Schopenhauer on Blogging (3)

"He who writes carelessly makes first and foremost the confession that he himself does not place any great value on his thoughts." (1851)

Nothing changes

'Consumer Inertia' - To Them That Hath ...

The Centre for Competition Policy at the UEA has found that half of the population have never switched gas/electricity suppliers, and are paying more than they need to accordingly. Further, even some that have switched have done so for the wrong reasons so that they, too, are paying over the odds. Their report is here. And we've had full consumer choice in gas and electricity for ten years now, one of the great achievements of John Major's much-maligned government.

On the plus side of this sorry but somehow inevitable story is the well-known economic phenomenon that you only need competition at the margins for at least some benefits to be felt across the market as a whole. In this case, we can be fairly sure that prices for even the inert 50% are somewhat lower than they would have been without the competitive market framework.

On the negative side, we can be equally confident that those who can least afford to pay over the odds will feature disproportionately amongst this 50%.

As ever, the Bible articulates the chilling truth:

To them that hath, shall be given. And from them that hath not, even that which they have shall be taken away.

Gordon No-Mates

If McBroon is to enjoy even a honeymoon-period of favourable press coverage, surely his best hope is the Grauniad?

Well, no: its two heavyweight political cartoonists have clearly decided otherwise. Steve Bell portrays him today in a soiled nappy (at least John Major's underpants were always clean in Bell's cartoons): and Martin Rowson captions McBroon's hideous visage with "Run for the hills!"

Standards of deference are pretty low these days, but in a Gruaniad context this is outright lese-majesty. McBroon is known to brood over newpaper coverage, and these things will gnaw at his entrails.

Knowing of old that regular visitors to this page don't tend to be patrons of that paper, the link to Rowson is here, and to Bell here (if you like soiled nappies).

Schopenhauer on Blogging (2)

"The first rule, indeed by itself virtually a sufficient condition for good style, is to have something to say"

How true, how true

Sunday Papers Roundup (2)

A brief Business roundup: dodgy business-political connections feature large this week

The Observer reports on fallout from the BAe affair, continuing to dog the company despite Blair’s disgraceful efforts to hush the whole thing up. Execs of its US affiliate are likely to face questioning by powerful Congressional committees in Washington over the allegations that the company bribed foreign officials in pursuit of arms deals – just when it is hoping it can pull off a £2.1bn bid for the US Armor Group, maker of armour (sic) for the Humvee military vehicles.

If Blair seriously thought he could draw a line unilaterally under this, he was being very badly advised (or operating in self-delusion mode). The international arms trade is a cut-throat business and his old mate Bush will cheerfully capitalise on the scandal.

On its front page rather than in the Business section, the Sunday Telegraph reports that Hilary Benn holds a £233,000 stake in a company that does work for his Whitehall department - “a major blow to his political future”, they suggest, and “a significant problem for Mr Brown, who has pledged a new Ministerial Code”.

Not sure about the latter: but in the Deputy Leadership contest it could well be enough to swing a few votes that Benn can ill-afford to lose. (Wonder what shares Blears owns ...?)

The Sunday Times reports that the "highly controversial" Russian conglomerate Alfa Group has recruited a Tory ex-foreign secretary (Hurd); a former British ambassador to Moscow; a man credited with having helped to build one of Britain’s most high-profile companies; the former chief executive of a leading European telecoms equipment manufacturer; plus a couple of well-connected Washington insiders, to adorn their corporate letterhead.

If they’d like to do some more investigative work they’d find several other equally ‘interesting’ Russian companies that also have some surprising UK non-execs in tow …

Sunday Papers Roundup

It seems likely that this weekend’s press coverage will be the high-water mark of goodwill for Gordon Brown: he will have spent several weeks briefing and spinning for the relatively benign coverage he has received.

But glowing, it ain’t. The Sunday Times leader offers as its honeymoon gesture:

"Mr Brown is not much liked by the public or most of his fellow ministers."

Even the Observer’s compliment is backhanded:

Mr Brown is off to a good start. By doggedness, machination, intimidation and persuasion Gordon Brown disposed of rivals and made his premiership inevitable.

If that’s as good as it gets, he’s in trouble ...

Business roundup will follow this evening

Personal Finance: Offshore Banking?

In this weekend’s supplement, Business and Politics looks at the pro and cons of offshore banking. Our guest writer is the chap who hangs around the alleyway at the back of the Economics Faculty at the University of Pisa.

Photo © Nick Drew 2007

Next week: from the street-murals of les bainlieux de Paris – offset mortgages

German Philosophers on Blogging (1)

It has been said (… pace, Croydonian ) that German philosophers lack the merit of brevity, which is of course one of the trademark virtues of the Slicker’s blog, and not one that a mere locum would dare to disregard

Fortunately, several of the wise Teutons are very capable in the pith department (when they come up for air).

And so I bring you … Schopenhauer on Blogging (1)

_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _

There are very many thoughts which have value for him who thinks them, but only a few of them possess the power of engaging the interest of a reader after they have been written down. (1851)

Uncle Joe McBroon

In 1956 Nikita Khrushchev addressed the 2o^th Congress thus:
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _

“Comrades! In 1922 Lenin wrote: After taking over the position of general secretary, comrade Stalin accumulated immeasurable power in his hands and I am not certain whether he will always be able to use this power with the required care… I propose that the comrades consider the methods by which Stalin would be removed from this position and by which another man would be selected for it.

"Comrades! As later events have proven, Lenin’s anxiety was justified. Stalin, who absolutely did not tolerate collegiality in leadership and in work, acted not through persuasion but by imposing his concepts and demanding absolute submission to his opinion … Where were the members of the politburo? Why did they not assert themselves in time?”
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _

OK you Labour MPs out there, you know it’s true, you’ve got 6 weeks, what are you going to do about it ?

And it's goodnight from him....but hello from Mr Drew.

So Tony Blair has said he will stand down at last. Can't say I am happy having seen his rather pathetic speech which the media are all over; bad as he is, Brown is worse.

'I did what I thought was right'.

..what sort of comment is that on 10 years of work? Anyone would surely say this about themselves apart from a total psychotic. I guess he reached this point as all his supposed achievements have nearly unwound themselves.

