Will anything happen with Hammond as Chancellor?

I am hearing that the new Chancellor is not planning to do much with the Autumn statement. Really as a new Government in fact, one would have expected quite chance of doing something radical to show a difference to Osborne's non-austerity austerity.


Instead, there is a huge problem with Heathrow where Theresa May is very exposed in her own constituency of Maidenhead, who are deeply anti-expansion. Yet Gatwick seems to be off the menu as BAA have been so successful with their lobbying for Heathrow or bust.


In terms of the economy, it desperately needs some change of tack from the low-rates, low-savings, low growth model created by the Cameroons.


The chance is to boost growth by raising infrastructure spend and relaxing planning laws further. Also to end the pensions triple lock which is denuding many areas of Government of any cash.


However we are likely to get further tax cuts for business, which have so little impact on business investment when personal taxes are so high (most business are privately owned, the personal tax always ends up being key for 99% of people).


Then there is the long overdue review of both public sector pensions provision and the personal tax code including NI. If not now, when?

TrainGate two - Choo choo.

Labour really miss Alistair Campbell and Peter Mandelson in their PR roles..
They used to have the very best. But these days, no one of any use at all..

The pink bus, possibly the most ill conceived political idea of the century, was actually topped by rushing round to have a Yoof Vlog with Russell Brand. Much too late in the cycle to have any impact that wasn't going to be negative.
Incredibly, even that disaster was bettered. By the Ed Stone. Which became the symbol of the whole, horrifically badly orchestrated Miliband election campaign.
Modern politicians need the best spinners, and the best image makers available.

Many years ago, my highly respected PR company girlfriend, came with me as I was doing the BBC's clothes show. 
{Who remembers that show? I did it 3 times! .. none of you remember it? It was the One Show of the 1990s.}
She had heard a radio bit I had done the week before and was very critical of it. Critical, but professional. She did the "This is you...This is what you want to convey. This is what you said..and why you sounded like a jerk...here's how to avoid that in future." 
She really was very good. Headhunted by two top firms before she was 28. And she didn't start in PR until she was 25.
 
If this ex-girlfriend was advising Corbyn it would have gone.

- Why are we on this train? This is a long distance train. We don't want a train that has booked seats. We want a commuter train. 
We want a Southern Trains commuter train. We might get lucky with a cancellation. 

Don't get on yet. Get an establishing shot. Show the packed platform. Film in tight. Get the staffers around you Jez. Tighter than that..Good. Look packed..

Hey? You!..Why are you filming this on an iphone? He wants to be the next Prime Minister. He's not uploading to Instagram for his mates like he's on the school bus? Get a proper camera..You don't have one? I'm sorry..who are you? You're the Comms chief ?..And you didn't think to bring a decent video camera?..Ok..I see its going to be a tough day..  
This train isn't packed..pull the plug now..what? You want to go on?

 These are ticket booked trains..this is going to come unstuck quite easily? Ok, if you insist.. 

..Then find the most packed carriage. Why are you sitting here? ..what's that you said..? "Sitting on the floor makes you look like you can't find a seat?" No..It makes you look like a beggar at a cash point. .. Don't put your legs out..you look like you are hogging limited space..Don't pull your legs up - that look isn't for you. And take your jacket off. Its creasing and making deep shadows and looks untidy. And comb your hair..This is a film to explain some political point? Then try and reach out. The true believers don't care you look like a disillusioned teacher a week before retirement. You need to reach the ex-libs and the now going over to UKIP, former socialists.
Otherwise you might as well just send a tweet to the echo chamber.

Why are you sitting in front of the toilet? Your back is against the bog door. No one sits back against a door that might open. looks like you didn't realise. Or worse, don't care about others needs. Is that Private Eye you are pretending to read? Oh! you ARE reading it? You brought it along for the train journey..I see...well put it away. Get the Guardian..Who's got a copy of the Guardian among Team Jez, please? No One? Seamus Milne? You work fat the Guardian FFS! ,.You say... Its become a capitalist-imperialist-Blairite propaganda sheet? Mr Corbyn..This may be picked up by foreign media ...
 
Look..You're not reading Private Eye..Reading Private Eye is an invitation that gets you on the cover of Private Eye? Go down this "packed" train and get a Guardian or a Metro..or Angling Times. In fact ..forget that..Don't get anything..You are addressing the camera..you don't need any media..certainly not 'old media' Jeremy..You need to sort your legs out. You have them knees together and flopped into a corner. And this cretin is filming from above. You look like a Casualty actor, playing a disabled victim who's fallen from a wheelchair. 




Why are you still filming this on a phone? We can't hear what he says..He's on a moving train, in a corridor. And you are trying to get his words on a phone?

Jeremy..There is no such word as ram-packed..Its either Packed. .. Rammed... Jammed, or Jam-packed. Do it over.. 

Bend one knee up, put one leg half under you. Then rest..CASUALLY REST.. one arm on the knee..on the up knee Jez..Ok..Why are we filming this here. Either get in the bog and say this was the only seat and make a joke about Waterloo. Or film by the carriage door so over your shoulder the packed train interior is visible. Then you are standing up and don't look so homeless and tramp like. Spare £3.50p for a bottle of Virgin Trains Elder-flower, guv'nor?


You are concerned that diminishes the message, Mr Milne? What message is that?
The one that tells people  that trains are quite full?
 That since 1991 you have needed to book in advance for a journey? 
That the reserved seats empty after the first station?
That if you move along you may find an empty seat?
 And if you don't ask the train crew.

Everyone knows this already. This isn't news. It isn't policy. Its just a message of the bleedin' obvious.
If you want to show the merits of nationalisation, go on a nationalised, efficient train in Europe. If you want to show a bad service, go to London Bridge any Friday night. 

Then say
 "This is shite..we will fix it by doing XYZ and it will cost ABC and take PQR amount of time"  

..Right ..this is my stop. I'm off..oh..Milne..its really the end of the line for you too..Luckily you didn't give up the day job..so long..chumps.."

Ahh, she was good. She was earning £60,000 when she was 28, back in the 1990s.  The following year she gave it all up to have a baby and quit for good. Never went back. Women in the workforce..
but that's a post for another day.

Choo-Choo - Silly Season continues.

I was reading the obituary of Sir Antony Jay, masterly creator of Yes, Minister this morning


It made me think this morning that the really challenge of any comedy is to make it funnier than real life, or at least appear so.


