What Happens When You Live To 98

Everyone forgets you, that's what - even if you had a bit of a name in your time.

Also on the noticeboard at the weekend was this sad offering:

(I feel they might have spared her the tack through the skull.)  I hadn't heard she'd died, and so rushed back to find an obituary or three.  But there were none to be had from google this side of the Times paywall.

So who was Jean Austin?  A fairly well-known philosophy don: OK, second-rate, and (if we're being honest) trading a bit off the name of her illustrious husband, J.L.Austin; Then again, he's all-but-forgotten, too - and he was a titan in his day.

It was said of Jean that in one epic year she got a First, married John, and had twins.   Otherwise, she plugged a variety of the post-Wittgenstein 'ordinary language philosophy' which helped elevate Oxford's standing to pre-eminence in the 50's and 60's, before US linguists and logicians started to become a dominant force in analytic philosophy.

John Austin was a phenomenon, even if thoroughly out of fashion today.  In his day he was up there with Strawson, Ryle and Ayer, with a distinct brand of his own, summed up in wittily-titled books like Sense and Sensibilia (Austin ... geddit?).  All preceded by a deeply impressive wartime career in intelligence.   Just as Cambridge specialised in traitors in the mid 1900's, as Mr R said in comments yesterday, Oxford has been quite the other way around.

Austin had been recruited to set up, and ended up heading, the "order of battle" section of what became SHAEF (the Supreme Headquarters of the Allied Expeditionary Force) under Eisenhower. The section was responsible for collecting and analysing information from a variety of sources, including the top-secret Enigma at Bletchley Park, but also through the developing art of aerial reconnaissance (which later became satellite imaging) and human intelligence from the resistance across Europe, in support of the war effort generally and to prepare for the D-Day landing. It is said that when the German army surrendered at Frankfurt, Austin was the only person amongst the Allies who knew where all of the German army was actually located

That passage is from an interesting philosophical book review of earlier this year, which goes on to look at Austin in the Ordinary Language Philosophy movement - and draws on analogies between linguistic reasoning and military intelligence.  For anyone even slightly interested, that is!  You can readily guess that I am.  (And if you are, you can even check out the 'philosophy' tag below ...)

ND

Preparing for the Worst

Back at Oxford this weekend, to be greeted with ...

Well, I suppose there's a Duty of Care, but - really?

At dinner I sat *this* close to Chris Patten.  Now, he really was in danger ...

ND

Weekend Challenge: Name Your New Discovery

Here's a great story from the Graun that confirms several aspects of my outlook on life, of which more below.  

An inhaler that protects the lungs against air pollution has been developed by scientists and could help the many millions of people affected by toxic air to avoid its worst effects. The inhaler delivers a molecule, first found in bacteria in the Egyptian desert, which stabilises water on the surface of the lung cells to form a protective layer. It is expected to be available as an inexpensive, over-the-counter product...based on a molecule called ectoine, discovered in the 1980s in a desert bacterium which uses the compound to conserve water in 60C heat. “It is quite an inert molecule that does one main thing, which is bind water, which stabilises cell membrane tissues against physical or chemical damage ... It supports the natural barrier.” When inhaled, this helps prevent the damage caused by air pollution particles that can lead to asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and lung cancer ... Ectoine does not interact with cell receptors, so it is classed as a medical device rather than a drug. This means large clinical trials are not required for official approval ... “It could potentially do so much more. It is actually quite exciting and there is clearly a lot more to come from this story.”

Neat, eh?  And echoes of penicillin: discovered decades before anyone figures out how to do something useful with it.  There's something wonderfully random about when discoveries are made and, in parallel, when actual inventions are perfected and realised.  It certainly doesn't always happen in a logical sequence of  search - discovery - deliberation - application - invention - product, as naive accounts sometimes suggest.  (The actual, functioning steam engine disproved the 'science' of the time.)  I always think television was an invention rather ahead of its time.  Then again, there are things that should have been invented already ... 

I reckon this marvellous ectoine thingy / discovery / application illustrates a number of maxims that I carry around with me:

• there's always more stuff out there than anyone realises; ('if in doubt, go short')
• technology solves problems (to give another example: geo-engineering is a whole lot better for tackling GW than banning travel or electricity or keeping warm in winter);
• the next generation always has more resources than its forefathers; (which is not the same as life necessarily getting better - our perennial C@W debate)
• there are sometimes step-change improvements that completely transform a situation - progress doesn't move in straight lines, it behaves more like the long-jump record (see also the 'phoenix phenomenon');
• the latency period for effectively harnessing something new can be surprisingly long (and I don't think we've done much more than scratch the surface as regards microprocessors / digitisation / www etc)  

So.  Weekend challenge - what urgently needs discovering / inventing?  My candidates:

• synthetic blood - this is so obvious and so slow in coming: I can scarcely believe it still hasn't happened
• corbynite, a mysterious substance that will finally account for the folly of socialism, in every sense of 'account for'

Your carefully devised inventions, dear readers ..?

ND

Hinkley: Summer Finished, Winter Starts Here

Returning home from a very damp Paris to an equally damp London to read all about Hinkley: what a ridiculous state of affairs.  Is there anything to add?

I have seen a couple of half-hearted attempts to praise May for this craven decision.  Nick Butler (*spits*) in the FT gives her a convoluted, obsequious and yet condescending grammar-school mark - “VG 8½ out of 10. A good start to the term. Keep it up”.

And an un-named Chinese official tells China Daily (hoho!): "May has managed a good deal – she has managed to satisfy her domestic critics, satisfy her own cautious nature, and keep the Chinese on side". 

Well there's a thing.

Except here's one domestic critic who ain't satisfied.  Obviously we are never going to see the full text of the contract & related agreements, but (as with Cameron's lame Brexit 'negotiation') with the right creative approach there was a lot that could have been done - but not in seven weeks of cloistered, introspective worrying.

She really is no sort of negotiator, is she?  As well as being thick.

ND

Will anything, ever, make Nick Drew Vote UKIP?

OK, so UKIP are not in a very good state at the moment. As I wrote here a week or two ago, they are desperately in need of not just a new leader but a new brand and purpose too.


So it is no very auspicious to be cheering for them.


However, according to ITV, Hinkley is going ahead.


Clearly, PM May got a good hiding in Beijing and also by the French, being told all sorts of horrors if we did not commit - i.e. no investment and BREXIT impasse respectively.


