaps look to buy before their next marketing scams such as Mother's Day. Hallmark's turnover is now $4.8 billion; a pretty good commercial success I would say.

Time Wasting

Inspired by DevilsKitchen and Tom Paine I wasted 42 seconds of my life filling this in, very rewarding it was too.

Your Vocabulary Score: A

Congratulations on your multifarious vocabulary! You must be quite an erudite person.

How's Your Vocabulary?

Party Funding: End Game?

So the final discussions of Sir Hayden Philips with the political parties have been leaked here, to the Sunday Times.

My reaction; Non-plussed to say the least.

In a very predictable cosy stitch up the main proposals are for 60p per vote for Westminster elections and 30p per vote for European elections.

The cost of this is said to be £28 million a year. Typically there is an immediate underplay of the hand here as of course a reformed House of Lords will add another 30 million or so votes into the post and increase this figure to more like £40 million.

Donations to parties are set to be capped at £50,000. So What, I say? All this will do is increase soft money and other ways of donating. I like 18 Doughty Street and think it is great, but it is also the first real appearance of soft money campaigning in the UK.

Finally, parties are only eligible for money is they have at least 2MPs, (Elected Lords?), MSP's or Euro MP's. So the main idea seems to be to keep the Status Quo. In fact it promotes the government by giving them more money by right than any other party. Thus those in and around power wish to perpetuate their own system.

All at our expense. I feel the need for a Downing Street petition, but to what effect?

It is a sorry situation all round and I welcome any ideas for how we can protest further.

'The Strongest economy in our country's history' says Tony Blair

OK, so Prime Minister's Questions is not renowned worldwide for the trading of a factually correct information, but this outburst by Blair, in support of Brown, is beyond belief.

Before examining further, it did get worse;

"This chancellor has produced the strongest economy, the lowest interest rates, the lowest unemployment, the highest employment, in our country's history," said Mr Blair.

This requires some understanding of the terms, as well as what has been ignored, to understand the depth of the rubbish being spouted here. It is the equivalent to seeing entire air-fleets of pigs flying in V formation over London.

So from the beginning; the strongest economy. Since 1997, average UK growth has been 2.6%. This is in line with the long-term trend started after the Thatcher economic revolution in 1983. However, at the end of 2005/6 general government debt was £529.1 billion, equivalent to 42.1 per cent of GDP (here). So alot of this growth has been funded by government debt. This is before we add PFI projects into the mix; this would change skew the numbers even further (see Wat Tyler)

Of course we will always have a historically, by numbers, 'the strong economy.' This is due to inflation. But say in 1850, the UK have 50% share of global GDP, today we have 5%. IS our economy the strongest it has ever been?

"The lowest interest rates" well last month the bank of England raised rates to 5.25% and they are heading upwards. So this statement must be a non-sequitor. A few years ago we did briefly have low interest rates and low inflation - but this has all changed radically with both heading upwards quickly now. Real Inflation RPIX is at at least 4.4% currently.

"the lowest unemployment" - so is this true in that unemployment peaked in 1993 at 3 million and has declined ever since. However this effect has bottomed out in the last 2 years and unemployment is now creeping up again. The other part Mr Blair ignores is that those on benefits, including sickness benefits, has shot up. This skews the unemployment figures and shows how much is now hidden.

"the highest employment" - again similar to above, with a growing economy and growing population it would be difficult to see how you could have anything other than this term. he is in effect congratulating Mr. Brown for not overseeing a huge recession. Also of course the 500,000 immigrants who have found jobs in the UK since 2001 help this figure; but what other effects do they have on our society?

No wonder people don't take Blair seriously, as can be seen he just misquotes and fibs openly in Parliament. Time to go with Broon to follow swiftly after. Sadly, I think I may be referring to this post in a year or so's time as the recession sets in....

Desperate times still for the British Army

It seems nothing can stop the troubled times for our armed forces, globalisation is affecting even the army these days and the government is not to rely on Chinese mercenaries.....

UKIP has become TIP

..but are their policies just the left over, slightly rancid, rubbish that no one else wants anymore but can't find a place to borrow?

over to the great DK for a riposte.

Campaign worth backing

I blogged recently on the disaster awaiting is in the form of State Funding for Political Parties.