Following  Yes Minister we had 20 years later the brilliant The Thick of It - reflecting the coarsening tone of public discourse and also the hectic madness of a 24 hour news cycle.


But yesterday we have a brilliant show, one of the world's best PR experts in Richard Branson against one of the world's worst, in Jeremy Corbyn. For anyone else, pictures of him walking past empty seats to made a little film about packed trains would be a resigning issue - after all it suggests complete lack of judgement and nous.


Oddly though, his opponent is in fact we find a comedic character, Owen Smith, who is actually worse as a public performer than Corbyn. Not as bad, or so, but actually worse. For example today, he passionately said he is opposed to Brexit and will make Labour do everything possible to stop it. Then, having besmirched democracy he calls Jeremy Corbyn a lunatic whilst on stage.


I mean, FFS, how can you do this? How can you be so bad. Literally, a man off the street could put in a better performance than either of these two.


Jim Hacker is a titan by comparison.

Sadiq Khan Becoming a Major Player

... and Greens, LibDems ... anyone with a vote, really

Sadiq Khan has long been someone to watch.  Happy to play the Muslim card, but basically a pure power-player, very much open for business.  Voice of Labour In The Wilderness;  Top-Ranking Elected Labour Politician;  Friend of the City in Brexit Negotiations;  Deliverer of the Multi-Culti Vote; Kingmaker for Owen Smith ... - makes Corbyn look like the side-show pygmy he is.

Looks like it's Khan vs Momentum-McDonnell for control of the Labour Party.

If, as several of us have mused, a primary scenario for the fate of Labour is to become the Muslim Party of England, Khan is obviously in the mix for years to come.  They'd struggle to find a leader who could better minimise the electoral oblivion that would ensue.  A messy triple negative, I realise - but you probably see what I mean.

ND  

UPDATE - Will Sadiq Khan be the next Labour leader?  - well there's a thing!  

Things you really should not say out loud...weekend thread

"I will negotiate with ISIS" Owen Smith

"I won't go to War in honour of NATO Commitments" Jeremy Corbyn

These two are obviously playing a very funny summer game 'double-down' where you compete to say the most silly things and see if you can get away with it. It is like a political version of the world's dirtiest joke...


So - where do we go from here - what is your political double-down to join in the fun?


I will start with:


"We need to help more Syrian refugees - open borders are the only correct moral choice"

Minimal Brexit economic impact...will it last?

Coming as no surprise to readers here, Brexit has yet to have any meaningful impact on the economy.


There was a 2 week heart attack in June/July after the scaremongering panicked everybody on the result. However, since then we have seen retail sales are up, inflation up slightly, a weakened pound has powered tourism and employment has continued to slightly fall. The FTSE is hugely up for good measure.


However, much as it is fun to point at the increasingly more desperate remainiacs and their howls of outrage, we won't really see the impact over the short-term. When article 50 is enacted, when the fate of EEA or not is decided, then bigger decisions about UK investment will be made. Of course, in the meantime things carry on and in and of itself this will protect the UK against the longer term threats. Companies already here are going to get stickier as time progresses and they see the effects of Brexit taking years or decades.


So perhaps Remain are right, 6% less GDP potential by 2030, I cant see how that will ever really be noticed.


As a bet, I can see growth for the 3rd quarter coming in at 0.5% or better, when the doomsaying remainiacs are saying it is nailed on shrinking and recession.

Smith says time to negotiate with ISIS

I promise to do this piece without breaking Godwin's law.


In another ridiculous Labour leadership hustings today, not much light was generated.


However a true blow was struck, challenger Owen Smith revealed himself to be a worse candidate than Jeremy Corbyn.


Corbyn, as everyone outside his cult knows, is just an old fool. Full of old, disproven ideas and charmingly convinced by them. He is useless, in a sort of Tim-Nice-But-Dim way.


Owen Smith, new to the political scene, has found himself out quite quickly. A right wing Labour man who is spouting any old left-wing guff to get elected.


Including the corker today of saying it is the right thing to do to negotiate with ISIS. I mean really, you first Owen, I'll buy your ticket to Damascus and hire a cab to take you to Raqqa, let me know how that works out for you?


This the day after he revealed, that the Tories still have a secret plan to destroy the NHS, eat babies and Harry the North....


It is incredible, where do they find these people. The guy has not one clue about anything at all and has managed to make the worst leader ever look like he is only the second-worst option.


Truly, we are in the summer silly season.

Elitist Olympics defeats ideological left

I am not usually that obsessive about the Olympics, but this year some very interesting things are happening to make GB sit second in the medal table and likely to finish 3rd yet again:


a) Since Lottery funding in 1997 started, GB has rapidly progressed up the medal tables at each competition. Basically, money for training, coaches and equipment makes a big deal when allied to raw talent.


b) The money though could have been splurged, instead, led by Tory Lord Coe, the money is focused on winners' and winning teams. Events where GB has no chance get no funding, medals win more money. It is a capitalistic form of financial support.


c) A huge crackdown on drug taking has taken place over the last few years. As such, you now see US, UK, and EU countries all in the top ten, whilst Eastern European countries have fallen away.

This tells me in an unfair fight, state socialism was able to game the system to their advantage - plus they also realised the importance for national pride a lot sooner than the Western countries. However, once the stage was made fairer, the application of money in the right way has allowed the Western countries to re-emerge as the leaders.


However, as we well know, money can be spent very badly indeed,  it is a credit to the system in GB that elitism takes prominence above all else and thus we have the winners we desire. There is a nice parallel here with bringing back grammar schools and the false arguments against them raised on the left.


How galling it must be for the Labour party, stuck in an endless leadership muddle, to also see a global event which undermines the ideology underlying most of their potential policy ideas.

To holiday in the UK, or overseas

• Families hit with a £250 holiday tax and a triple whammy of stealth fees
• Air passenger duty, VAT and insurance tax have soared by 40 per cent 
• Hidden car hire extras, currency scams and credit card fees add to pain

Said the headlines today. The pain of holiday.

This summer, the great debate of Overseas-all-in, versus, UK-All-to-Come took place in the BQ household. The cost was the big BQ factor. The sun was the Mrs BQ factor.Even though her pale, Irish skin can burn if she sits under a florescent tube.  Kids - Well, they just want to have fun.

Having only very, very recently got into the all-in, I am a convert. They were nothing like the chav, heavy drinking, fat face stuffing, Hi-de-Hi event I imagined. They are just for families on holiday. Doing family on holiday things. My 18-30 days clouded my judgement.