But, it is , quite clearly lunacy, the most expensive white elephant since the NHS single IT system was conceived, in fact it will be worse.


All as renewables and battery storage, not to mention Fracking, have completely overtaken the need for nuclear power in its current form.


Let's face it, looking across at Flamanville we know the project does not even work and the technology is still unproven.


Despite all that PM May is going to wave it through. So, to our own Mr. Drew, how does that sit with you!

is Hillary all better now?

Yesterday the global markets lost nearly 2% on fears that the US candidate Hillary Clinton had stumbled and was a bit ill.


Today the indexes have recovered.


It must have been a very nice get well soon card.


I do wonder about the autumn in the markets this year though, the ultra-low volatility has gone on most of this year at an unprecedented level...it can't last. Will it end with a bang?

Fat & Lazy? Fox May Be Right

I have very little time for Liam Fox ("by their acolytes shall ye know them") but even a stopped clock can be fleetingly right, and this time I think he has a point.

Britain is "too lazy and too fat" with businessmen preferring "golf on a Friday afternoon" to trying to boost the country's prosperity, Liam Fox has said.

My early business experiences were in oil companies, which are no paragons, but haven't been brought up to believe the world owes them a living.  So it came as a shock, when I started doing business with the big heavy industrials in the north-east and north-west, to find them operating under the guiding principle: "why do a hard day's work when you can go lobbying instead?"

Seeing as it is now defunct - hardly a coincidence - I can finger ICI as the worst I encountered.  Any time they could bend the ear of the man from the government they would be letting it be understood how many jobs were for the axe if this or the other little tax-break, blind-eye treatment or other featherbedding wasn't continued.  Sometimes they'd even invent a new kind of 'special case' for favourable consideration.  When the man from the HSE or the Alkali Inspectorate etc came calling (and by heaven, they had good enough reason to poke their noses in: what went up the stack of ICI's old Wilton power station was outrageous) they'd get the same story: a gentle cough and "5,000 jobs" would be mentioned; and he'd go away sadder and wiser.

My firm was new on the patch.  When we had an environmental problem we quickly hatched a solution, but received a delegation from the local worthies.  If folks were to start fixing problems, they said - well, where would it all end?

This is only part of the story, of course, because Britain has many business success-stories of which we may rightly be proud.  But those that Fox is fingering need to shape up.

ND

PS, I see Fraser Nelson has even more to say on the subject in the Speccie 

Grammar Schools - why now?

It is weird that Prime Minister May has kicked off with Grammar schools as her first non-Brexit policy.


Hinkley and Heathrow are there (although both very hard).


Education has been slowly improving and there is already as dispute with the Doctors so winding up teachers is going to double trouble.


And for what? Grammar certainly helps a few but it also causes problems too as the other schools are filled with lower attainment kids. What about streaming in schools as a non-selective way of doing it?


Grammars' are not in the Manifesto from the last election, so the House of Lords will vote it down anyway.


It must be something she has held dear to her for life which she now wants to offer to all; a crusade if you like. Sadly it comes too with a notion of 100% religious schools which I am dead against as these are divisive to the country and we have enough religion as it is, particularly as we will have hard line Muslim schools now allowed - just what the Country needs.


I guess it will be wildly popular mind, so perhaps that is the simple answer after all.

Getting Out onto the Shop Floor

Mr Q's post yesterday on the travails of Sports Direct, and Jan's comment on companies "where the top brass never really know what's going on beneath them" strike a chord.

The issue of management never visiting the shop-floor is a mystery to me - the preserve of lazy gits, however sharp they may be on some aspects of the business.  My father was in marketing for a multi-national manufacturer: head office through-and-through, but he always insisted on his sales force becoming familiar with the widely-flung production sites - which he himself visited frequently - and I was brought up to believe this was the obvious thing to do.  Just an extension of an officer's duty, army style, which both he and I were in our times: really basic stuff.  But done in the right spirit, it's no chore.  It's actually 100% self-interested!  - an education and a boon to all concerned.  As perhaps Mr Ashley now recognizes.

I was always head-office, too, in various energy co's, and practised the same philosophy, sometimes to the amazement of my nicely-dressed, London-bound staff who had sort-of viewed the plant as dirty and noisy and, well, beneath their dignity but actually it is amazing [see this little tale - who couldn't be impressed by that sort of kit?], as they rapidly discovered.  Getting to grips with it in the flesh  -  the steel'n'concrete, and the operatives & stroppy plant management  -  paid massive dividends.

[Not least  -  when I was with oil companies  -  the trips out to the North Sea platforms (in the grand days before Piper Alpha put paid to non-essential trips offshore), which were often a serious adventure; and all came my way because I took the ops side seriously, even if it was technically 'none of my business'.]

The denizens of the factory floor don't like 'inspections' from on high, or pure dilettante head-office tourism.  But take a genuine interest, and they are only too keen to (a) show off what they've got & what they can do, and (b) spill the gen.  Who wouldn't want to be given that kind of first-hand low-down?

Then when the chips are down and the custard has hit the fan, you can just pick up the phone and it's old friends just sorting things out together (the occasional crate of whisky often helps, too).  Nothing but contempt for 'management' who don't know what's oop at 'mill.

ND

UnSporting Direct

I once worked for Sports Direct. But by accident. I was a senior manager in another clothing company that had got into trouble. Mr Ashley knew the owners and made them an ungenerous deal that they eventually accepted. 
He took over the chain. Took the leases of the best ones that were then made into Sports Direct stores, and there was deal where the rest went back to the original owners. 
But he kept the branded labels. Which is what he really wanted all along. All in all, a good bit of business on his part. 

The SD team thought very, very little of us. They were dismissive of everything. From warehousing to distribution to employment. And, mostly, with good cause. Because whatever else Sports Direct may be, it is a slick operation. Very organised. Very focused. Very well run.
They had turnaround times half of ours. Superior inventory systems and logistics. They had and have plenty of resources and plenty of cash. According to the board of the company I worked for Mike Ashley was one of the nicest guys you could ever meet. And they said that about him in a very genuine way. They liked him.

I only worked with them for about a year. And mostly indirectly. Just helping out with the transfers of sites and stocks etc. But, in my opinion, I'd say they were the lousiest company I've ever worked for. 
Not because they were ungenerous. My company was ungenerous.  Not because they were tough, which they were. Most retail companies are tough. But because they were a nasty company.
An unpleasant bunch. Coming from the top was a terrible attitude of my way/high way.
All the time about all things. And with that winners arrogance too A slightly bullying undercurrent. Something that often occurs if the top tier is of an uncompromising, do it or you're out attitude. No compassion. No compromise. No choice.
 I suspected, that this came from the tier of management just below the leader. The people who report to the boss. And know what he likes to hear and doesn't like to hear. What he wants done and what he doesn't want to occur. And those people translated the wishes that eventually caused the rather ugly attitude to workers that is being discussed in the media now.