This coincides with a new Doughty Street 'Attack Ad.' I have mixed views on these ad's so far. The tax one was a good idea and worked quite well until the end, but really I have not seen the commercial of political benefit in them yet....but this changes today.

The new ad, on 'State Funding' is a great leap forward. A worthy campaign too, as the Main Stream Media are too pre-occupied with John Reid's latest insane-idea-for-the-day.

Backed by Philip Oppenheimer money (he also sponsors a good sight, which is remarkably detailed and considered given its not so subtle agenda).

Have a look, have a think, start telling everyone. No more money from taxpayers for the politicians, make them earn their own corn like the rest of us.

Praise indeed for Guido Fawkes

As if by magic, while hunting for links for another post (I'll save that one for another day) I found this:

Dear Dr. Guido,
I thank you very much, also on behalf of our Managing Director Dr. Keitel, for the forwarding of your book on the Hitler bunker. As we could evict, our indications have been only a supplementary help.
Thanks to your work, has been written a book on the Führer bunker able to answer to many demands, up to now outstanding. Of particular aid have been the maps, the photographs and the graphics, compiled by you, that give to the readers a vision of the site and the architecture of the bunker. Moreover, the documentation concerning the relationship established after the end of the war around the bunker has given rise to our interest.
We congratulate you heartily with the hope and firm belief that many readers will think the same and that will be able to appreciate your deep work.Best regards.

Jutta Hobbiebrunken - Director of Communication HOCHTIEF
( HOCHTIEF is the company that built the Berlin Führer bunker, in 1944) November 2002

I could not agree more, Jutta. However, I wonder whether you look identical to the man in the picture?

A Pyrrhic victory in Cash-For Honours

First of all, if I lost you already.

Anyway, as Ellee says, what a week for right-wing blogging. Guido and Iain leading the news agenda of the MSM with the Smith Institute scandal (Guido) and the Tax Advert on by 18 Doughty Street.

Yet the biggest story as been the continuing Cash for Honours scandal (If this is really a scandal, this just has not been looked into before in such detail methinks).

Seeing Blair, shorn of all credibility and pathetically going on Today this morning (transcript here) to announce nothing more than he as still living in 10 Downing Street, had me laughing and full of glee.

Yet on reflection I am worried. At the back of my mind I wonder what Sir Hayden Phillips is thinking about all this. His weak and ill-considered report has been under attack by all the political parties.

Unsurprisingly, they all want more of our money to pay for their spinning and campaigning. The fall-out from Cash for Honours is likely to be they get their wish granted.

This is most distressing; we rid ourselves of Blair, Broon is hopefully hobbled and yet it will still cost us money. Tax-payer funding will also ruin our political system, ensuring legions more of unworldly, inexperienced political apparatchiks become our leaders.

How long for Blair?

Cameron demanded him to leave yesterday, the papers were all full of it today, even the police seem to be chipping in with handy leaks.

So how long will Blair stay? I think my clock saying May 5th will still be proved correct. The man wants a 'legacy' and in his desperation will keep firmly in Downing Street.

He still has a few institutions of our country to ruin, the latest 'renewal' to be focused on The House of Lords.

Yet still I think he is a better option than Mad Gordon; that tax-raising maniac could be the end of us.

I can only therefore conclude with;

Tony Stay! Tony Stay!

ID Fraud TV

There was a programme on BBC One tonight on ID Fraud.

All the usual scare stories and real stories about how easy it is to lose your ID. Try as they might I thought this weakened the case even more, were that possible, for ID cards. The fraudsters are too good.

On the other hand, who will steal my ID? You could have my mortgage, credit cards, overdraft. Please take these things away, your theft will make me much happier!

Post Office update

Having spoken to a few Post masters I have discovered that there is no official documentation on the Post Office closure after the May Elections. However the consultation process has been set to end in March with a central government review to take place after this. An announcement then to be made in early May?

Just Fancy That.

The other news from Post World is that Labour M.P.'s are being briefed on the financially strong offices that will remain open. They can then sponsor local campaigns to save these particular establishments and hey presto, they will be successful.

Welcome to a perfect world; new Labour Britain 2007.

A thought for Sunday

Mr Reid, our esteemed leader in the Home Office has been faced with some serious problems this week.

Notsaussure, has the best in-depth pieces that I have seen this week.