On that note, interest rates have gone up another .25% today which is no great surprise given the dismal underlying economic state of the country. I am not a pessimist by nature, but the state of public finances is very poor considering we are at the top of the cycle in terms of economic growth. interest rates will top at at 6%, which is alot if you have 5x salary owing on your mortgage like a lot of people.

What economy will Gordon Brown inherit? It is not he legacy that Major left for Blair, that is for sure.

I am not pleased at all that Brown is to be PM; an awful man with poor judgement and quick to anger. None of these are qualities needed in a Prime Minister. Sadly I don't think he is stupid enough to go for a snap election.

And with these comments, I am off for a break far away.

In the meantime for your delectation, the site will be looked after by the super-intelligent and incisive:

Mr. Nick Drew

He will no doubt do a better job than me in keeping you entertained for a couple of weeks.

See you all later.

Slicker off duty

Had a bad day yesterday and ended up in hospital; home (and better ish) today but blogging will be light.

Wrong again....

So much for my sidebar prediction of Blair going on the 5th May; like most things, my powers of prediction are somewhat less than Cassandra's.

Luckily for me no one took up my challenge; so at least I can drink the Champagne when Blair finally does exit stage right.

So maybe he will announce something this week, maybe not. No more predictions' on this subject from me!

Bank Holiday Business Round-up

Today's interesting business headlines, a good day today with some quality journalism which has had a bout of looking at some long-term issues:

Labour to re-nationalise the railways? - no surprise here, not they are set to lose the next election, they can play economic silly buggers.

Tide turns to RBS in banking war - is this of much interest outside of the City though?

Croydon Council move to a develop property - At last, some better ideas for developing the badly needed housing stock.

Manufacturing in UK now based in the South - An interesting point here from the Guardian, figures seem a bit suspect if you include R&D as manufacturing...

BP post Lord Browne - An analysis of what the future holds for all you shareholders.

Easyjet to the US - can low-cost carriers break the international market?

A nice short summary of the macroeconomic fix we are in - and how it will pan out...

..and a look at the consumer credit crisis too - not pretty, I hope it is not you!

Biofuels; The great green con - Top article, makes 2 valid points and then misses the winner that biofuels created more carbon emissions than fossil fuels!



Article of the week - What will Brown do when he is crowned? - A nice summary of the various policy options we will soon hear more about.

Local Elections comments

Come on, stay awake. This is real political wonk territory and is best served by and too those who are very interested in this kind of thing. So apologies to those who feel this is overkill

Having said that I have seen the news on and off all day. It has has made me choke to hear the Beeb say what a relative failure for the Tories today has been.

What?

840+ seats to Labour -460?

It is crazy and proves what craven believers of Labour spin the BBC are and has inspired me to think about another post on why they should be privatised...

It also made me think about how odd 24 hour news reporting has become. Yesterday I clearly heard that 500+ seats would be a good victory for the Tories, by none other than Nick Robinson.

So why the change today? They wanted a story this morning that is why. They had nothing to say when Scotland was too close to call, so 'the line' became Tory failure.

Not Labour disaster or Lib Dem meltdown. Once this line had been taken it has been defended all day, even in the face of the facts of the election. Tp be fair, Sky have done more or less the same as well as the Beeb, this is a media production/manufacturing problem.

It has come to a pretty pass when the media is defending its own commentary over reporting what is actually happening.

The Crazy Business that is Football

May is always a busy time for football, much to Mrs Slicker's dismay.

The Business that is football has been one of our UK success stories over the past few years. Since the inception of the Premier League in 1992 it has been an uninterrupted money making machine.

Although some fans, especially the more traditional working class fans who can no longer afford to attend matches so regularly, despise the way the game has gone, there can be no arguments from a business view.

10 years ago the league was well behind Italy and Spain, good overseas players would tend only to come to England if there careers were nearing an end, players like Jurgen Klinsmann and Gianfranco Zola.

Nowadays, the best in the world can't wait to get here because the money is so good. This money though, made from slick marketing and a good product on the pitch, has huge consequences.

Just today, the Wigan chairman has threatened to sue the FA over not deducting points from West ham. He thinks it could cost his club up to £60 million, which is what an independent analysis said today. This is big money.

Big enough that American sports billionaires are keen t get in on the action and this will ratchet up even further the money in the game and probably the profits generated for it.

For all this though, the game has changed, unlike American sports where the leagues try to maintain parity, the opposite has happened in the UK. With the new extra money this is going to get worse, expect to see the same teams at the top forever, unless they do a Leeds!

Apologies

To Mutley, Benedict White, Notsaussure and Stumbling and Mumbling. I have fixed your links in my side bar after weeks of ignoring it...

Also, minor apologies to all the new BlogPower members, I have added your links today. In particular would recommend Lord Nazh, Ruthie and Pommy.

There, all my housekeeping done. Off to comment on your blogs...

Lord Browne: Story of the day.

It is rare that I am left speechless, as Newmania and Croydonian will attest to.

However, the news that Lord Browne, former-greatest-CEO-ever-in-history, has resigned because of a gay love affair did indeed stun me. Not that I could care about this, but the fact that he has also led BP, after years of frankly brilliant service, to two high profile disasters is a sad denouement.

Did this affair take his mind off the ball? Or did events just catch-up with him?

Maybe he should have quit a couple of years ago when he was offered the chance.

Anyway, I once remember him making a comment at an event we were both at that ' Shane Warne is the best wrist spinner the world has ever seen and I am in awe.'

There was innocent me at the time thinking that this was a merely platonic statement of admiration...could I have been wrong?

Question on Climate Change?

I am passable at geographic knowledge, but no expert. Today something occurred to me know which I thought someone in the interweb might be able to answer?

How much land will become unusable with climate change, versus how much will become usable as the temperature increases?

My guess is that with Canada and Northern Asia, the balance maybe in favour of more land becoming habitable on balance....does anyone know or understand how to work this out?

UPDATE - Thanks for all the comments and insights. A good friend of mine who is an eminent geographer kindly pointed out that rising sea levels will put paid to any land gains as a whole and that the Southern Oceans are of little consolation to people in the southern hemisphere. So that is me put straight. His eminent blog is here.