I would not be in the least surprised if Ashley genuinely didn't know of much of what has been revealed. Its a common occurrence in a company with a powerful boss. A dictatorship mentality eventually forms. The power below the throne fears rivals and needs to keep itself popular and secure. The best way is to hit targets, lower costs, increase profits and eliminate problems.

There was a report about Tesco{might not have been them, but I think it was. let's say it was}  a long while back. It emerged that the night shelf stacking staff were not permitted to talk to each other. Just a 10 minute break to have a coffee and a pee. 
This shocked Tesco, who, despite their 1990's greedy-grabby reputation, are generally well thought of by their employees. It was just a manager misunderstanding and seeking to improve performance. Other managers had heard about the results and copied the idea. And it spread. It was never Tesco policy that people be silent. And they ended it as soon as they were aware.

Sports Direct is a bit of a bogey company at the moment.  Zero hour contracts mainly the reason. SD have announced they will end them for their directly employed people and put them on a 12 hour contract. That's 18,000 workers off of zero hour contracts.

Still sounds bad. But it is a big change. A lot more rights with a part-time contract. Especially holiday pay. And, these people are working what amounts to full time anyway. The contract is zero. The actual hours are more like 30 to 40. Some 70% of all UK zero hour contact workers surveyed said they had as many hours as they wanted. Only 16% wanted more. And among those 16% will be a high percentage who the employer feels aren't up to it. So they are standby workers. With their phone numbers locked away in the Break Glass In Emergency cabinet.
Even the Unite rep on the TV, as he complained about working there never knowing how many hours a week he could plan for, said he had been there for three years, working 40 hours a week!
Zero hour contracts are a mechanism to get around the very onerous costs of employment, especially hiring and firing and redundancy. Zero hours followed the minimum wage legislation as the Government was well aware.

It isn't Sport's Direct fault they had tens of thousands of workers on these contracts. It is the fault of government. The government, Tory and Labour, should long, long ago have insisted that zero hour contracts were unlawful. Or could only exist short term. Or the rights were the same as employed.
Instead, they did very little indeed. 
Mr Ashley did well to control himself at the select committee. he must have been very tempted when asked if he thought zero hours were appalling, to reply it was not up to him to comment on the government's employment laws. and when question what was he going to do about it, he might have replied "what are YOU going to do about it?"
Sports Direct must have worked out they will probably benefit from having a more secure contracts system. Costs go up. but so does loyalty. Its far easier to retain people on a contract, even for 4 hours, than it is on a zero.

However, it IS the fault of Sports Direct that they let other aspects of their employment become so bad. 
It is the fault of SD that they never felt the need to address their employment practices properly until a critical situation, minimum wage not being paid, occurred. And it occurred through error, not malice. Management are salaried and are expected to stay behind and work late or deal with a problem. Sometimes they simply expected their wage employees to do the same.

Sports direct is a very big firm and will manage these changes well. it will probably in the long run, be strengthened by them. The unwelcome glare of the media spotlight will make it a little more worker friendly in the future.

And, it is well worth pointing out, that the original company that I worked for, a much nicer company to work for, which was taken over by Sports Direct, and then split off  from them again, went bankrupt.
It was bought out of administration by the original owners, and flailed about for another few years before going bust a final time and disappearing forever with the loss of 1,000 jobs.

Many of those 1,000 odd workers would have preferred their same job on a zero hour contact, to redundancy on a guaranteed 40 hour one.

Buyer's Market - Get Stuck In

Open those valves

There is a pronounced and timely surplus of natural gas right now, with no obvious end in sight.  With even Gazprom having run up the white flag on oil-price indexation, now is an excellent time for the utilities to be buying.

Centrica, a company of mixed virtues (check the tag for past examples) but always exceptionally shrewd in its purchasing - of assets as well as commodities - has just taken the opportunity to back up the truck to Qatar for a big contract roll-over, which is intelligent.  They'd already done the same with Gazprom last year.

Interestingly, for the first time in years gas-fired power plants are back in-the-money (hence all the big coal-plant closures this year).  It's not so surprising in the UK with our 'carbon price floor' (a tax devised by Osborne) which boosts gas at the expense of coal.  What's more surprising is that there is a small window of gas being in-the-money in Germany, where they still have only the perennially depressed Emissions Trading Scheme carbon price to contend with.  That really is somewhat unexpected, and probably won't last for long into the coming winter as gas prices rise, both seasonally and with the time-lagged effect of the upward nudge to oil prices since January (Germany still buying a bunch of gas at oil indexation).

This is real energy business, and to hell with Hinkley and the EU 'Energy Union'!

ND

What about me!

Mr Nelson not living up to his auspicious name

It is the call of the Remoaners everywhere.


This  time it is Lloyd's of London at it, or rather the Remain chief executive, John Nelson.


Apparently with no passporting for Financial Services, Lloyds will have to leave. Of course, he can't say where just yet as there is not anywhere for it to go. Lloyd's after all was invented in the Uk and has been here for century after century.


But the Japanese have whined a bit so that is that, all bets are off and we have to leave. Clever lawyers are telling them it is passporting or nothing.


Really, a thought comes to me, if the Government has to change when Brexit is voted for, should companies not also think of changing for the benefit of the Country too - especially ones led by UK Brexit hating CEO's who want nothing but failure for the UK?


I guess on balance we cannot go that far, but this is a great example of the sand in the mill we will see from remoaners for the next few years to come.

New UKIP required but no one going for it in the leadership election

It is hard to look away from a sickening car crash, as we all know, but Labour's woes have dominated the summer silly season with their own ludicrous gaiety.


However, and more importantly too if Corbyn does win, is what is happening with UKIP.

If Labour are to meet their deserved sticky end, then an alternate party is required in the electoral system. For nationalistic reasons the SNP won't stand, if they did Labour would be in big trouble.

UKIP are also having a leadership election, with Diane James a strong favourite. Sadly, her prospectus is wafer thin and full of sound bites. Cleary she is thinks this will get her over the line without having made and Clegg-like commitments that will come back to bite her late.