But, we do go to Cornwall sometimes too. Not camping. I couldn't put up a poster. And Mrs Q won't be further than 10 meters from a hairdryer. But cottage stay or resort huts thing is great.

A family of 4, 1 week to the med, all inclusive, first week of children's holidays was looking at about £3,500 last minute. That's a lot more than last year since all the terror outbreaks put Turkey and North Africa off many people's lists. 

A cottage in Dorset, £1100 rent for the week.But with zip included. Toilet roll and a welcome half pint of milk.

I was leaning to overseas. The UK sun had yet to come out. Instead being muggy with cloud. Sweaty and grey - So No UK - You cannot be trusted. With just your 4 weeks of good sun a year. And those weeks could be anytime from March-December.

The water park was free? {free entry - still have to pay for the stuff inside- that's not very clear in the brochure}. The beach was near. The food was 3-4star. The ice cream included. All the soft drinks the children could want. Wifi in areas? {probably the reception - not a lot of use} And the temperature - warm to boiling. Great.

But then the terror kicked off again in Nice. And I said lets go UK. Just so we wouldn't get stuck somewhere because there was a deadline involved.

Picked that lovely week when the sun was finally out in the UK. The drive to Dorset is about 90 minutes. The stress free aspect of home holiday can't be emphasised enough. Its worth a few hundred quid just to be able to drive to holiday. Park the car. Unload. And that's it. No airport parking fees. No ten hours in airports. Waiting and checking and stamping and loading and queuing and eating and queuing and dropping and forgetting and arguing and panicking and so on.  

Mrs Q had taken a few meals with her. {And had brought the shopping? Despite my best efforts, she seemed to think Dorset was like Belarus and they would only have strangely labeled tins of dubious contents. - They do have Sainsbury's , you know? I KNOW! ..{but she didn't really believe they would.}

WIFI included. TV and DVD all their - Books /games/ / garden/ It was really, very, very nice. Beach a stroll away. Water parks and adventure stuff and lots to do. It was a great holiday.

On balance, the cost is about the same between UK and over there.. Meals for 4, even only once a day, in the UK, is expensive unless its fast food. Attractions are really expensive. Any kid over 10 is an adult. Drinks out and ice cream  is costly. Parking, is costly. Boat trips etc ..all costly.

I think the UK trip probably came in about £300 less than the £3,500 all in. No more than £500 less. 

Of course, its possible to do it for much less if you just live like you would normally and not as if you were on holiday. Lunch from a meal deal at a supermarket. Only go where your national trust card will allow you. Use the vouchers and offers. Skip the treats. But where's the fun in that?

The trouble for the UK is that despite very significant advantages of a UK holiday, is that the weather cannot be relied upon. And that is a very significant factor in very many people's holiday plans.

Tax on a flight to the sun would have to rise quite a lot more to make the UK the first choice for most.

More aggressive taxing of UK business

The UK Valuations Office has slipped out a corker during the quiet summer period with the Olympics on.

From January 2015 (yes, retrospective) occupants of any building that does not have direct access between floors will be separately rated rather than treated as one joint rental. This leads to a much larger tax bill. Even if you rent and office and use the common parts, stairs/lifts etc, it won't count.

And this is retrospective. Helpfully, businesses wont knowhow much they owe until the VAO gets around to telling them.

Honestly, what a shoddy way to approach tax collection. It is highly aggressive in the extreme.

Australia shows the way

Obligatory Sporting Vague Link

It is hard to fathom really how the UK is still even thinking about going ahead with Hinkley Nuclear Power station. The facts have simply changed beyond all doubt since its inception, before we even get to the pathetic deal that was negotiated.

Meanwhile, the Chinese have made noises about how unhappy they will be if we pull out. This is really code for if you don't buy French, then buy Chinese direct. I think they are onto a loser with that line of thinking.

In a nice twist, the Aussies have today decided to stop China buying their power grid. Nice as the Chinese are they do have this rather well earned name for massive cyber attacks and economic cyber crime. I would agree that selling them the kit that runs a country is not such a good idea.

Sadly in the UK we have long since sold all key industrial backbone abroad, albeit we retain National Grid (it is a listed company though, so vulnerable). I am less worried by the French and Germans though as state entities.

So with the Aussies bravely clearing the way, perhaps Mrs May can do the decent thing and put Hinkley out of its misery and get on with fracking/gas alternative which won't be as cheap or as quick as we need, but is a lot better than the current impasse.

Corbyn silly season ad infinitum

Well a week away does not seem to have changed much for myself, thanks to BE, ND and BQ for keeping up the production line - no August shut downs for us.

(On that note, I was working with an Italian Bank this week and even they shut the office in August, its the only way the Owners can get the staff to take their paid holiday apparently, otherwise they just turn up for an hour a day here and there for the month....).

Anyhow, Mr Corbyn I am starting to find really rather intriguing. For a man who has held the same views all his life he appears to have come up with no policy ideas at all - everything is a protest. Worse, the Labour party have decided to put up an even greater fool against him in the form of Owen Smith. he also has no policies or indeed, ideas or, sadly, charisma.

So now, after some usual technical and legalistic skulduggery (funny how the anarchist left is always so keen on using bureaucratic powers to get their way?), Corbyn is totally nailed on to win a second Labour leadership contest.

I can only guess at his plan, which must be to hang in there until for some unknown reason the Tories come a cropper and he magically becomes Prime Minister. Or maybe no, perhaps the UK descends into 1970's and worse style strikes and social disorder and there is some sort of left-wing Coup.

Anyway, this is all very unlikely indeed. The more pertinent, and hilarious, issue is what do the Labour moderates do. Their party is gone, soon they will face deselections and see the end of their rebellion. But my hunch is they don't have the cahoonas' to go full SDP2 and leave as they have no voter base to work with - trying to steal some of the Lib Dem's 8% does not look good and they HATE the working class who now vote UKIP (Emily Thornberry as the stand out example).

So they perhaps will resile to their fate and seek jobs at charities and such like or back in PR and Schools whence they came. It would take a heart of stone not to laugh. Key tip for next time, don't invite vampires into your house, it never ends well. At least they will have time to watch some movies.

The gaiety of the nation is ensured for at least 4 more year with Corbyn ensconced as leader of the opposition and that bit is at least good news for all.

What this means for politics in other parties in the UK, is for another post.