Sunday Business Paper Review

Ten interesting stories and comment from the days business pages:

Banking Ego Madness - RBS is so desperate to stop Barclays it will make an expensive hostile bid.

More consolidation - this time it is Grant Thornton in the accounting sector.

MP's slam decision on BAE probe - will this messy political scandal affect the UK's reputation internationally? (err. ..yes)

Troubles still at Sports Direct - the lesson in how not to float and impress the City continues.

ITV's independence - compromised by Sky deal. this will have some long-term repercussions.

Spoiling for Money - on the day the Sunday Times posts the Rich List, the Guardian has a spoiler article which is quite funny, apparently there are lots of jealous people!

Postal Union and Labour square off - expect strikes by the summer...

More Billionaires to buy into football - but they are not interested in mighty Leeds United?!?

Trade war over Biofuels - When will this madness stop, biofuels are more polluting than oil!

Had a nice day in the sun...

back tomorrow!

In defence of Corporate Pedantism

I have seen several articles in the MSM recently bemoaning the state of our customer service culture. A good example of this is Andrew O'Hagan in the Telegraph this week.

Then yesterday Gwyneth Dunwoody and the Parliamentary Select Committee had a huge dig at Ryaniar for refusing to come and sit before them. Admittedly, not appearing before Parliament when requested is not really an adequate response, but I was pleased with Ryanair's answer, excerpt below:

Ryanair was unrepentant about missing the hearing, saying in a statement that it 'had far better things to do than waste time at a House of Commons Committee'.

"(The committee) is itself wasting time talking about passengers attitudes to air travel at a time when Gordon Brown is busy stealing an additional £1 billion from UK passengers and visitors this year."

Not only is Ryanair right to criticise the Government for its 'non' Green Stealth tax, it also refers to a wider malaise.

People hate the poor service they get from alot of suppliers these days. Companies like Ryanair and British Midland are driven by the market to offer amazingly low prices. In fact much lower than even the public can believe; flights for a £1!

To do this, they have to find other ways of making money, so they impose stealth duties and onerous conditions on you if you make mistakes or do not fully co-operate. But they do this because people want low prices. If you want to pay more and get better service, fly with British Airways or Virgin Atlantic.

This applies equally to many other areas of our economy. Bank charges are all the rage and yes they appear to be too much and not linked to cost; however we also have free banking for current accounts, almost uniquely in the world. Cracking down on bank charges will just end the era of free banking.

In summary, articles like Andrew O'Hagan's are just plain ignorant. If you want first class service pay for it, if you want cheap then accept the conditions that it come with that.

"We are all chavs now"

This is my prediction for what the CEO of Primark will say when he announces the next set of results, after their new Oxford Street raked in the customers this past quarter.

Brown poor at maths, shock

You could not make it up; but it is not very funny really is it?!

At least it goes some way to explaining his love of Keynesian economics over monetarist economics. Keynes is political and you can read his books without any understanding of maths; monetarists less so.

'The' Places to be seen

struggling for blog time at the moment, trying my best to avoid foreign postings again. In the meantime, these are my 4 favourite recent reads:

Raedwald on 419 success (must push these up my to do list).

The Reactionary Snob on quality telly.

A surreal take on the blogosphere with Electro-Kevin at Mutley's pound.

..and a very grown up and thoughtful piece about radical Islam from Westminster Wisdom.

Sunday Business Paper Review 22/4

The ten most newsworthy stories in the Sunday business pages today:

The $2 Pound is here to stay - a useful analysis of what are inherently unpredictable currency markets.

La Défense is scared of Segolene Royal in the French Election - we find out later today their influence.

No recession after all - According to the Item club corporate profits will save us (no I don't get the logic either!)

Ex-Lastminute director want so to make moving home easier - perhaps he will lend us all the deposits?

Business searches for recruits in second life - now this story is just bizarre, people clearly don't look at the real second life stats for users!

Arsenal next on the block for US investors - something for Newmania to wring his hands about.

Tesco's to go upmarket - could be a big threat to John Lewis.

Google cleaning up the Internet - The company certainly seems to be making all the right moves; so was yahoo 2 years ago though...

Green Aeroplanes - some sane thinking on climate change action.

some good sharetips...

Yates to the rescue?

So at last Yates has handed in his report. I am sure there will be much comment elsewhere, but this could be just what the Tories need.

Blair can't resign now with this hanging over him. So he is here for a little while yet. I don't think this is very good news for the country as a whole which has suffered badly with a lame duck Prime Minister.

However it is good news for the Tories. Sleaze will stick this time and this is a very serious accusation. It won't do Brown any good and will prove a real hindrance to the Labour chances in the the crucial elections this year.

As I have said before however, it won't be good news in the long-run; the Westminster set will use this as an excuse to end private fund-raising and to vote themselves luxury lives at taxpayer's expense.

We live in interesting times though, politically speaking.

$2 = £1 - so why is this?

I saw the post at Iain Dale's earlier and the comments , many of which suggested he does not know what he is talking about. All Iain said was that it seemed odd to have such a high exchange rate. He is right to say this. There are many factors which influence a floating currency.

Now that we do have a floating currency, although it cannot be 'controlled' as the Left would like, it becomes instead a good bell weather. Our currency is strong because the Dollar is so weak and our interest rates are relatively high. Our high interest rates are caused in part by government over-expenditure.

Also as the graph above shows, we would do well to remember that the Pound is a petro-currency. In fact it is at the peak of this cycle as the graph shows. Having a petro- currency will always be bad for inflation and. This will force high interest rates and so 'humble' manufacturing.

People who accuse Thatcher of destroying our manufacturing base would do well to examine the chart above and see how closely it matches the de-industrialisation.

I think overall that this is no bad thing, it is just part of our economic development. Perhaps as our Petro-Pound fades in the next 2 decades our manufacturing base will grow again?

P.S. On the other big story of the day, I have said rates will hit 6% this year, can't see anything that makes me change my mind.

Who is David Miliband?

I ask this as there does seem to be alot about him in the news. I know about as much about him though as I do about Kate Middleton.