But, but, but,

Politicians above all must take the world as it comes, not as they would like it to be.  Brexit is done, the main purpose of UKIP nearly complete. As such, the party needs to move on and find a new focus.


Luckily for them, Labour has gone cuckoo at the same time, allowing an opening. There are votes for a fiscally liberal and socially conservative party to be had, a party that stands up for the people and against oligopoly in either private or state sector. A party proud of the UK, using that energy to build the future outside of the UK.


This party cannot be called UKIP or branded UKIP. It need not focus solely on immigration, it can build instead on Grammar school proposals and developing the health service, whilst maintaing the military and reducing foreign aid. Not reducing corporate taxes and instead reducing EU inspired VAT.


Plenty of room, just needs a new logo, colour and direction to be set.


Of course, I have a sneaky feeling if UKIP won't do it, then their ex-leader may do it anyway. And without it, a party of the past has no chance when the Tories come to steal your mantra, just ask the Liberal Democrats.

Ten Years of C@W!

Hard to believe, but ten years ago this month our good host Mr CU - who is too modest to sing his own praises - kicked off the mighty C@W with this deathless piece ...

... the first of 3,876 posts!  And millions of hits.  Yes, it certainly got motoring once he hit his stride and found his natural (and rather eclectic) audience with its highly congenial hardcore of opinionated frequent-flyers.

Wow.  Where would you all be without a regular spot of C@W, eh?

In many ways, 2006-ish was the heyday of good old amateur blogging.  Guido, Dale and ConHome were showing the way and not so much trying to make money from it, even if they had their agenda.  The Left was nowhere to be seen.  There were our old mates Croydonian and Newmania and Dizzy and Alice Cook and Hatfield Girl and Tuscan Tony; and Mutley the Dog, and Idle, and the Hitch ... remember them? - and the dirty Devil busy in his Kitchen; and Scotton Pinkney was flourishing.  We'd get a link on Peston or Robinson at the Beeb and thousands of hits would come deluging in (before they black-listed us, the bastards! And who reads Pesto now?)  Egad, one could reminisce for a whole coffee-break.

Or maybe over a beer?  It has been known.  Watch this space.

Anyhow: a big hand for Dom, the founder of the feast - and Many Thanks to All Our Readers, without whose fine retorts and brilliant banter we would never have kept it up.  (How those tumbleweed bloggers keep going is beyond me.)  Keep coming, keep contributing, and we'll try to keep you entertained.

ND

£13 billion fine for Apple for Irish Sweetheart tax deal

A big fine, worth around €3250 to each Irish citizen.


The US are already unhappy because Apple plays as little tax as possible in the USA and is now daring to pay some in Europe too. Not that Apple will mind, might be quite a relief given the huge cash they have built up and limited investment opportunities open to it.


What of Ireland though...the EU is clearly stepping in, rightly, to stop a sweetheart deal in an economic zone of freedom of capital movement. Other companies may be dissuaded from signing such deals and moving there in the future.


Which all makes sense in the EU zone. It does present an opportunity for the UK; attract Apple with a low rate sweetheart deal and get them to base in the UK post-Brexit. Exactly the kind of mercantilist policy Germany has been using for years via the EU.


Interesting choices for Ireland coming up,  its corporate back taxes, it should go to Ireland, but no doubt the EU will try and claim it as a fine for the EU coffers.


All this on a day when France followed Germany in pulling out of TTIP trade negotiations with the USA too. Brexit shares still moving up, EU ones down.

UPDATE: Chief EDF Frog Back on the Case!

Well blow me, if it isn't the Chief Frog, right on cue!  The Telegraph is obviously hoping for another run of EDF radioactive-turd ads because they have given him a clear run at the propaganda slot: and what rot he is spouting. 

"The Government said it will take a short time to consider the project. That is understandable and I fully respect the decision ... 

... and have just this week been released from three weeks in the clinic after a major attack of apoplexy: now, I'm back in action to threaten you with Chinese Displeasure.

"China’s participation is much more than £6bn of inward investment. It brings the benefits of a 30-year partnership between EDF and CGN in nuclear construction in China, a country with the largest civil nuclear programme in the world"

Sounds nice - for EDF, at least.

"We know and trust our Chinese partners. Beyond that, the UK independent nuclear regulator has only granted Hinkley Point a nuclear site licence after being satisfied that security has been properly addressed. All staff on nuclear projects are rigorously vetted, wherever they come from. As is standard practice, the control systems at Hinkley Point C will be isolated from IT systems and the internet"

Touching stuff.  Hope it's all as secure as the works entrance to Hinkley Point (photo). Writing as someone who has frequently been on the inside of utilities with this approach to IT, I can safely say that any contractor who has access to those 'isolated systems' (which would be quite a few, over the years) has ample opportunity for mischief.

"Once the new-build nuclear industry is restarted, costs are expected to fall for future projects"

OK mon brave, you can come back when you don't need a subsidy and we'll be pleased to see you.  Bon courage with that.

ND

Silly Season Over: Energy Troubles Ahead

I am not one to shout "the lights are going out" too readily, because the government will always make the Grid do whatever it takes, however costly & stupid, to keep homes and hospitals supplied.  But while everyone has been marvelling at Olympic success /  Corbyn lunacy / mass drownings on the beaches of Britain, over the summer we have been tipped off that there could be some real problems for power and gas supplies this coming winter.

On the power side, the pace of closures of coal-fired power stations this spring really caught the authorities by surprise.  We were always going to be down to about 1% capacity margin in the depths of next winter, and now it's going to be negative - even after the Grid has bribed a couple of the coal generators to stay open for just one more season, which is the only thing they have come up with.

And on the gas side, the UK's only really big gas storage facility (the large offshore Rough field) has run into serious problems of old age.   Centrica (the owner) is nursing it back into a few more years of reduced operations, hopefully in time for winter: but we know of old what happens in a cold snap when Rough falters - it's at very least a peaky spot-price spike.  We just about got away with it during a cold snap three years ago.  Next winter, anything much more than a week's worth of extreme cold and we may be (a) completely reliant on some fortuitous LNG cargos becoming available in the Atlantic (= not so cold in Spain + Eastern USA), or (b) stuffed.

[Rough isn't the only large and ageing provider of gas flexibility in winter we won't be able to rely on in future: the mighty Groningen field in the Netherlands, Europe's biggest for over 50 years (sic), and the very large Norwegian Troll are both ailing.  In the Dutch case, the hammering of Groningen for decade after decade is now causing fairly noticeable earthquakes.] 