Trooble at UKIP Mill

The occasional glimpse of goings-on down UKIP way remind one of nothing so much as a particularly hyperactive and foetid Students Union.  How Michael Crick can bother himself to figure out what's happening is beyond me.  

Conventional wisdom is that it's all part of Theresa May's miraculous legacy: the only cohesive force she faces is the SNP.

But hang on: doesn't UKIP have a vital role over the coming few years - finishing off Corbyn's Labour in the North, and disciplining any back-sliding Tory MPs - ?  

One of the big lessons of the last 120 years of British politics is that we are (were?) naturally a two-party state.  If UKIP can be reckoned on to self-destruct (and they are evincing that rather effectively), one can see Owen Smith's vision rather clearly.  And indeed John McDonnell's ...  May rather needs these two and their respective camps to wreak their own acts of fratricide.

ND

Let's make some money

 When its the school holidays my children are sometimes found in my workplace. Playing Ipad and drawing and watching TV.  Usually its auto default is to Sky News.

My boy, who is 7, asked,

 "Did that man just say he was going to print some money?"
"Yes..I think he did."
"Wow ..that is an awesome idea.."

And he set himself to work, following the best advice of the financial experts of the BOE.

One Killien pounds

He copied a tenner, and added a dose of inflation.

"This is Queen Elisabeth the 2. She owns all the money in the country"
"Great ..Who's that on the back?"

"That's Charles Darwin. He invented the turtle. And he's Santa's dad. Because he went to Christmas island. And you can tell because they have the same beard."

"I see .. And can we use this Killien pounds in the shops? To buy lots of things?"

"No..that would be a crazy idea. "

I hope you're taking note, Mr Carney.

Also ... I don't think I ever got my £10 back.

Plain Speaking in the FT - For Once

Newspapers in thrall to advertisers are very rarely a good source of writing on the failings of corporates.  The way the FT berated itself (after the event, of course) for having failed to finger the Enron thing brewing was pitiful to behold.

And I'm by no means a fan of the FT's Nick Butler: but for once he has written plainly and truthfully.

Nuclear safety ...  yeah, right

... the experience of Hinkley Point demonstrates that civil servants and ministers are not well equipped to negotiate complex commercial deals against corporate entities with highly developed skills who are able to employ every device, including slick PR techniques against them. On Hinkley the UK negotiators were rolled over.

There will be few projects as large in scale as this one but there are several — including HS2 and the third London airport — where huge amounts of money are at stake. The failure of the Hinkley negotiations, which is commonly acknowledged now in Whitehall, has encouraged the new leadership of the civil service in their desire to develop much higher levels of expertise in key disciplines cutting across their outdated 19th-century structure. They deserve complete support from Mrs May and her ministers. These skills are needed now more than ever because of Brexit ...

We could have done with a bit more of this three years ago - the Telegraph was the worst, seemingly a paid mouthpiece of EDF around that time  ("slick PR techniques ..." - yes, and totally unsubtle advertising cash).  But they've all come over from the Dark Side nowadays.  Better late than never ... 

"On Hinkley the UK negotiators were rolled over" - ain't that the truth.  And his Brexit point is the right macro-conclusion, too.

ND

Copying the USA election

Following on from Blue Eyes and electoral methods, what would the UK look like under the United States system?

 

The USA has 50 states that are allocated electoral votes on a mostly by population system. The more populous the state, the higher number of electoral votes each state has. Each state totals up the votes and whichever candidate has the most votes, wins those electoral college votes.
Its FPTP with a twist. 

There are a number of anomalies with voting by district. And some underpopulated states such as Alaska and Hawaii are hugely over represented, but these minnows they still only have 3 votes per state. Once a hopeful presidential leader amasses 270 votes, they win. Unless its Al Gore.

The UK has 64.1 million people. Taking that as a basis each region of the UK has a number of people within each of the 9 English regions and the 3 of the nations that make up the UK. 
The South East region is the most populous with some  8,634,750 people. The smallest region is Northern Ireland with 1.8 million people.

 

The UK has about 20% of the USA population. {which is pretty amazing if you think about it. The UK is around 60% of the size of California.  But has 1.5 times the population. Wyoming has 10% of the population of Scotland.}

Taking 20% of the total people of the USA x 20% gives {with some fiddling because I could only find 2008 data} and we have an electoral college of 106 to allocate. We add one because the USA got itself into a right mess by having an even number of votes.

107 with 54 needed to win.

 By Region - number of EC votes

South East - 15

London - 14

North West - 12

East of England - 11

West Midlands - 9

South West - 9

Yorkshire and the Humber - 9

Scotland - 9

East Midlands - 8

North East - 4

Wales - 4

Northern Ireland - 3

By region at 2016

South East - 15 {con}

London - 14 {lab}

North West - 12 {lab}

East of England - 11 {con}

West Midlands - 9 {con}

South West - 9 {con}

Yorkshire and Humber - 9 {lab}

Scotland - 9 {snp}

East Midlands - 8 {con}

North East - 4 {lab}

Wales - 4 {lab}

Northern Ireland - 3 {dup}

Con - 52
Lab - 43
SNP - 9
DUP - 3

So Nothing much changes. The Tories need DUP to win. Labour need SNP and DUP to win. West Midlands is the only region likely to change from Con to Lab. Still not enough without SNP.

Under USA system that wouldn't happen anyway. If neither had more than 54 votes then each region would have one vote each to elect a Prime Minister. If it was 6 each then, I have no idea..

So what does this tell us?

Scotland and the rise of the SNP stops Labour winning.

London is growing faster than the South East. London has three times as many people as the North East does.

 Not a lot then..

Except we really, really, really don't need anything like 650 MPs. 

The Bullying Business

Prince William seems to have thrown himself into National Stand Up To Bullying Day (sic), "warning that unrelenting torment isn't just confined to the playground".  It's an odd one, isn't it?  Aside from places like prison or street-life in various unsalubrious neighbourhoods where the threat of physical violence is real, or in sordid workplaces where the threat of instant loss of livelihood is a serious prospect, how could grown adults be susceptible to bullying?  Well they are, and it's a striking phenomenon.