However, with prison places hard to come by, paedo's on the streets and a feeling of general anarchy descending from the media to the whole populace I can see only two clear options for 'JR':

1 - Bring back hanging, this is much cheaper than long-term jail costs and is also a proven vote-winner with those all important voters, Rupert Murdoch, Rebekah Wade and Paul Dacre.

2 - Impose martial law until the crisis is over. If a resident of Number 11 Downing Street finds his passport cancelled while abroad or finds himself sitting rather too close to the door of a Hercules in the next couple of months, then it may be lost in the maelstrom of the news agenda.

Two easy solutions JR, which one for the media grid this week?

Darling Behaviour

Many stories in politics and business this week, but all are covered better elsewhere (see my many links for better coverage than the MSM).

I have 3 themes to which have often returned to over the past 6 months. The pension crisis, the inflation fallacy of the government and its poor economic management and the risk to our economy of unregulated private equity.

There is another to add, linked to the pensions crisis. This is the closure of 2500 post offices by the government.

This is a theme I will build on from now until May, it is bound up with many other issues and so there is much depth to the story.

However, the main accusation I make is one of pure political cynicism on the part of the government. They know this is a hot potato and very controversial so when have they decided to announce these closures? After an extended consultation...which happens to be the day after the Local Elections on May 3.

After the heat maps scandal of last year, we should expect no less. What a an indictment of the government's confidence in itself that it has to behave in this way.

Oh, Darling how could you!

Referral to a better place

Jeremy Jacobs is taking action in response to tragedy and sorrow. If more of us had this sort of courage and commitment the world would be a better place:

I urge you to see this and take part in your own way.

Watch this!

Far be it from me to encourage watching the goggle box. However, tonight at 9m Jeff Randall looks into the UK pension scandal on ITV1.

Jeff is no friend of the government and I look forward to him telling it how it is.

If you watch put your thoughts in the comments for a quick debate....

Which Business section should you read?

Many people rarely pick up the business sections of the Daily or Sunday newspapers unless it is to look at personal work related issues. Nothing wrong with this but I also know that most of us choose a newspaper and then stick with it. Below in short I give my opinion on the business sections of some of the Daily's as a guide for you.

If anyone is interested I can do the Sunday's at a later time, need time to peruse a few more though. It has taken a couple of weeks to prepare for this post.

Feedback on my views appreciated as ever.

Daily's:

The Times; Actually quite weak, there business news rarely sets the agenda and it has to be said that the Murdoch agenda is never far from the news. Very much of the focus is on corporate news. Good for jobs though, still leads the others.

Telegraph: Easily the best of the daily's a whole section devoted to business news and led by editor-at-large Geoff Randall it has the ability to cover, corporate, national economic global issues.

Guardian: This is a pleasantly surprising business read given the political slant of the paper. Often the focus is on people in business, but this can add good depth to stories and overall I would place the business section just behind the Telegraph. Good for media as you would expect. Best for Media and Public sector jobs.

Independent: Not bad, but a very wide range of topics covered as you would expect. No real star's amongst its leader writers and often too little depth to the stories. heavily skewed towards personal finance.

Financial Times: You would expect this to come out highly, but I just can't rate it. Of course the depth is there/ Where though is the accessibility to its audience? Also has a terrible habit of printing press releases from corporate and using that to fill space. Even the famous Lex column has become a disappointment. Rather like reading the economist, you know what it will say before even reading the article. Poor for jobs outside of high finance too.


I can't begin to go through the tabloids, suffice to say they all play to their political agenda and I can't recall seeing any breaking news in any of them, except the The Daily Mail which broke the Pearson rumors first recently. Please ignore share-tipping advice and anything else you see here; You will have as much luck looking at the horoscopes.

One final mention though for free sheet The Metro in London. Excellent graphics, good accounts. It only has a page but does more with that than any of the other tabloids.

Overall, if you have time read the Telegraph, failing that the Times or Guardian. For pure summary pick up The Metro if you are in town.

Emergency! Red Alert! Diversion!

John Reid has come out yesterday saying that the Home Office should be split into two groups, Security and Justice. Yet another crisis is looming from this minister of Public Woe. He certainly is not a good news man, is he?

Even toady Lord Falconer, not to be titled prospective minister for Justice, has defended this idea on Andrew Marr's show this morning.

Yet, I cannot understand it. Why do you need to break the Home Office up? After all the only real reform here it to add ministerial interference by increasing the numbers of politicians wading in.