The real killer will be winter 2017-18.  This game of keeping coal plant on life-support cannot be repeated indefinitely: it's in the nature of large capital assets of the steel'n'concrete variety that once they've been fingered for closure, discretionary maintenance work stops and the whole thing becomes a self-fulfilling prophesy.  Recall also that back in 2008 the EDF Chief Frog said that by 2017 we'd be cooking Christmas lunch on Hinkley Point C electricity, because otherwise the lights would be going out.  Well, he lied about HPC but otherwise he knew that of which he spoke.

Yes folks, it was broadly forseeable way back then (which was when we started blogging about it!), but neither Labour nor the Coalition did anything serious about it.  Takes a while for those plump Xmas turkeys to come home to roost, but they are on the horizon - and they may escape the lunch table altogether.

ND

Will anything happen with Hammond as Chancellor?

I am hearing that the new Chancellor is not planning to do much with the Autumn statement. Really as a new Government in fact, one would have expected quite chance of doing something radical to show a difference to Osborne's non-austerity austerity.


Instead, there is a huge problem with Heathrow where Theresa May is very exposed in her own constituency of Maidenhead, who are deeply anti-expansion. Yet Gatwick seems to be off the menu as BAA have been so successful with their lobbying for Heathrow or bust.


In terms of the economy, it desperately needs some change of tack from the low-rates, low-savings, low growth model created by the Cameroons.


The chance is to boost growth by raising infrastructure spend and relaxing planning laws further. Also to end the pensions triple lock which is denuding many areas of Government of any cash.


However we are likely to get further tax cuts for business, which have so little impact on business investment when personal taxes are so high (most business are privately owned, the personal tax always ends up being key for 99% of people).


Then there is the long overdue review of both public sector pensions provision and the personal tax code including NI. If not now, when?

TrainGate two - Choo choo.

Labour really miss Alistair Campbell and Peter Mandelson in their PR roles..
They used to have the very best. But these days, no one of any use at all..

The pink bus, possibly the most ill conceived political idea of the century, was actually topped by rushing round to have a Yoof Vlog with Russell Brand. Much too late in the cycle to have any impact that wasn't going to be negative.
Incredibly, even that disaster was bettered. By the Ed Stone. Which became the symbol of the whole, horrifically badly orchestrated Miliband election campaign.
Modern politicians need the best spinners, and the best image makers available.

Many years ago, my highly respected PR company girlfriend, came with me as I was doing the BBC's clothes show. 
{Who remembers that show? I did it 3 times! .. none of you remember it? It was the One Show of the 1990s.}
She had heard a radio bit I had done the week before and was very critical of it. Critical, but professional. She did the "This is you...This is what you want to convey. This is what you said..and why you sounded like a jerk...here's how to avoid that in future." 
She really was very good. Headhunted by two top firms before she was 28. And she didn't start in PR until she was 25.
 
If this ex-girlfriend was advising Corbyn it would have gone.

- Why are we on this train? This is a long distance train. We don't want a train that has booked seats. We want a commuter train. 
We want a Southern Trains commuter train. We might get lucky with a cancellation. 

Don't get on yet. Get an establishing shot. Show the packed platform. Film in tight. Get the staffers around you Jez. Tighter than that..Good. Look packed..

Hey? You!..Why are you filming this on an iphone? He wants to be the next Prime Minister. He's not uploading to Instagram for his mates like he's on the school bus? Get a proper camera..You don't have one? I'm sorry..who are you? You're the Comms chief ?..And you didn't think to bring a decent video camera?..Ok..I see its going to be a tough day..  
This train isn't packed..pull the plug now..what? You want to go on?

 These are ticket booked trains..this is going to come unstuck quite easily? Ok, if you insist.. 

..Then find the most packed carriage. Why are you sitting here? ..what's that you said..? "Sitting on the floor makes you look like you can't find a seat?" No..It makes you look like a beggar at a cash point. .. Don't put your legs out..you look like you are hogging limited space..Don't pull your legs up - that look isn't for you. And take your jacket off. Its creasing and making deep shadows and looks untidy. And comb your hair..This is a film to explain some political point? Then try and reach out. The true believers don't care you look like a disillusioned teacher a week before retirement. You need to reach the ex-libs and the now going over to UKIP, former socialists.
Otherwise you might as well just send a tweet to the echo chamber.

Why are you sitting in front of the toilet? Your back is against the bog door. No one sits back against a door that might open. looks like you didn't realise. Or worse, don't care about others needs. Is that Private Eye you are pretending to read? Oh! you ARE reading it? You brought it along for the train journey..I see...well put it away. Get the Guardian..Who's got a copy of the Guardian among Team Jez, please? No One? Seamus Milne? You work fat the Guardian FFS! ,.You say... Its become a capitalist-imperialist-Blairite propaganda sheet? Mr Corbyn..This may be picked up by foreign media ...
 
Look..You're not reading Private Eye..Reading Private Eye is an invitation that gets you on the cover of Private Eye? Go down this "packed" train and get a Guardian or a Metro..or Angling Times. In fact ..forget that..Don't get anything..You are addressing the camera..you don't need any media..certainly not 'old media' Jeremy..You need to sort your legs out. You have them knees together and flopped into a corner. And this cretin is filming from above. You look like a Casualty actor, playing a disabled victim who's fallen from a wheelchair. 




Why are you still filming this on a phone? We can't hear what he says..He's on a moving train, in a corridor. And you are trying to get his words on a phone?

Jeremy..There is no such word as ram-packed..Its either Packed. .. Rammed... Jammed, or Jam-packed. Do it over.. 

Bend one knee up, put one leg half under you. Then rest..CASUALLY REST.. one arm on the knee..on the up knee Jez..Ok..Why are we filming this here. Either get in the bog and say this was the only seat and make a joke about Waterloo. Or film by the carriage door so over your shoulder the packed train interior is visible. Then you are standing up and don't look so homeless and tramp like. Spare £3.50p for a bottle of Virgin Trains Elder-flower, guv'nor?


You are concerned that diminishes the message, Mr Milne? What message is that?
The one that tells people  that trains are quite full?
 That since 1991 you have needed to book in advance for a journey? 
That the reserved seats empty after the first station?
That if you move along you may find an empty seat?
 And if you don't ask the train crew.