I suffered very little from bullying at school: we were a rugby-playing outfit, and everyone knew that however big a 16-year old would-be tyrant thought he was, there were any number of First-XV prefects who could mallet him effortlessly if he overstepped the mark.  Being beasted at Sandhurst was tough, but never personal.  It came as a shock, therefore, to find myself suffering under a bully in my first regimental posting: it was the CO, a petty tyrant whom I rapidly learned to avoid.  (It was because he was thick, had never been to university or Staff College, knew he was never going any higher, and had a mile-wide inferiority complex.)  I learned just how easily heavy-duty brow-beating comes to a certain type of overbearing individual, and how effective it can be even with people who are not of a particularly nervous disposition, and who'd ordinarily reckon to be able to fend for themselves without difficulty.

Having come under the thumb of this bastard, I vowed there and then never again to succumb.  One knows perfectly well that in most everyday environments there is absolutely no prospect of physical violence; and while you can perhaps be threatened with the sack etc, in reality it's almost always just bluster, however genuinely unpleasant.

This resolution has served me just fine, in the military and as a civvy: indeed the issue never seemed to arise again.  That was until in business I ran into a well-known commmercial negotiator from another oil company, we'll call him Jim (because it's just possible he hasn't succumbed to the ulcers he was obviously due).  His reputation went before him - "nobody ever stands up to Jim" - but somehow our paths hadn't crossed: until one day in a new job I found myself across the table from him.  Our two companies had a minor commercial tiff and Jim, contemptuous of the efforts of his underlings in the dispute, had decided to take the matter into his own hands.  I invited them to our offices, and there they were, six of them under Jim's glowering leadership.

Only Jim spoke (the rest - all grown adults, of course, lawyers and negotiators alike - looked utterly in thrall to him).  He started softly:  there must, he presumed, have been a fundamental misunderstanding on my part, obviously I was new etc etc; but I had thwarted him which was completely unacceptable.  He was here to have me reverse my position on the spot, publicly.  I politely demurred:  the exchange of correspondence between us that I had on the table in front of me clearly supported chapter-and-verse my position, which I proposed to maintain.

He raised his voice, his face blackened, and I could see his people sinking into their chairs.  Those who dared to flash a glance in my direction were clearly imploring me to concede in my own best interests.  He thumped the table, told me my company had once been good to do business with but was now beyond the pale; that it was entirely my fault; and that he would be taking the matter directly to my CEO.

I stood up and told him I was leaving, but that he and his crew were welcome to continue using the conference room if they wished.  I said that the CEO's office was on the second floor, if he'd like to call in afterwards; and bad them good afternoon.

Needless to say, a couple of days later a written apology arrived in the post; the misunderstanding was his & he hoped we could move forward etc etc.  And so we did.

But Jim generally prevailed, and made a lot of mileage for his company and himself using the bullying tactic elsewhere, before and since.  When one reads about the behaviour of the Fred Goodwins ("he manufactured fear") and the Bernie Madoffs ("people were afraid of Bernie"), one is in no doubt that they rose to great pinnacles in their respective callings by the same means.

Bullying adults?  It's real, right enough.

ND

The Nonsense that is Hinkley

Ho hum, what can we say?  The monstrous Keynsian job-creation scheme (mostly for Frenchmen) is "allegedly" underway.  What a joke, what a farce.

Many years ago, before EDF had bought British Energy, I wrote hereabouts:

That's still one of the major drivers for the French.   But the fat lady still hasn't sung yet ...

ND 

+ + + +  UPDATE  + + + +  UPDATE  + + + + 

Hoho, what's this - second thoughts from Phil 'open-for-business' Hammond?  He's every reason, FFS.  We can only hope.

Oh, America [again]

Periodically I fret about America, that great nation under whose umbrella (or shadow, your choice) we all operate.  So: open thread:  what kind of a choice is Trump vs Clinton?

If you'd like to start with some stats, here's polling overload to fuel you up. 

Personally, the word I can't get out of my head is corruption.   These people are deeply, deeply suspect.  Now money has always spoken in American politics, but generally it's been 'into my campaign coffers, please', rather than 'in my back pocket, thanks, cash'll do nicely', third-world style. 

On another tack - not the weightiest of considerations, perhaps - it's interesting how western nations seem to be moving away from the 'skip-a-generation' kick.  (Some people, *ahem*, find this quite encouraging.)

Over to y'all ...

ND

The Vision Thing

Do I detect the Beeb's post-referendum Continuity Project Fear beginning to run out of traction?  Maybe that's just my own optimism shading the landscape.  But relentlessly optimistic I remain, because there is just so much to play for, and the 'other side' is in such utter disarray.  Actually that should be 'sides' in the plural, but hey, Come the three corners of the world in arms / And we shall shock them. Nought shall make us rue / If England to itself do rest but true.

Not that the situation isn't fraught with peril.  In a situation like this one could wish for a Heseltine - an onside Heseltine, obviously - someone with tenacity, tactical nous and creativity: the chap who solved the Poll Tax in half an afternoon.  Is David Davis that man?  We shall find out.

I actually agree with whomever it was (can't find the link) who wrote recently that the government now needs to conduct itself as if we were at war.   Yes, it's big and serious!   Full attention and maximum effort required on all fronts.  Melt down some of the family silver.  Tighten the belt.  Grown-ups to the front.  Now is the hour.

Funnily enough, the early signs of exactly such an attitude that may be detected - everyone lauding the big cross-border investment deals that have been announced as proof we are open for business - make the wretched Hinkley all the more likely to "go ahead", however crass.  The French are obviously rushing to grab, quick, while stocks last.   So be it; a 'yes' in July 2016 means very little in practice, but has big symbolic importance and, given we really don't need the project & the French really, really do, confers some rather handy leverage.

(But isn't ND an implacable opponent of Hinkley?  Yup - which goes to show the priority I'm advocating for all things that tend towards advancing the main cause.)

I quite like the parallel Paul Goodman draws with the Stuart Restoration: a time for focus, creative politics and reconciliation.  Might draw this out a bit more on another occasion.  But an even more compelling analogy (and I hope I'm steering clear of the Godwin trap) is with Churchill taking the reins in 1940.  Phoney War coming to an end; focussed leadership drawing on eclectic resources; clear vision.  You ask what is our policy? .. what is our aim?..   

Just now the Vision thing is, maybe, a bit less black-and-white: a bit harder to articulate in detail what would constitute success.  But here's my attempt.

The settlement we reach - with Europe, and amongst the various parts of the UK - must be so good that the Irish (that is, the Southern Irish) should seriously start thinking about whether they want to join us.

I don't see why not.

ND

The silly season...at long last

After a hard month (it is not even 1 month since the EU Referendum) of politics and tragedy, the silly season is finally here in the news.