There is his Miliblog and his No10 official history. Also I have read a few articles of the will-he-won't-he style in the Guardian opinion section and in the Speccie, for examples.

On policies such as economic there are his published Environmental views. These are an even madder set of ideas than Cameron has come up with!

I know nothing about him other than he is young, never had a real job, has only been in his job for 6 years and not all of them at senior level. I don't know what he would do in a war crisis, economic downturn, how he will sort the PFI mess and Pensions mess.

Maybe that is the point of a political leadership bid. However, I find it bewildering that we could possibly end up with him with him as PM in a few weeks. Give me even Gordon Brown over that (saying this only as I know he will be trounced in his first election) . Even as a Tory, look what happened last time this type of choise was made, John Major and his sorry excuse for a Government.

Maybe I am wrong, does anyone know who David Miliband is?

Sunday Business Paper Review - 15/4

Slow news weekend:

Barclay's may not get hold of ABN after all - doubt it, seemed like a done deal. The new buyer would have to really overpay.

But RBS may be that company - Fred Goodwin always like a nice game.

Clothes for Dogs - Primark has a rival...

Buy-to-Let will be the first to suffer in housing crash - but when will it start?

£7 flights to US won't happen - yup, can't see the business plan here MO'L.

Poker firms to sue UK Government over new laws - more suffering for blessed Jowell.

EU votes to cap Mobile charges - pure madness, shows total lack of market understanding by the EU. Phone companies will just charge more for other services.

We live in an economic golden age - yes, but we are financially screwing our kids, so nothing to feel happy about.

..but not if you have a small business - wait till the tax bills come in too!

Civil service to have a more diverse recruitment policy - sigh...

Back with next week's news.

Spring = Summer Meme

With an nice early spring today and a great tip for the Grand National via text (Hedgehunter, clearly sent by a rocket scientist), I am in a good mood. Summer is a nice time and thanks to global warming will get even better in Blighty for the rest of my life.

So here are the 3 things I look most forward to in Summer:

4 - People - I love the way the summer improves everybody in our country, they dress down, have a happier mood and overall it is a more relaxed place than the cold, defensive winter months.

2 - Pimms & Lemonade in the garden - How relaxing is this, little slicker can play with the dog whilst I relax for a change. Just need to get the wireless set-up for the laptop outside and all will be perfect.

3 - Schools out - yup, sad old me, 20 mins off my commute with no school runs and empty (albeit hot trains). A real treat for 2 months.

So, Raedwald, Welshcakes and Ian, what are your favourite summer?

(PS Mrs Slicker I am very aware that this summer we are looking forward to have another baby most of all.)

Stumbling and Mumbling

Chris Dillow has an excellent post today on the 'news' that house prices are expensive for 'key workers'.

I can't find much to add to it, except to point out that it assumes that key workers marry each other too. They multiply up the numbers for couples as double the single figure.

Do Doctors, nurses and teachers all have to marry one another? IS this what real socialism is all about?

Indian Bureaucrats vs UK Bureaucrats

The Beeb writes with rage today about this story in India. To summarize, Indian female civil servants are to be asked about when they were last pregnant and details of their menstrual cycles.

Notwithstanding that to question a woman on this is to incite hate and revenge on all men, I am at a loss as to why this information is needed.

But then we know that Governments know no bounds when it comes to seeking out information for their own nefarious purposes. Perhaps India aspires to our own high standards, where we don't even need to ask such questions anymore; we just collect DNA samples straight from source.

B2B

I had a nice Easter break and work was a real drag to go back to today; but so be it for the servants of mammon.

Meanwhile, you may remember 7 or 8 years ago the dot com boom. I was thinking about this over the weekend in relation to the Climate Change Agenda that is growing now; there are many similarities between the phenomena. Overall perhaps now is the right point in the cycle to go green and start-up a company or enterprise involved in this area. More thinking required on my part here.

Anyway, back in the Dot Com era there were all sorts of over-used phrases that were used to hide the simple and ill-thought out economics behind the start-ups. 2 of my favourites were ' business to business (b2b) for service companies and Business to Consumer for retail companies.

These were parodied in 2001 when the bubble burst, into 'back to banking' and 'back to consulting.' For all those bright young things who had 'lived the dream.' Or not.

In my musings I thought up a new version for the modern age of today, that is after the Easter Weekend.

Back to Blogging.

Easter Business Round up

Happy Easter all. Hope that you are enjoying the day and not just devising to many different ways of killing the in-laws.

Anyway, for those who just have to escape, here is a round up of the top business headlines from the media for this weekend:

An excellent start here from the Telegraph - this story about the insanity of the £20 billion rail subsidies is a cracker.

The irrational exuberance of the market is driven by Merger and Acquisition rumours alone - according to the Telegraph. I have some sympathy with this as underlying macroeconomic trends are so weak.

Private Equity bid for Sainsbury's on hold - not so surprising, where is the quick return in a well run business?

Ethnic workers earn more in the public sector - A fine combination of political correctness at its best.

Pensions - a nice summary of future issues by The Observer.

Revealed: How Gordon Brown has cost you £100,000 - great headline in the Indy.

More M&A activity - get your share portfolio's out, more possible activity in the airline sector.

The Indy explains why rates were held at 5.5% this month - not a bad summary.

Private Healthcare in crisis? - Bupa to sell its hospitals...

ITV complains at BBC mobile offering - Yet again, the public subsidy broadcaster is try to control a nascent market.

That's all folks.

Election Manifesto's; what is really important?

Both Labour and the Lib Dems have launched their English Election Manifesto's this past week for the local elections. Labour and Lib Dem both have crime and ways to tackle it as the central policy.

But I wonder is this right? Is crime really the top focus of what people vote for in these local elections. I guess we will find out in a month, but I have my doubts and think that this is a very negative campaign strategy.

The LD's see being tough on crime as a way to harden their wishy washy image; but will that wash with voters?

Labour see crime as one of the few areas where they have had success, albeit limited, at a local level.

The Tories come out with their policies later this week, but have already made the environment and crime top priorities.

Yet to me, the key issues, outside of Scotland, are local finance, education, waste removal, planning and transport. Crime come sway down and i don't even live in that nice an area!