Everyone knows this already. This isn't news. It isn't policy. Its just a message of the bleedin' obvious.
If you want to show the merits of nationalisation, go on a nationalised, efficient train in Europe. If you want to show a bad service, go to London Bridge any Friday night. 

Then say
 "This is shite..we will fix it by doing XYZ and it will cost ABC and take PQR amount of time"  

..Right ..this is my stop. I'm off..oh..Milne..its really the end of the line for you too..Luckily you didn't give up the day job..so long..chumps.."

Ahh, she was good. She was earning £60,000 when she was 28, back in the 1990s.  The following year she gave it all up to have a baby and quit for good. Never went back. Women in the workforce..
but that's a post for another day.

Choo-Choo - Silly Season continues.

I was reading the obituary of Sir Antony Jay, masterly creator of Yes, Minister this morning


It made me think this morning that the really challenge of any comedy is to make it funnier than real life, or at least appear so.


Following  Yes Minister we had 20 years later the brilliant The Thick of It - reflecting the coarsening tone of public discourse and also the hectic madness of a 24 hour news cycle.


But yesterday we have a brilliant show, one of the world's best PR experts in Richard Branson against one of the world's worst, in Jeremy Corbyn. For anyone else, pictures of him walking past empty seats to made a little film about packed trains would be a resigning issue - after all it suggests complete lack of judgement and nous.


Oddly though, his opponent is in fact we find a comedic character, Owen Smith, who is actually worse as a public performer than Corbyn. Not as bad, or so, but actually worse. For example today, he passionately said he is opposed to Brexit and will make Labour do everything possible to stop it. Then, having besmirched democracy he calls Jeremy Corbyn a lunatic whilst on stage.


I mean, FFS, how can you do this? How can you be so bad. Literally, a man off the street could put in a better performance than either of these two.


Jim Hacker is a titan by comparison.

Sadiq Khan Becoming a Major Player

... and Greens, LibDems ... anyone with a vote, really

Sadiq Khan has long been someone to watch.  Happy to play the Muslim card, but basically a pure power-player, very much open for business.  Voice of Labour In The Wilderness;  Top-Ranking Elected Labour Politician;  Friend of the City in Brexit Negotiations;  Deliverer of the Multi-Culti Vote; Kingmaker for Owen Smith ... - makes Corbyn look like the side-show pygmy he is.

Looks like it's Khan vs Momentum-McDonnell for control of the Labour Party.

If, as several of us have mused, a primary scenario for the fate of Labour is to become the Muslim Party of England, Khan is obviously in the mix for years to come.  They'd struggle to find a leader who could better minimise the electoral oblivion that would ensue.  A messy triple negative, I realise - but you probably see what I mean.

ND  

UPDATE - Will Sadiq Khan be the next Labour leader?  - well there's a thing!  

Things you really should not say out loud...weekend thread

"I will negotiate with ISIS" Owen Smith

"I won't go to War in honour of NATO Commitments" Jeremy Corbyn

These two are obviously playing a very funny summer game 'double-down' where you compete to say the most silly things and see if you can get away with it. It is like a political version of the world's dirtiest joke...


So - where do we go from here - what is your political double-down to join in the fun?


I will start with:


"We need to help more Syrian refugees - open borders are the only correct moral choice"

Minimal Brexit economic impact...will it last?

Coming as no surprise to readers here, Brexit has yet to have any meaningful impact on the economy.


There was a 2 week heart attack in June/July after the scaremongering panicked everybody on the result. However, since then we have seen retail sales are up, inflation up slightly, a weakened pound has powered tourism and employment has continued to slightly fall. The FTSE is hugely up for good measure.


However, much as it is fun to point at the increasingly more desperate remainiacs and their howls of outrage, we won't really see the impact over the short-term. When article 50 is enacted, when the fate of EEA or not is decided, then bigger decisions about UK investment will be made. Of course, in the meantime things carry on and in and of itself this will protect the UK against the longer term threats. Companies already here are going to get stickier as time progresses and they see the effects of Brexit taking years or decades.


So perhaps Remain are right, 6% less GDP potential by 2030, I cant see how that will ever really be noticed.


As a bet, I can see growth for the 3rd quarter coming in at 0.5% or better, when the doomsaying remainiacs are saying it is nailed on shrinking and recession.

Smith says time to negotiate with ISIS

I promise to do this piece without breaking Godwin's law.


In another ridiculous Labour leadership hustings today, not much light was generated.


However a true blow was struck, challenger Owen Smith revealed himself to be a worse candidate than Jeremy Corbyn.


Corbyn, as everyone outside his cult knows, is just an old fool. Full of old, disproven ideas and charmingly convinced by them. He is useless, in a sort of Tim-Nice-But-Dim way.


Owen Smith, new to the political scene, has found himself out quite quickly. A right wing Labour man who is spouting any old left-wing guff to get elected.


Including the corker today of saying it is the right thing to do to negotiate with ISIS. I mean really, you first Owen, I'll buy your ticket to Damascus and hire a cab to take you to Raqqa, let me know how that works out for you?


This the day after he revealed, that the Tories still have a secret plan to destroy the NHS, eat babies and Harry the North....


It is incredible, where do they find these people. The guy has not one clue about anything at all and has managed to make the worst leader ever look like he is only the second-worst option.


Truly, we are in the summer silly season.

Elitist Olympics defeats ideological left

I am not usually that obsessive about the Olympics, but this year some very interesting things are happening to make GB sit second in the medal table and likely to finish 3rd yet again:


a) Since Lottery funding in 1997 started, GB has rapidly progressed up the medal tables at each competition. Basically, money for training, coaches and equipment makes a big deal when allied to raw talent.


b) The money though could have been splurged, instead, led by Tory Lord Coe, the money is focused on winners' and winning teams. Events where GB has no chance get no funding, medals win more money. It is a capitalistic form of financial support.


c) A huge crackdown on drug taking has taken place over the last few years. As such, you now see US, UK, and EU countries all in the top ten, whilst Eastern European countries have fallen away.

This tells me in an unfair fight, state socialism was able to game the system to their advantage - plus they also realised the importance for national pride a lot sooner than the Western countries. However, once the stage was made fairer, the application of money in the right way has allowed the Western countries to re-emerge as the leaders.


However, as we well know, money can be spent very badly indeed,  it is a credit to the system in GB that elitism takes prominence above all else and thus we have the winners we desire. There is a nice parallel here with bringing back grammar schools and the false arguments against them raised on the left.