The main headline is a Welsh clown, going by the name of Owen Smith.


No for him the hard slog of working his way up the political firmament. No, Mr Smith instead seems to seek the Andrea Leadsom path to supernova status and then trudge quickly back to the darkness of anonymity.


Mr Smith has bravely pushed aside a well-known and liked Labour politician in Angela Eagle, useless of course, but then they all are. Now he is out there, promoting his own brand of meaningless phraseology:


"Jeremy has slogans when we need solutions"


This is fantastic, do you see what he has done, created a meaningless slogan to deride his rival by doing the same thing. Genius, of a sort.


Anyhow, the grown ups in charge of the Country have little to fear from the Taffia-leading Mr Smith. And neither does Jeremy Corbyn. Labour already have in a place a well-meaning out of touch loser, why replace him with another?

Abolishing DECC Offends 'The Elders' ...

Of all the interventions from the audience at the delightfully fast-moving show that is British politics, this has to be one of the funniest.  It's from "The Elders".

We regret decision to scrap @DECCgovuk. #Climatechange shd be priority for UK to meet #COP21 pledges but this will not encourage leadership.

We know Ed Miliband is pretty pissed off about the demise of DECC, but wow, he's got support from The Elders!   Who?  It's Nelson Mandela (worrying from beyond the grave), Jimmy Carter, Desmond Tutu, and Mary Robinson, to name but a few.

The whole COP21 things was itself a jolly fine festival of comedy at the time, and hasn't sobered up much since.  You will recall that last December 994 nations came up with the 'Paris Agreement', which committed them to two-tenths of bugger all.  It was to be 'signed' in April (which it was - in New York, at a big piss-up, which is the kind of thing they actually know how to do); but unless it is ratified by quite a large number of the big players by the end of one year, it will be null and void.  Has anyone ratified it?  Yes: a handful of island nations who fear disappearing off the map as the oceans rise; plus, errrr, France.  Yes, France it was who orchestrated the whole empty thing, because it is M.Hollande's legacy, don't you know.

Elder Mary Robinson has yet more to say on the subject. 

The likely US Republican presidential nominee, Donald Trump, has said he would try to unpick the deal, but Robinson said if it was ratified by the US this year “unwinding it would be very prolonged and difficult" 

Difficult for whom?  The Agreement states that after ratification, anyone wishing to abandon it must merely notify the registrar of ratifying countries.  Sounds rather easy to me.

The appropriate response must be the one Father Ted was obliged to give after losing a forfeit.  He had say to b*ll*cks very loudly in front of President Mary Robinson ...

ND

ARM is gone - sometimes M&A is a good thing

Softbank bought ARM today £24 billion.


It is a great price, but as ever the UK model is to build and sell. It is almost impossible in the UK to become the dominating player in an industry - it makes Vodafone and GSK almost unique.


It also shows, whatever the naysayers in the city tell everyone, that M&A works. If you are a small company and growing, you need to bet the farm on overseas growth and acquisitions; just like Softbank have done.


If you remain an organic growth focused business the chances of you dominating your chosen sector(s) globally is tiny.


Yet the same people who bemoan that Brits sell-out to the world all the time (this is true, Brits have a life view very different to Yanks or others in that a few millions is enough, no need for billions); also bemoan that M&A is only for the Banksters and serves no purpose.


The counter-factual here is what if ARM had used its shareprice to buy into a new business that really scaled it - but it never did. Instead it made a whole host of small acquisitions in businesses aligned with itself.


SO, like many before it, it is gone to the Japanese. Hopefully they can keep the mainstay of the business in the UK for the foreseeable.

Very sad about Nice

Hard to believe there are people so evil and mad enough to do such terrible thing, but there we are it is all too real.

Open Thread - Cabinet Appointments

We lost Osbo!


If I had not been in the office until 10pm last  night that would have been worth a drink. I see Hammond as being a far better Chancellor - no more scheming Brownian nonsense in No 11.


On the downside, we gained Amber Rudd as Home Secretary. Rudd truly is useless. Luckily, Home Secretary is not that important at the moment and no doubt she will screw up really quickly and be gone; at least her fingers are off energy.


Boris is a terrible choice for Foreign Sec, should have swapped him and Fox around but there we are.


Lots of Brexiteers is good news for Brexit and the Country. Hopefully we will quickly move to WTO now and avoid the fudge - here is hoping anyway!


So...let's see what this morning brings...

Cameroon, Silver Spoon era.

 

The May Day Parade begins. The Cameroon era ends a little sooner than expected. Only a little sooner as we know David Cameron was going anyway. Probably in 12 months or so time. He hasn't gone as he would have wished. And  he will now be as historically defined by the referendum he called, as Tony Blair is by the Iraq War he began. Not a legacy he would have chosen.

 How do we rate the Cameron era? Good, bad or just..meh!?

The referendum does rather define the weaknesses of his era.  Continuity New Labour was very evident. Cameron was one of the early Tories to realise that it wasn't possible to beat an election winning machine like Blair by opposing his populist policies. It seems obvious now, but not that long ago the Tories answer to Tony Blair's success was to try and attack all his popular measures. When that failed it was to point out the flaws and the contradictions and the cost of all the magic money. But the Tory media was not a patch on the Labour one. So the attacks failed. Worse, they rebounded. The 'Nasty party' was back.

Cameron saw all this and figured, if you can't beat them, join them. To the annoyance of very many in his own party. But he was right. It is only in very recent times that Tony Blair's star has faded. That spin doctoring every sentence in every provincial newspaper has been discredited. for years and years that was what worked. And Cameron wanted to win. So the never actually called, but absolubtely was, New Tory, was born.

Not defeating the dysfunctional Brown government outright was a bad blow. It should have been easy. And without the world economic crash and all those spending promises to out Brown, Brown it would have been. The Tories were well ahead and remained so up until the point that they spoke about making some cuts. Then the gap narrowed. 
And, with hindsight, we know the polling has been off for quite a long time, so don't really know how close it ever was. Untried Posh boy versus Financial Titan?

The coalition was probably Cameron's biggest success. There was instant talk of how long it would last. Six months to a year was considered good. Cameron managed to make it last the term. And in doing so he also destroyed the Liberal Democrats. 
He stopped the financial crash getting any worse for the UK. Steadied a very rocky ship in difficult waters. 

The defeat of Miliband was a s welcome as it was unexpected. So one and a half wins out of two. pretty good for a post war British PM.