What do you think? What would positive campaigns have been based upon?

Post Office update - part Grrr...

In my long running campaign to get this noticed, I have neglected to read the output form Government Ministers' for a couple of weeks.

However, now as we expected the Government has delayed the publication of its own consultation (here).

The Post Office consultation was commenced in December and was due to finish in March. In fact it did, on 8 March 2007.

What is so predictable is that the outcome of this consultation has magically been delayed until mid-May 2007. Nicely timed to be after the local elections.


The government is determined not to make the closure of local services a local election issue. What a nice honest bunch of people they are!

I am not in principle against closing loss making Post Offices the way, however the Government have interfered in this market for so long that it has become completely destabilised and has lost its core business model. Government withdrawal of benefits paid through post offices is a typical example of this.

However, what makes me angry is that this mes is a key political issue and the problems are politically caused; so of course the Government wants to avoid them becoming an election issue.

Grrr....

Psychometric testing

When of the key changes to the City job market in recent years is the advent of psychometric testing. Many companies use it as part of the assessment of any new candidate.

Thanks to the wonders of the interweb you can even do some of your own for free, should you be so inclined; here are some links to these kinds of tests.

In the distant past I had to do one of these things and insisted to the agent that I receive the same results as the company (you should always do this, as they have to release this info).

What I like though about the whole process is the double-think that is employed in the analysis. In fact it is a first cousin of the kind of double-think employed in politics and the media village. positives are spun as negatives and exaggerations. I have seen this in the results I have had shown to me in the recent past. Here are some of my favourite examples:

Entrepreneurial and focused = A ego-centric loose cannon

Task-oriented team player = Does as told and won't make trouble

Lateral thinker = Lazy and tries to get other to do their work

Creative = Always late and takes ages to complete any assignment

Assertive leader = Difficult to manage as a deputy


So what do you think; there must be plenty more ways of describing personalities this way...any more ideas?

April 1st Sunday Business Round-Up

Quite a quiet week this week, the markets have recovered from what could/should have been the beginning of a recession. Instead the credit binge looks set to continue a while yet. Here are 10 interesting stories:

French House price crash to follow USA - Spain vulnerable too, Britain will be someday too, we just have no idea when..

Whitbread finally up for the chop? - A low share price and lots of Private Equity money may mean that Alan Parker (and the shareholders) get a good offer soon.

Interest rates to rise - According to The Times, I can see this and another 2 rises yet. the government needs to slow borrowing urgently; so go on holiday abroad this year, the £ is at a 20-year high!

There's money in Green - Even capitalists and see the money in going green these days; it must be here to stay.

Blogs worth millions - yes, your blog could be turned into a cash fortune by new US advertising software.

New runway for Heathrow - I want this, but how can any 'green' government approve this in today's environment?

BA bidding for Iberia? - With open Skies now signed there will be lots of change in the Airline sector in the UK. Investors often make good returns when there is lots of M&A activity in a sector...

Gambling on the buffers - A thoughtful piece from The Observer on what the impacts are on the complete failure of the Government's proposed gambling policy. My two pennies, better for the UK firms but denies us valuable foreign investment.

How far can Outsourcing go? - A typically lefty view, with a scared journalist writing the end is nigh, but some detail is worth noting. Particularly the slowing of the outsourcing trend in some areas.

Battle for Bridgewell - One of the worst examples of UK City broking is currently up for sale after a truly monumental failure. This is an overview, but really, I am at a loss as to why anyone would be interested in these people.


See you at the same time next week.

Yesterday's News Tomorrow

I have been beaten to my post on Charles Clarke's RTS Speech by both Ellee and Nick Robinson; however, I was at least there so will blog my view of events as a hopefull useful addition.

Firstly, I did nothing to embarrass my self or any of the other people there. it was packed with media luvvies as you would expect; but there were at least some interesting and influential people in the audience who asked some good questions.

Overall, Clarke is a man if quite impressive intellect. of course his political views and conclusions are not my cup of tea; but his grasp of the subject and ability to answer long questions in detail is a difficult task that he did well. The waspish Alistair Stewart as host was a less useful interlocutor and he revealed at the beginning what old chums they were from 1960's labour politics.

Anyhow, Clarke's main contention was that the media has grown all powerful. he admits that Blair met with his team after John Smith's death and stated he would become leader of the party and the country by 'using' the media. Clarke is wounded by the 'damage; the media did to his beloved Neil Kinnock (blimey!). He praised Blair and his gruesome twosome for controlling the media.

Of course, not that the media have found out the New Labour control tactics, Clarke does not like it any more and instead asks for more regulation and a change in the press. He admits Labour has to change, but it is more the media's fault.

To me this just sounded like sour grapes; not an unsurprising conclusion about recent speeches from Clarke.

Two points he made though did stick;

1 - the 24 hr news agenda means that Sunday Programmes and the like are always just fishing for soundbites and this destroys their credibility and purpose. This is something I agree with and the pathetic attempts by some of the producers present (none over age 19) to defend this just helped Clarke's case here.

2 - He said history was littered with front running politicians who the media have slayed at the last hurdle, most recently he cited David Davis. He was very keen on Milliband standing or perhaps even himself and fancied someone would stop Broon.

We can but hope he is correct.

Light blogging, snowed at work

when is tax freedom day again...?

Slicker is going to the RTS event with Charles Clarke tomorrow; New Labour and the Media 10 years on.

Ideas for suitably inflammatory questions please.

CC pushed a lady over in front of me at Blackfriars station earlier this year, so I want to extract some humiliating revenge...

Gordon's impact on your property choices

I like this piece from the propertyfinder blog, It shows a great example of a Labour stealth tax.

You can see so clearly the effect of tax since 1993 to the present day. It is also a great example of the effect Brown has produced by not keeping taxes up with rises in prices; The same will apply to your wage thresholds and a myriad of other things Gordon has tinkered (or not!) with.

Back under a Conservative government, the tax was a small element of the cots of moving. It it had kept its relationship in the same way today it would only cost £5000 to move instead of nearly £10,000.

As I live in London, these numbers are a vast under-estimate anyway for the region, as many properties cost over the £250,000 mark and then the 3% stamp duty kicks in which really bites.