How galling it must be for the Labour party, stuck in an endless leadership muddle, to also see a global event which undermines the ideology underlying most of their potential policy ideas.

To holiday in the UK, or overseas

• Families hit with a £250 holiday tax and a triple whammy of stealth fees
• Air passenger duty, VAT and insurance tax have soared by 40 per cent 
• Hidden car hire extras, currency scams and credit card fees add to pain

Said the headlines today. The pain of holiday.

This summer, the great debate of Overseas-all-in, versus, UK-All-to-Come took place in the BQ household. The cost was the big BQ factor. The sun was the Mrs BQ factor.Even though her pale, Irish skin can burn if she sits under a florescent tube.  Kids - Well, they just want to have fun.

Having only very, very recently got into the all-in, I am a convert. They were nothing like the chav, heavy drinking, fat face stuffing, Hi-de-Hi event I imagined. They are just for families on holiday. Doing family on holiday things. My 18-30 days clouded my judgement.

But, we do go to Cornwall sometimes too. Not camping. I couldn't put up a poster. And Mrs Q won't be further than 10 meters from a hairdryer. But cottage stay or resort huts thing is great.

A family of 4, 1 week to the med, all inclusive, first week of children's holidays was looking at about £3,500 last minute. That's a lot more than last year since all the terror outbreaks put Turkey and North Africa off many people's lists. 

A cottage in Dorset, £1100 rent for the week.But with zip included. Toilet roll and a welcome half pint of milk.

I was leaning to overseas. The UK sun had yet to come out. Instead being muggy with cloud. Sweaty and grey - So No UK - You cannot be trusted. With just your 4 weeks of good sun a year. And those weeks could be anytime from March-December.

The water park was free? {free entry - still have to pay for the stuff inside- that's not very clear in the brochure}. The beach was near. The food was 3-4star. The ice cream included. All the soft drinks the children could want. Wifi in areas? {probably the reception - not a lot of use} And the temperature - warm to boiling. Great.

But then the terror kicked off again in Nice. And I said lets go UK. Just so we wouldn't get stuck somewhere because there was a deadline involved.

Picked that lovely week when the sun was finally out in the UK. The drive to Dorset is about 90 minutes. The stress free aspect of home holiday can't be emphasised enough. Its worth a few hundred quid just to be able to drive to holiday. Park the car. Unload. And that's it. No airport parking fees. No ten hours in airports. Waiting and checking and stamping and loading and queuing and eating and queuing and dropping and forgetting and arguing and panicking and so on.  

Mrs Q had taken a few meals with her. {And had brought the shopping? Despite my best efforts, she seemed to think Dorset was like Belarus and they would only have strangely labeled tins of dubious contents. - They do have Sainsbury's , you know? I KNOW! ..{but she didn't really believe they would.}

WIFI included. TV and DVD all their - Books /games/ / garden/ It was really, very, very nice. Beach a stroll away. Water parks and adventure stuff and lots to do. It was a great holiday.

On balance, the cost is about the same between UK and over there.. Meals for 4, even only once a day, in the UK, is expensive unless its fast food. Attractions are really expensive. Any kid over 10 is an adult. Drinks out and ice cream  is costly. Parking, is costly. Boat trips etc ..all costly.

I think the UK trip probably came in about £300 less than the £3,500 all in. No more than £500 less. 

Of course, its possible to do it for much less if you just live like you would normally and not as if you were on holiday. Lunch from a meal deal at a supermarket. Only go where your national trust card will allow you. Use the vouchers and offers. Skip the treats. But where's the fun in that?

The trouble for the UK is that despite very significant advantages of a UK holiday, is that the weather cannot be relied upon. And that is a very significant factor in very many people's holiday plans.

Tax on a flight to the sun would have to rise quite a lot more to make the UK the first choice for most.

More aggressive taxing of UK business

The UK Valuations Office has slipped out a corker during the quiet summer period with the Olympics on.

From January 2015 (yes, retrospective) occupants of any building that does not have direct access between floors will be separately rated rather than treated as one joint rental. This leads to a much larger tax bill. Even if you rent and office and use the common parts, stairs/lifts etc, it won't count.

And this is retrospective. Helpfully, businesses wont knowhow much they owe until the VAO gets around to telling them.

Honestly, what a shoddy way to approach tax collection. It is highly aggressive in the extreme.

Australia shows the way

Obligatory Sporting Vague Link

It is hard to fathom really how the UK is still even thinking about going ahead with Hinkley Nuclear Power station. The facts have simply changed beyond all doubt since its inception, before we even get to the pathetic deal that was negotiated.

Meanwhile, the Chinese have made noises about how unhappy they will be if we pull out. This is really code for if you don't buy French, then buy Chinese direct. I think they are onto a loser with that line of thinking.

In a nice twist, the Aussies have today decided to stop China buying their power grid. Nice as the Chinese are they do have this rather well earned name for massive cyber attacks and economic cyber crime. I would agree that selling them the kit that runs a country is not such a good idea.

Sadly in the UK we have long since sold all key industrial backbone abroad, albeit we retain National Grid (it is a listed company though, so vulnerable). I am less worried by the French and Germans though as state entities.

So with the Aussies bravely clearing the way, perhaps Mrs May can do the decent thing and put Hinkley out of its misery and get on with fracking/gas alternative which won't be as cheap or as quick as we need, but is a lot better than the current impasse.

Corbyn silly season ad infinitum

Well a week away does not seem to have changed much for myself, thanks to BE, ND and BQ for keeping up the production line - no August shut downs for us.

(On that note, I was working with an Italian Bank this week and even they shut the office in August, its the only way the Owners can get the staff to take their paid holiday apparently, otherwise they just turn up for an hour a day here and there for the month....).

Anyhow, Mr Corbyn I am starting to find really rather intriguing. For a man who has held the same views all his life he appears to have come up with no policy ideas at all - everything is a protest. Worse, the Labour party have decided to put up an even greater fool against him in the form of Owen Smith. he also has no policies or indeed, ideas or, sadly, charisma.

So now, after some usual technical and legalistic skulduggery (funny how the anarchist left is always so keen on using bureaucratic powers to get their way?), Corbyn is totally nailed on to win a second Labour leadership contest.

I can only guess at his plan, which must be to hang in there until for some unknown reason the Tories come a cropper and he magically becomes Prime Minister. Or maybe no, perhaps the UK descends into 1970's and worse style strikes and social disorder and there is some sort of left-wing Coup.