Too much sofa cabinet. Too much of  clique. To much party centralisation. Silver Spoon toffs and a lack of any real, real vision other than keep the Trots away from power and make Britain a nicer place.

Too much government.  And too much politics playing. That continuity Blair again. Too much concern with how the media would play an event and not enough about the actual long term consequences of the event. Those '10s of thousands of immigrants' promises. "Cast iron". Even his 'making savage cuts' narrative for the first year, when few were made at all. All those 'Spins' eventually came back to bite. The internet and social media had rendered much of New Labour's manipulative methods obsolete. It was a mistake to persist with them.

And of course the biggest folly of all. Shooting the UKIP fox short term, by promising an EU referendum he didn't want or even need to call. This wasn't a Scottish one that was forced upon him by the destruction of Labour in Scotland handing a very unexpected majority to the SNP, who used their power to demand one. This was a referendum Cameron himself chose to allow.
That decision was made worse with the all too predictable  'Renegotiation with Europe' fiasco before the campaign had even begun. 

On paper, it all looked good. Promise a referendum that killed the Tory dissent and stopped the drift of voters to UKIPt. It put both liberals and labour, who refused to go along with it, on the unpopular side of the popular argument. A New Labour/Tory tactic from the best of their playbooks.
And the Tories were expecting a coalition anyway. No need to ever implement that manifesto promise.

But they won, and so it had to be delivered. 

Going early was the best option. Nothing in Europe was going to get any better in the longer term. probably much worse. The real mistake was firstly trying to renegotiate from a position of weakness instead of strength and secondly identifying himself so strongly as the leader of remain. 
He needn't, indeed, should not have, done either of those things. Plenty of government ministers available for those roles. By taking them on himself, Cameron ensured that if the remain ship went down, he would go down with it.

One of the things I liked most about the Cameron era is him personally. He looked like a prime Minister. spoke like one. Sounded like one. Was reassuring and confident. He looked like the British Minister wherever he was. The number of gaffes he made was minuscule. Considering this was a man who was televised every day at every occasion he ever attended for 10 years, that was pretty impressive.

Especially if you recall the lumpen troll that had come before him. A national embarrassment at any diplomatic event. A man who needed his own wife to hold his hand at a party conference of his own party as he was so incapable of leadership and gravitas.

It doesn't sound like much of an achievement.  

Cameron didn't fall asleep at the G8 with his tie in the soup.
Or tumble down the stairs of Airforce one. 

That's not the angle. 

Cameron looked, sounded and acted like a leader at a time that the country desperately needed a leader. His personal approval ratings were always well above his party. he was a very reassuring presence. 



That should be remembered when his legacy is debated.

South China Sea: Game On

Open thread on China's expansionism.  We've looked at this before, and as the Philippines wins against China in the Permanent Court of Arbitration, it's moving closer to the top of the front page.  

Wonder if our shiny new, *ahem*, 'aircraft' carriers were designed to 'project power' with the South China Seas in mind.  Hope they've read about the Repulse & the Prince of Wales ...

ND

UK: Clarity of Power

23rd June - Power Vacuum


23rd June - Netherlands Prime Minister - Britain is basically an economic and politically failed state




...18 days later, new Prime Minister announced, Brexiteer leaders defenestrated but then will be picked to lead Brexit in a more pliable way.


It is pretty good going and demonstrates how quickly the UK can move on large challenges. Spain is about to go for its 3rd General Election of the year to try and resolve its issues.


This is a key reason why the UK will remain the pre-eminent destination for capital and investment in times of stress - because the world sees a determined Country that deals with some (if not all..) of its problems when compared to everywhere else. And does it without resorting to authoritarianism but within the confines of representative democracy.

The Entertaining Torment of the Leftist-Feminist

One of the gloriously predictable joys of the current political turmoil (and there are many) was that the leftist-feminists would be in an ecstasy of despair over the Tory Party cheerfully lining up a run-off between two women for the top spot on the greasy pole.   That's women, not wimmin.  But they're not proper wimmin!   Indeed they are not - hahaha!  Why can't the Labour Party have wimmin at the top?  Because, oh, the reasons are many.  Because they are useless.  Because the Labour Party is dominated by neanderthal northern union-members (have you ever met any of them? or any 'traditional' northern / scottish Labour MP?).  Because, in the immortal words of a CiF BTL comment, "the main problem with tokenism and quotas is that you just end up with Diane Abbbottt".  etc etc.   

And another from CiF:

"... the current Labour membership would rather elect the most clearly useless man than debase themselves by backing a competent woman. Knee-jerk sexism - fiercely denied - is one of the most predictable characteristics of the Left, much moreso even than the obvious but fiercely denied knee-jerk antisemitism, knee-jerk anti-Americanism etc. And very strongly tied to their fiercely denied alliance with Islamism."

And so the agonies commence, oh this is fun.  Here are my first two sightings for the collection:

• Deborah Orr in the Grauniad
• the strident and strikingly inane 'Canary'

- and if you see any more, please do drop the links in the comments.  It's not nice to mock the afflicted, but - well ...

ND

Clutching at Bremain straws

The media is an interesting creature. All week I have watched it report every slight fall in the FTSE as the harbinger of doom and ignore any rise.


The mood music is unrelentingly downbeat. I work in the City and it indeed pretty crap.


Property and M&A deals have been put on hold. Companies are already looking at how to move their HQ's into Europe. Some staff are thinking of going home...


Re the transactional deals, even with super optimism I can see this is an issue that will last for a few months yet. That in itself is bad for business, but M&A and Property deals are not the whole world (although many debt markets are shut too).


On the other hand, property prices are about to fall quite quickly and this will stimulate demand. A lack of new issues is generally good for current equity market participants too...just not the Banks who provide the commentary.


Also, we seem to have dumped most of our useless political leaders. This is a good thing, especially if we get a new Chancellor and Leader of the Opposition who is not a cold war commie warrior.


But he most egregious thing I keep seeing is very well fed and paid people moaning about the result. Claiming the referendum should be voted out of Parliament, hiring lawyers, marching and whining. Just today I had one chap bemoaning the state of the world as he locked his DB9.


My hunch is if they ran the referendum again the Leave vote would be higher. It achieved its main objective - change to the liberal elite media dominance. Why would we not do so again?


Because we might lose Scotland - give the English a vote on that issue and St Nicola would be happier than ever?