What a deceptive way to raid us for failed NHS projects and subsidies to French farmers....

Sunday Business Review - 24/3/07

A linkfest to the 10 most interesting Sunday Business stories in UK papers:

BP to stay in Russian investments - John Browne thinks a chat with Putin is enough. I am not sure Browne's successor will be pleased with such a high risk strategy.

UK business tries to get in on Nuclear Act - A long way to go to match their state-owned EU competition though.

A new world of Open Skies - I was as wrong as always, still amazed that this was signed!

Sub-Prime mortgage fallout out bites UK - still think House prices are going to keep going up?

A good Budget for poor people - from the Guardian Media Group ( now part owned by a PE house!)

Budget a miss - from the Torygraph.

Media Giants start to fight Google - the Times has a positive view of NewsCorp's strategy, as you would expect.

Satellite's still a dog investment - With such high capital requirements, they won't be relocating to the UK anyway after Broon's budget....

The Indy still goes on about green business - An interesting read as it shows why the lack of market forces will stop any major changes to our energy supply. Yet their solution is to regulate, not to marketise?

Another interest rate rise due? - first of several I think , all the models have oil falling in price and so weakening inflationary forces. But if this does not happen, then rises are guaranteed.

Challenge to DC

So at the end of the week it is time to take a step back and consider the future.

Broon has not done so well out of his budget that it is going to secure his premiership. I wonder what the next set of polls will reveal as to his popularity.

However a much worse week for the Tories. Out thought on the budget and shown one more that Labour are masters at stealing their policies.

One thing sticks out to me though. George Osborne has had his day as shadow chancellor. To be fair Broon is a formidable opponent with unprecedented experience; but Osborne has had no radical answers to offer when the country is crying out for it.

I would like to see William Hague appointed as shadow chancellor when the re-shuffle takes place. The reason this is a test for Cameron though is that it will be hard for him to dislodge one of his inner coterie. He needs though to think through the best team to carry the Tories forward in what could still be, even only remotely, an election year.

Tough choices to make, but I don;t think it has worked for Blair in terms of delivery surrounding himself only with his favourites; it gives a government too much inertia.

Budget thoughts...

It's late, been working all day since sunrise and more tomorrow so only a few snippets. I see Dale has a good view on the budget and plenty of stuff. More on Doughty Street too which I have on at the moment. Chris Dillow makes some good points, as ever does Wat Tyler.

So my few musings...

1 - In the small part of the speech that I heard today Brown said that this budget was broadly fiscally neutral. So in English that means taxes have gone up a bit overall.

2 - So clearly, all this nonsense about tax cuts is just that. It is noticeable too that some of the proposed 'cuts' or changes are for 2009 or even 2010. Beyond the life of this parliament and hopefully his government. This really is disingenuous politics of the first order.

3 - I am worried though if the media let Broon get away with this sort of lying rubbish (and robbing the poor too!) then the Tories are in for a tough time. Serves them right for being so weak-kneed on tax cuts themselves.

4 - The spending taps to the NHS and Education are still on. This worries me as it is not investment. All the money goes on salaries, pensions and perhaps some failed IT projects. This is money thrown away, all the while the public debt of the country is rising and not being paid off. A sensible government would have a huge surplus now to help come with the coming downturn.

5 - Finally, it is clear to most economists, the bond markets and equity buyers that the world economy, led by the US is going to slow. But not the UK according to magic Gordon?

Shot across the bows of Broon

All over the financial pages the last 2 days has been the proposed merger between Barclay's and ABN Amro.



The latest news suggest that Barclay's is making some serious 'concessions' to get the deal done. However, as usual the Beeb and financial press are missing the obvious. Of course Barclay's may want to move its HQ to Amsterdam to secure the deal. However, you may note that it will also escape the new Broon tax regime and put some distance between itself and the FSA.

Perhaps our often crowed about dominance of the European financial markets is a little weaker than we think. Only recently HSBC threatened to move back to Hong Kong because of high taxes too.

Budget preview

Well I know the budget is only on Wednesday, but I thought it may be a discussion worth having to see what are the treats that Gordon Brown has in store for us tax payers.

At times such as this we need to turn to tax accountants and economists, who have so much skin in the game for a decent look at the prospects for the budget given current economic conditions.

I start with the E&Y view, two horrid ideas here. One is actually extending the reach of Inheritance tax (rather counter to the views of Nick Drew). This is as always a nice socialist and regressive tax.

The second key idea is a new 'planning gain' tax. This is a tax on property where the planing permission has been changed. As such it is a tax on future development. This will utterly stymie the small property developers in favour of large ones. it is also an extra tax as large developers already sign bribes in the form of section 106 (e.g. you can build houses but must pay for a bypass too etc.)

KPMG's view on the state of the economy is as follows:

"There will be questions about the next cycle however. Since the early 2000s, public spending has risen at a much faster rate than the economy as a whole. But without higher taxes, this leeway has been used up, particularly now that public debt has risen to within a few percentage points of its 40 percent of GDP ceiling.

Consequently total public spending growth is slated to slow sharply over the next four years, to below the rate of growth of the economy. Education is expected to be a priority although we will probably have to wait for the Comprehensive Spending Review in the summer for full details of the allocations to health, alleviation of child poverty, etc.

Even this projected squeeze on spending still leaves the public finances looking tight and although there is no immediate need to raise taxes, equally there is no scope to cut them."

PWC have a great predictions website, two of their highlights are the possibility of further green taxes on cars and new taxes for carbon consumption. The Chancellor knows a helpful bandwagon when he sees on.

Finally, Deloitte's Roger Bootle is quite scathing about the state of the economy. he is brave enough to state that the real GDP deficit is more like 90% rather than the 37% the Chancellor fictitiously maintains and also notes taxes need to rise by £10 billion.

So what do you think? My prediction is for more stealth taxes as the Chancellor needs a war chest. He can't go and become PM without any money for baubles to offer. So he will store them up now and try to hide behind all the other mess that Blair and crew are creating.

Mostly, we will be poorer by Friday.