Anyway, this is all very unlikely indeed. The more pertinent, and hilarious, issue is what do the Labour moderates do. Their party is gone, soon they will face deselections and see the end of their rebellion. But my hunch is they don't have the cahoonas' to go full SDP2 and leave as they have no voter base to work with - trying to steal some of the Lib Dem's 8% does not look good and they HATE the working class who now vote UKIP (Emily Thornberry as the stand out example).

So they perhaps will resile to their fate and seek jobs at charities and such like or back in PR and Schools whence they came. It would take a heart of stone not to laugh. Key tip for next time, don't invite vampires into your house, it never ends well. At least they will have time to watch some movies.

The gaiety of the nation is ensured for at least 4 more year with Corbyn ensconced as leader of the opposition and that bit is at least good news for all.

What this means for politics in other parties in the UK, is for another post.

Trooble at UKIP Mill

The occasional glimpse of goings-on down UKIP way remind one of nothing so much as a particularly hyperactive and foetid Students Union.  How Michael Crick can bother himself to figure out what's happening is beyond me.  

Conventional wisdom is that it's all part of Theresa May's miraculous legacy: the only cohesive force she faces is the SNP.

But hang on: doesn't UKIP have a vital role over the coming few years - finishing off Corbyn's Labour in the North, and disciplining any back-sliding Tory MPs - ?  

One of the big lessons of the last 120 years of British politics is that we are (were?) naturally a two-party state.  If UKIP can be reckoned on to self-destruct (and they are evincing that rather effectively), one can see Owen Smith's vision rather clearly.  And indeed John McDonnell's ...  May rather needs these two and their respective camps to wreak their own acts of fratricide.

ND

Let's make some money

 When its the school holidays my children are sometimes found in my workplace. Playing Ipad and drawing and watching TV.  Usually its auto default is to Sky News.

My boy, who is 7, asked,

 "Did that man just say he was going to print some money?"
"Yes..I think he did."
"Wow ..that is an awesome idea.."

And he set himself to work, following the best advice of the financial experts of the BOE.

One Killien pounds

He copied a tenner, and added a dose of inflation.

"This is Queen Elisabeth the 2. She owns all the money in the country"
"Great ..Who's that on the back?"

"That's Charles Darwin. He invented the turtle. And he's Santa's dad. Because he went to Christmas island. And you can tell because they have the same beard."

"I see .. And can we use this Killien pounds in the shops? To buy lots of things?"

"No..that would be a crazy idea. "

I hope you're taking note, Mr Carney.

Also ... I don't think I ever got my £10 back.

Plain Speaking in the FT - For Once

Newspapers in thrall to advertisers are very rarely a good source of writing on the failings of corporates.  The way the FT berated itself (after the event, of course) for having failed to finger the Enron thing brewing was pitiful to behold.

And I'm by no means a fan of the FT's Nick Butler: but for once he has written plainly and truthfully.

Nuclear safety ...  yeah, right

... the experience of Hinkley Point demonstrates that civil servants and ministers are not well equipped to negotiate complex commercial deals against corporate entities with highly developed skills who are able to employ every device, including slick PR techniques against them. On Hinkley the UK negotiators were rolled over.

There will be few projects as large in scale as this one but there are several — including HS2 and the third London airport — where huge amounts of money are at stake. The failure of the Hinkley negotiations, which is commonly acknowledged now in Whitehall, has encouraged the new leadership of the civil service in their desire to develop much higher levels of expertise in key disciplines cutting across their outdated 19th-century structure. They deserve complete support from Mrs May and her ministers. These skills are needed now more than ever because of Brexit ...

We could have done with a bit more of this three years ago - the Telegraph was the worst, seemingly a paid mouthpiece of EDF around that time  ("slick PR techniques ..." - yes, and totally unsubtle advertising cash).  But they've all come over from the Dark Side nowadays.  Better late than never ... 

"On Hinkley the UK negotiators were rolled over" - ain't that the truth.  And his Brexit point is the right macro-conclusion, too.

ND

Copying the USA election

Following on from Blue Eyes and electoral methods, what would the UK look like under the United States system?

 

The USA has 50 states that are allocated electoral votes on a mostly by population system. The more populous the state, the higher number of electoral votes each state has. Each state totals up the votes and whichever candidate has the most votes, wins those electoral college votes.
Its FPTP with a twist. 

There are a number of anomalies with voting by district. And some underpopulated states such as Alaska and Hawaii are hugely over represented, but these minnows they still only have 3 votes per state. Once a hopeful presidential leader amasses 270 votes, they win. Unless its Al Gore.

The UK has 64.1 million people. Taking that as a basis each region of the UK has a number of people within each of the 9 English regions and the 3 of the nations that make up the UK. 
The South East region is the most populous with some  8,634,750 people. The smallest region is Northern Ireland with 1.8 million people.

 

The UK has about 20% of the USA population. {which is pretty amazing if you think about it. The UK is around 60% of the size of California.  But has 1.5 times the population. Wyoming has 10% of the population of Scotland.}

Taking 20% of the total people of the USA x 20% gives {with some fiddling because I could only find 2008 data} and we have an electoral college of 106 to allocate. We add one because the USA got itself into a right mess by having an even number of votes.

107 with 54 needed to win.

 By Region - number of EC votes

South East - 15

London - 14

North West - 12

East of England - 11

West Midlands - 9

South West - 9

Yorkshire and the Humber - 9

Scotland - 9

East Midlands - 8

North East - 4

Wales - 4

Northern Ireland - 3

By region at 2016

South East - 15 {con}

London - 14 {lab}

North West - 12 {lab}

East of England - 11 {con}

West Midlands - 9 {con}

South West - 9 {con}

Yorkshire and Humber - 9 {lab}

Scotland - 9 {snp}

East Midlands - 8 {con}

North East - 4 {lab}

Wales - 4 {lab}

Northern Ireland - 3 {dup}

Con - 52
Lab - 43
SNP - 9
DUP - 3

So Nothing much changes. The Tories need DUP to win. Labour need SNP and DUP to win. West Midlands is the only region likely to change from Con to Lab. Still not enough without SNP.

Under USA system that wouldn't happen anyway. If neither had more than 54 votes then each region would have one vote each to elect a Prime Minister. If it was 6 each then, I have no idea..

So what does this tell us?

Scotland and the rise of the SNP stops Labour winning.

London is growing faster than the South East. London has three times as many people as the North East does.

 Not a lot then..

Except we really, really, really don't need anything like 650 MPs.