If the organisation has poor chains of command and leadership then it should be re-organised internally with new reporting structures. This is what companies like GE, Hanson, TUI and other conglomerates manage all the time.

So the issue will not be resolved by a split, only by a change of management. This whole idea is then a red herring.

I wonder why? Perhaps Guido, Iain, Praguetory and others can help enlighten us as to why the government is currently engaged in such large smokescreen initiatives.

Gordon: New World Order

Broon is in the news today giving some sort of foreign policy speech. I say sort of because it is a mish mash of vague ideas rather than anything concrete in terms of realistic policy.

Talk of reforming major international institutions is in my view pushing it for a man not even yet elected leader of a mere 5% of the world's GDP and 1% of it population.

However, what really struck me as odd was that the speech seemed to be based on a classic H G Wells novel, also titled New World Order.

In this book (skim it, it is free, short and here), Wells speaks of the horror of the world being slowly ruined up by an expanding global bureaucratic government. He writes brilliantly of class hatred basis of socialism. He was referring in the aftermath of the 2nd World War to the UN, Bretton Woods agreement and so forth. He saw socialism and collectivism as the death of Britain and the world as we know it, at the hands of dangerous revolutionaries.

Yet this is what Brown, in his vague way, is also suggesting. Clearly he wants the end of Britain than even I had thought. I think he may even have read Wells and as a socialist drawn the opposite conclusions.

Except Brown thinks world government expansion is all a good thing. More EU interference and more UN action. He says:

"you cannot meet the challenges of the future by simply building the present in
the image of the past."

What about failure of the UN at Kyoto, over Iraq, during the cold war, in child abuse scandals, the list of goes on. As for the EU, what are its great successes? How are either of these institutions in any way democratic and able to represent the wishes of British people?


But these institutions are to be our future governors, not all this messy democracy and representation that he has to put up with now.

A dangerous man is Gordo; statist, anti-democratic and without positive vision for the world. How sad I will be when he becomes our Prime Minister.

UK Skills & productivity - Leitch Review

Sir Digby Jones, the new ambassador for Skills in the UK was on the Today programme this morning to discuss the Leitch review.

The Review was published last December as a review of the way skills are developed in the UK. Overall there it takes a dim view of our achievement to date. We have 5 million adults who cannot read even the yellow pages and 11 million who could not count their change in a shop properly.

Interestingly the report notes how adult education is critical to learning, as we will in future have fewer graduates and school leavers due to demographic change.

My view is that our educational failure is the main cause of our low economic productivity relative to competitor countries such as the US, France and Japan. Also the report notes we spend about 1% of GDP on higher education, with 2% spent as the OECD average (see here how poorly we do in the various tables) . Also in China and India much greater store is set by learning and education.

I hope Digby, always outspoken in his career, will lead the charge to improve the situation. No doubt government will take a nannyish role; especially with the weak Bill Rammell in charge.

We need to get our population to want to train itself, have the self-motivation and even be willing to pay for their own training. Sadly, I cannot see a Labour government and associated quango's being able to change the mentality that all your education is courtesy of the state and finishes when you leave school. I hope the Tories can come up with some better policies in this crucial area.

UPDATE: Ian and Newmania have rasied good points in the comments section.

More bad economic news

Many economists wrote earlier this week that the decision to raise interest rates would mean a peak of 5.25% or 5.5% at most (here).

Not me, even though not a 'real' economist, it is painfully obvious that the macro-economic situation has tipped.

Today the ONS, whom are not as neutral as they say they are, have released their inflation figures (here). These make for poor reading, CPI up to 3%, RPIX up to 4.4%. This means inlfation has taken hold at the highest level since the disastrous peg to the Mark (see ERM) in 1991.

There are few downward trends, with the Government having to hope fuel costs fall back significantly and that clothing falls in price. The first is unlikley given the political instability of Iraq, Iran and Venezuela.

The second is unlikely as the sales and Christmas are over, meaning retailers will move away from discounting to selling full price summer ranges.

So be prepared for 6% interest rates this year.

If all that does not convince you, read this article by the investment strategist at Goldman Sachs, courtesy of the Telegraph.

unextraordinary

normally I avoid these things, but sometimes you need to exception to prove the rule:

Your Inner European is Irish!