Sunday Business Round Up 18/3/07

The ten best stories rounded up from the Sunday Business Sections:

Barclays/ABN in merger talks - now this would be a mega-deal, nearly big enough to sate Bob Diamond's mega-ego.

Brown to offer benign budget - A nice thought and a considered piece, but I doubt it...

Open skies agreement to be stymied - mutatis mutendes.

Irwin Stelzer hates Greens - Well he should tell his friend Mr Broon in stronger terms then.

Brown to end workers rights - eh? Don't believe everything you read.

Pensions scandal shames Brown - even The Observer can see this for the disgrace that it is.

Sainsbury's move to towards sale to Private Equity inches on - It is not a business round up without a hat-tip to Private Equity.

Online fraud grows - more care needed with your own finances?

The Pru still does nothing radical- just like last week.

Nuclear decommissioning tender - Interesting that all this work has to be done by foreign firms, some even state owned!

Happy reading.

A sane view on Global Warming

I saw this morning on the BBC, of all news outlets, a package describing some recent statements by UK based scientists. At last some people who can make sense of the furore of the last couple of weeks.

See here for the BBC report, but I have some of the key quotes below:

"I've no doubt that global warming is occurring, but we don't want to undermine that case by crying wolf." said Professor Collier of the Royal Meteorological Society

This view is shared by Professor Hardaker, the society's chief executive.

"Organisations have been guilty of overplaying the message," he says.

"There's no evidence to show we're all due for very short-term devastating impacts as a result of global warming; so I think these statements can be dangerous where you mix in the science with unscientific assumptions."

Professor Hardaker also believes that overblown statements play into the hands of those who say that scientists are wrong on climate change - that global warming is a myth.

"I think we do have to be careful as scientists not to overstate the case because it does damage the credibility of the many other things that we have greater certainty about," he said.

"We have to stick to what the science is telling us; and I don't think making that sound more sensational, or more sexy, because it gets us more newspaper columns, is the right thing for us to be doing.

"We have to let the science argument win out."

Loving American lawyers

I know this is a little late with a story, but it did make me laugh yesterday.

Viacom, an American media firm, has decided that it will sue Google and YouTube for £1 billion dollars.

Queue thoughts of Dr. Evil.

The bit that make me laugh is how they came to such a large and exact sum. In my mind I can see the lawyers sitting around and thinking of a stupidly bit number, one spits it out, another doubles it, another adds some zeroes and hey presto, $1 billion. Then they all sit back and dream about the fees....

Time called on the US Credit binge; UK to follow in 2007?

The FTSE fell again today, and is now down to 6000.7 and may well go below 6000 tomorrow which is a 10% drop in a couple of weeks.

What has caused this?

Well in the US, there is a fairly rapid bursting of a residential housing asset bubble. New builds are being cancelled and prices of property are down on average 10%. This has caused many of the lenders of sub-prime mortgages (i.e. high risk lending) to get into serious difficulty as people begin to default on their loans. They have done this as interest rates have gone up from 1% to 5% in the past few years. This is the real legacy of Alan Greenspan whose lustre may well fade now the chickens are coming home to roost.

This is a real problem because for the last few years US citizens have been financing credit card bills by withdrawing profits from the equity in their houses. So any large problems with the housing market will reduce consumer spending and bring on a mild recession at the very least.

As we all know, what happens in the US is often followed in the UK. Although we have not gone to the same excesses as in the US, we have some of the same symptoms. Rapidly rising house prices (although we have supply issues unlike the US, giving our prices better underlying reason to rise), huge credit card lending (over £1 trillion now) and rising interest rates. We have a high money supply though which means inflation is more of an issue here than in the US. Perhaps we will be saved the worst by the huge wave of immigration that is keeping wages low and house prices high?

We are likely here in the UK to have a housing dip and credit squeeze. This will slow down the economy more quickly than the treasury is predicting and cause finance issues for our high spending government. On the plus side, perhaps interest rates will not need to go beyond 6%.

We live in interesting economic times though; shame , I preferred the mill pond.

Thoughts on Enviroment Policies

There has been so much written and said about the environment in the last few weeks that I barely know where to start. I think first it is best to set out where I sit. The science to me is firmly on the side of man made global warming. I would love to believe the the great climate change swindle, but many of the arguments made in that have been disproved time and again (see realclimate.org for a fully scientific rebuttal). Perhaps the effects will not be as extreme as the likes of George Monbiot would like us to believe, but nonetheless we can all see the climate changing around us rapidly.So we must do something...

But tax is not the answer. Typically our ill-led and unambitious government (and opposition) can only think in one dimension. Tax.

This is not the solution at all, we need a far more market and globally based approach.
We need to finance and support new technologies and research (UK government research budgets have been falling in real terms for years) to find alternative fuels.
We need binding international agreements so that there is no incentive for businesses to practice 'carbon-avoidance.'
We need to follow the better, already tested, policy ideas such as those of Woking Borough Council, which has reduced its energy spend by 90%.

I know the wrong policies though, regressive and unilateral taxes on transport and consumers. These affect the poor the most and leave the rich to go about their chosen lifestyles. I am more or less ashamed of the Conservative policies announced this week, at least the Labour policies are less regressive.

Really if there is one thing emerging from the 'debates' this week, it is that there is already too much hot air in the UK; and this is definitely sharply on the rise.

Cash for Honours

My 2 pence on the likely outcomes from here on in:

1 - Charges will be brought against key Blair aides. More likely for perverting the course of justice than actually selling honours.

2- Aides, Levy, Blair all look rather bad and try to spin their way out of it. Watch some flack hit the Tories and other parties too. Blair does not have too many days left anyway (see clock in my side panel).

3- Brown 'assumes' power from Blair in May. Declares a fresh start with full state funding for political parties and a backing for a fully elected House of Lords.

4- Somehow, maybe thanks to media leaks, the trial never happens and all is forgotten by the end of the year.

Except of course, that we would no longer live in even a representative democracy. With state funded parties, why would the politicians' need to listen to voters?

Sunday Business Round Up 10/3/07

Shorter round up this week...some of the stories which grabbed me:

Morrison's logo to go - it was not very modern anyway. I like Morrsion's as it happens, their own brands are a mark above the competition as they own more of their suppliers.