No the moaning about the result is both dull and expected. The deed is done, the die is cast, the Rubicon crossed, the fat lady is in the cab on her way home.


Let's get this pesky bit out of the way and plan for the future  - the quicker we do it, the quicker the economy recovers.

The Scruples of Tony Blair

They went to war in a Sieve, they did, 
In a Sieve they went to war: 
In spite of all Hans Blix could say, 
At Bush’s command on that fateful day 
In a Sieve they went to war! 
But when no weapons were found in the place 
And every one cried, “You have no case” 
Said Tony Blair “we’re trusting to luck
We don’t care a button! we don’t give a f***! 
In a Sieve we’ll go to war!”

Far and few, far and few, 
Are the scruples of Tony Blair; 
His lies are bold and he’s shameless too, 
And they went to war in a Sieve. 

They went to war in a Sieve, they did 
And totally unprepared 
With not enough armour for soldiers to don 
With too few choppers – the list it goes on 
But Blair, he never cared. 
And everyone said, who saw them go, 
“O won’t they be soon undone, you know! 
For the list of shortcomings is terribly long, 
And happen what may, it’s extremely wrong 
To send our boys unprepared!” 

Far and few, far and few, are the scruples of Tony Blair... 

The casualty figures soon started to rise, 
The coffins they soon came in; 
So to cover their arses they lied and lied 
(No sign of remorse for the many who died) 
And they gave the order to spin! 
And they hunkered down at Number 10 
And they lied and they spun and they lied again 
"Though the charges against us be ever so long 
Yet we’ll never admit we were rash or wrong. 
While we have breath, we spin!” 

Far and few, far and few, are the scruples of Tony Blair ...

(with apologies to Lear)

ND

Fox, Crabb Gone - Hopefully Osborne Too

So CU called Fox right: he's gone, and Crabb too.  We're down to May, Leadsom and Gove, with the Fox and Crabb votes - now adrift - being directed at May.

Can we please hope this means May will feel sufficiently confident as not to need Osborne in any shape or form?

ND

If We Think The European Commission Is Bad ...

You probably hadn't noticed but last month we go a new Energy Act, entirely home-grown here in the newly-liberated UK.  "An Act to make provision about the Oil and Gas Authority ..." it says in the preamble.

To get a flavour of just how interventionist this bastard quango is allowed to be, feast your eyes on Chapter 4, entitled 'Meetings'.  In brief, if anyone operating in the North Sea is holding a meeting between two more more companies, they must give the OGA 14 days notice about it, and the OGA can insist on attending.  Or join in the conference-call: yes, they've thought of that one.

Pause for effect.

For a decade I was extremely active in this sector and let me tell you, the number of meetings between companies was astonishing.  This is because (a) it's very usual to form joint ventures to carry out exploration & production in the North Sea, sometimes with many companies involved (check out how many licencees there are in some North Sea permits); and (b) because oil and gas fields often straddle more than one production licence.  The sector has consolidated a bit over the years due to the natural decline in production, but the same principle pertains.

And now the man from the OGA has a right to dip in his wick at all times**.  We haven't had dirigisme like this since Tony Benn made BNOC a carried participant in every licence back in 1975.  But this is 2016, under a majority Conservative government.

And guess what.  

'Andy Samuel, Chief Executive of the OGA welcomed the news that the Energy Bill has now gained Royal Assent. "This is an important step in establishing the OGA with the necessary powers ..." ' 

I'll bet he bloody did.  And, to repeat myself, this is 2016, under a majority Conservative government.

ND  
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 

** I have a feeling they'll be deluged by hundreds of notifications of "meetings to discuss what biscuits to serve on the Brent Alpha platform" etc.  Also, m'learned friends have not been slow to point out that the Act doesn't take precedence over legal privilege.  And for a small fee, no doubt, they'll be happy to tag along to discuss the biscuits ...

Fox will go Tuesday, then who and then what?

Tory Leadership elections are quite something. Labour really could learn a lot from their opponents..as could UKIP!


By teatime tomorrow the Tory field will be down to 4 already, May, Leadsom, Crab and Gove.


Given that Crabb is not really in it the race at all, then it is the 3. By Tuesday next week then we will have the final two and the vote for the party will be being arranged.


I find it hard to see beyond Teresa May who personally I would not go for. After the Brexit vote, strong Brexit leadership is called for. If we want a remainiac, we could have just stuck with Cameron.


Still, I don't get a vote these days so my tuppence is not worth even that.


Of more interest this week and far, far more importance is:


1) Will the markets and Sterling settle down at last?
2) Will all the deals and IPO's put on hold start to come back at all?
3) Will big ticket retail spending come back?


I certainly don't expect all 3 to happen, but the latter could turn around quite quickly and the first of those should be the case. They key is point 2 - that alone is a big weakening of the economy and it has to be reasoned that the suspensions will continue as it is the middle of the summer anyway and decision-makers who are not already on Ramadan will be off to St Kitts anyway in a few days.

The 'Genius' that is Gove

Now hang on a minute here.  Gove is no genius.  Apt commentary on Gove comes in a brilliant 2012 Stephen Collins cartoon in the Grauniad, of which this is a detail:

Stephen Collins / COLiLLO.com

It doesn't end well.  

Remember that in the Westminster bubble, 'Nudge' is considered a work of profound political philosophy: and for being an afficianado of said inane book George Osborne was considered wise beyond his years.  The bar for genius in that parish is set very low.

(All the talk seems to be of how Gove stabbed Boris in the back.  Might it not be that he put a gun to his head ..?)

I love reading the Labourites prosing on about how the Tory Party is in meltdown and that now is a time for capitalising on this (instead of what they are actually doing, viz mass self-immolation).  Nope: the Tory Party, a very serious power-minded entity, is seriously about the business of Choosing A New Leader, a post which naturally attracts the toughest and most ambitious in the termite-nest.  Might it be bloody?  Yes.  Will it be protracted?  Not particularly.  Will it end with everyone dead on the floor?  Assuredly not.

Will the party re-unite to win the next election?  Most probably.  Because if it's done adroitly, (a) Tory deserters to UKIP will come back into the fold - quite quickly, in fact;  and either (b) Labour will insist on opposing Brexit and be finally wiped out by UKIP or (c) Labour will do whatever it takes to win back its UKIP defectors, in which case ...

ND

UPDATE: in the comments, our good friend Kev asks:  Do we allow cartoonists to influence which leaders we choose? 

What a great essay title!  Beware, you may get the essay ...