Sprited and boisterous! You drink everyone under the table.

Who's Your Inner European?

All so good, all so predicable given my Irish ancestry!

Although the drinking everyone under the table bit is an aspiration rather than a trait.

..and this is surely some sort of sick joke

First they tried a computer system for the CPS and it did not work. So then they tried the CSA, more money; still with no progress. So they thought perhaps let's try something bigger and designed an IT system for the NHS. This too failed, but seemingly only inspired ambition amongst government ministers and their consultant IT architects.

So they thought up ID cards; but still their appetite is not sated.

So now they are floating this....

They have no shame!

2007 predictions update

Many people seem keen that we have an election this year. I am too, but this really is very wishful thinking. Slicker is sticking by the prediction that Brown will remain in character as a coward.

I note to the information here, that says that Cameron has raised £20 million for the Tories to fight a campaign. At the same time Labour is so in debt that it would rely entirely on the Unions to fund a an election fight; in itself likely to be hugely controversial and negative for the party when seeking middle class votes.

So, sadly, there will not be an election this year unless Brown has a sudden desire to commit political suicide.

Stagflation, anyone?

The Bank of England have raised interest rates to 5.25% today. Although the MSM will say this is a shock; it is nothing of the sort.

(A small digression here, most of the predictions you read in the papers come from Nationwide, Halifax and so on. As big mortgage lenders they always say interest rates have peaked, they want more customers after all. Trust only statements from independent economists or institutions that don't have some skin in the game.)

Indeed, my many posts and others on "Labour Inflation Lie's", show that real inflation is much higher; to curb this we need higher interest rates.

However, growth the past 2 years has been financed by cheap debt. The government has expanded spending by printing more money and the consumers have borrowed on credit cards and mortgages.

So a rise in interest rates will hit us all hard (Slicker included!). More rises are on the way and this will cause a general slowdown. However, the government spending goes on printing money (see here) and there is no other growth in the economy. So we have a low growth economy with high inflation. if House prices crash, a possibility, though not a likelihood.

This is known as Stagflation.

Well done Gordon, you have matched my expectations of dragging the economy back to the 1970's. Shame that nice Tory economy you inherited meant you got 5 years extra to achieve your dream, but he-ho.

Now, where's my passport?

Seriously though, make your job secure. The government will be forced to cut the money supply and so reduce demand. Unemployment has already been creeping up and will be forced up further by the cut in supply.

Playing FTSE

So rare I get a good headline. Today the London Stock Exchange has rushed out its latest trading report. This is to try to defend itself from a hostile takeover bid by the American NASDAQ.

Why hostile? Well the LSE decided against a friendly merger last year. Instead the US firm has built up a stake of 26% in the LSE. However, the shareholders of the LSE seem reluctant to accept the bid.

The reality of the situation though is that the LSE should let itself be bought by the NASDAQ. With the NYSE/Euronext tie up, the other two big players in the US/EU are already going to be in a strong position to undermine London. With NASDAQ the LSE would be a stronger long-term company.

Independence is possible for the LSE, but why? Shareholders will do better to have a share in a larger firm with better prospects. Better still a tie-up with Dynamic NASDAQ as opposed to the sclerotic European exchanges should mean that LSE/NASDAQ wins in the long-term.

Today is the day when shareholders in LSE reveal their first thoughts on the bid. I hope they accept.

Private Equity Update

I have posted numerous times on the Private Equity business (here, here, here and here) and the threat it has to our economy. I notice that commenters' here are split as to whether this is true or not.

I understand the view that this is merely a working of capitalism in market form. However, what is missed is that an unregulated market has allowed distortion to grow. huge finance has been raised to buy poor-performing companies that have turned out to be not so easy to turn round, see here in today's Sunday Times.

So what I hear you ask? The only people losing money are the City capitalists? This is the devil though, as if these companies go into administration they may well use the pension pot for the staff or even if no buyer can be found, go bankrupt. Now they are only going to go into administration because they are so heavily indebted. Money the venture capitalists have already taken out in profit.

So the Venture Capitalists have lost their own money and possibly the livelihoods of the companies too. You may say these companies were doomed anyway; but the unsustainable level of debt they have been burdened with won't have helped, will it?

Earlier this week, Little Chef, was a near victim of this, being bought out at the last minute. This kind of Private Equity failure will hugely increase throughout this year due to crazy deals that have been completed in the last couple of years finally collapsing.