The IoD urges tax cuts to Gordon Brown - tax cuts? talk about whistling into the wind...

Boots next for for KKR Private Equity - a deal that makes more sense as Boots has plenty of assets for the PE boys to leverage and has been under performing for years.

Agri-Business benefits from EU subsidies - yes of course you may say, but this was in The Observer!

London full of Billionaires - Perhaps Blighty is not so bad after all...

The future of the UK; housing crash? - we do tend to follow the US economy occasionally.

Music companies realise they can profit in the download world - not exactly quick on the uptake though.

Banks fight back on customer overdraft claims - between the banks and consumers the war will go on forever.

The Pru to nothing again - they may take some money back from their funds this time, but he 3rd strategic review in 3 years has the same old conclusion - do nothing.

SkyNet 5; The terminator

yes it is true, we named our new military satellite system after the one in the Terminator series.

If this is not macho enough for you, then weep at its telecoms power and awe. Well, OK not weep, but perhaps be impressed.

I am glad our armed forces will finally be able to use the modern communications systems that us mere office workers take for granted.

However, as ever the cost is astro-nomical; fitting given the subject here.

The PFI deal that it was bought under is a typically hideous beastie. 18 years of future costs and no fixed payments. Extra's added (to the tune of a few hundred million) in 2005 for a little up specking.

Finally, just to sweeten the deal the MoD threw in a few other contracts for radio's and systems.
All this is just yet another condemnation of the MoD's procurement department, surely one of the sectors in Whitehall needing the most urgent overhaul.

Investigation into Private Equity?

According to the BBC yes, but I notice the terms and conditions of the inquiry mean that there will be no actual result. This is a classic NuLab response to any issue of the day, just like John Reid earlier in the week; something must be seen to be done.

This is more important than anything actually being done. Which of course they can't do, as they don't have any answers.

Top Tory gone in race row

Mercer is sacked by Cameron; what was he thinking? Sad though that a person's job and career can go just on a rash decision, eh Alex?

IT Poor Results; The shape of things to come

I posted below about the revolution that is hitting our television industry. Today ITV have announced another poor set of results. ITV are still the largest advertising channel in the UK, but not for long. Google will overtake them in a year or so and as the multi-channel world of Digital television kicks in they will fall even further back.

The future will be subscription and new forms of payment, like ITVPlay and the other gameshows where you pay through calling in with little hope of winning a prize. It will be a very different world and I can't see how the likes of the BBC and ITV can remain in their current format's over the next 5 years.

Digital Telly; a nice denoument for the BBC

The end of the analogue signal is approaching. In the autumn of this year, the first switch off will occur.

This heralds a major change in the way we all get and view our television in future. The Government pursued this idea because it would free up the radio spectrum to be sold again and would leave Britain with an advanced DTT system. So all round a good idea, even if there are hitches in the shape of refusniks' and a lot of analogue TV's to be disposed of.

Hat Tip for Image; InformITV.com

Longer term however, there is a huge shift in the business model coming, to the detriment of the current advertising based model. With a multi-channel TV audience for all channels, the share of the larger channels will fall. So ITV, BBC and Channel 4 will all suffer. This means their advertising revenue will fall off. To help bolster this they will need more popular programmes; but this does not square with their current public service broadcasting obligations.

The Government is of a already retreating on this issue vis-a-vis C4 and ITV by reducing their costs. But for the BBC it is a different game; how can it justify its position as its market share falls?

I don't think it can, but I like the latest idea from John Whittingdale that in future all companies could bid for government funded public service broadcasting; thus removing the need for a BBC monopoly and licence fee.

A market for TV PSB is a much better idea than the current system; we still get the content and have to pay, but not to support the whole administrative monolith that is the BBC.

Sunday Business Round Up 4/3/07

A much better week this week than last, including the sight of Slicker eating his hat...

Firstly, an entertaining story in the Sunday Telegraph about the future of soft drinks. With all the flavours done, it seems gimmicks will be the new 'new.' Still sounds like fun. Better than the most dull story covered by most but with the Observer link here, about the SKY/Virgin TV boresville.

The main story of the week, the huge market fall (over 10% globally) is surprisingly covered only briefly, although best stories are in here and here. The Mail has a take on how to profit as a small investor in these times; no they don't mention buying a house!

The Sunday Telegraph also covers the credit card story, which continues to bubble away (yes, I know I 'owe' a post on this). This time is is Barclays looking to get out of its credit mess and further bad news for HSBC which is really in the mire in the US with bad mortgage loans (look out for the Woolwich in the UK to suffer the same fate as the year progresses?). The Times reports this story as HSBC writing off $11 billion in loans- that is more than the cost of the business they bought! The Observer has a slightly different take here, as you would expect.

Finally there are a few stories following up on last week's Private Equity binge - here in the Telegraph, a PE bid in The Times,

I always like to include at least one story on our increasing tax burden and its threat to our economic well being - here is one in The Times. Although the Observer has the opposite on how our film industries subsidies are under threat (if only!). The Indy has a nice angle on blaming the tax accountants for the world's woes; I have a tinge of sympathy with the argument here, but not a lot

Finally, the open skies talks I dissed last week have apparently made progress...or maybe not if BA has its way. I remain knife and fork at the ready.

Not big and not clever

So the news for the last day or two has had this story bubbling under the surface. Some Tourists have been kidnapped on the Ethiopia and Eritrean border.

Now the foreign office is mobilising to try and track them down and I guess negotiate for their release.


It is sad that this has happened to fellow citizens, but really, holidaying in a war zone? Do you think they managed to get any holiday insurance?

Is Disneyland or Magaluf really that bad an option in comparison?

Dead Cat Bounce

My last post reported the fall in the stock markets around the world that heralded the beginning of the end of the Bull market. Economic fundamentals are just too unbalanced for things to continue as they were.

Yet today, the markets are up a little, after 2 days of falls. Don't be fooled though as hedge funds and others need markets to move up and down to make their margins, one way bets are hard for them to manage.

So today sees some profit taking, but I still believe the bubble is burst. Let's hope it is a nice gentle ride down rather than a collapse...