Don't expect 3% GDP growth for the economy this year.

Labour's Inflation Lie, part 2

Inspired by an excellent article in The Telegraph today, I wanted to draw your attention to a gimmick they have which is actually quite useful. They provide a calculator in conjunction with Capital Economics (the hawkish one of the professional economics houses) that calculates your inflation based on your spending, here it is.

My rate was 5.8% for November 2006, an increase of 0.3% over October alone. Sadly my pay review is based upon the RPI rate of 3.2%.

This calculator at least can give one a reckoning of the real costs increases they face. It also shows up the flaws in CPI. The CPI basket is now deeply flawed as a tool for estimating inflation. So bad that the ONS is going to bring our a similar calculator to this one (great, more public money spent where private money has already provided a solution).

One final key point that arises from this is that it occurs to me, not only that the working, property owning, family raising people are most affected by inflation (along with property owning pensioners); but that as usual the feckless who have no rent, possibly no job and spend their money on short-term material goods are rewarded with a near deflationary environment. Where is their incentive to change behaviour?

How galling it is that government policy come to be so skewed to traditional Labour voting classes, even in what should be a neutral system of calculating inflation. Don' t just blame the EU for inflicting CPI on us; the ONS chooses the basket and has done a terrible job (see previous posts in the archives).

Meme

I have been tagged by Ellee with this meme. I have to tell you five things about me that you would not know. Hopefully as a anonymous blogger this means I should be able to say almost anything!

1. I don't actually work in the City, geographically speaking.
2. I have never owned any shares.
3. The animals that scares me most are mice and any other type of rodent.
4. As a drinking lightweight, I would easily lose to a small teenage chinese girl in a drinking competition.
5. Without doubt I am the least witty member of my family (2 bro's & sis) and regularly get taken to pieces at any family dinner event.

In turn I nominate Croydonian, mainly because I know he hates these things. And pour encourager les autres, I nominate a new blogger.

Countdown clock

I have added a countdown clock (see side bar) to a day when I hope Blair will be gone as our PM. My hunch is for the day after what will hopefully be a disatrous set of local elections should do it.

For a rewarding time, set up your own clock (very easy, here). I think a bottle of bubbly from Slicker to the blogger who get's closest is in order.

Honour system though, no resetting your clocks!

Slicker reviewed

The excellent Tom Paine, a blogger of better repute and quality than me by far, has completed a review of my site for the sake of Blogpower.

I am grateful for this and in turn urge you to look at lastditch in return. It is one of the two top Moscow based blogs, the other of course being James Higham. There is much excellence to be found , as his comment and discussion on the Simone Clarke controversy, shows him at his thoughtful and intellectual best.

Blogpower too is proving a great success, showcasing many excellent blogs (excepting mine of course!). I commend you to the many links on my blogroll, excellent bloggers all and capabale of opening your eyes to events and issues the world over.

New Year, New Template

and I don't seem to have destroyed anything major in the process!

Hope for Sanity yet

You may not know this, but today is one of the busiest days of the year for booking a holiday. A cure for the Post-Winterval blues no doubt. The Holiday companies are also engaged in a price war and are offering some good discounts.

Also last week saw a timely announcement by Thomson (owned by TUI AG) of an end to a silly business practice. They announced that they are to end the fuel surcharge on holidays. This at last makes them compliant with EU regulations which state that prices advertised should be the whole price and not just a headline.

No other Tour Operator does this, and most of the major airlines too add fuel surcharges as an extra. This always makes it hard to compare prices, especially online at places like cheapflights or dealchecker.

So I applaud Thomson's for being the first to make this move. However, what is given with one hand is often taken away by the other. The new trick, by First Choice this time, is to reduce the baggage allowance to 15 kilo's. Your average holiday bag weighs in at 19 -20. Now you have to pay the £10 for the 'extra' luggage. So this is just a surcharge by another name.

If you are looking to book somewhere soon, take all these factors into mind as they can make £30 -50 difference per person and so make a big impact on your holiday spend.

For once too I want the companies to follow EU regulations, you don't get surcharges at Petrol stations or on your sprouts at a supermarket; there is no need for this sleight of hand by Tour Operators and Airlines either. Ryan Air of course is the leader in this as per usual.