Cameron of Epirus

 

Political commentators were quite surprised when David Cameron decided to put himself at the centre of the campaign to renegotiate the UK's membership of the European Union. 

This wasn't a friendly and meaningless summit where the goals and possible achievements are wrangled over months in advance with a friendly communique declaring victory for all sides is issued at the end regardless of what was achieved. It wasn't the usual grandstanding jolly boys outing for heads of state to get positive PR headlines and a few days break from tedious domestic politics.

This was something serious. Something that an advisor might describe as 'Courageous'.

 - No guarantee of any concrete result, despite the negotiators being sent in advance to asses the ground.

- No guarantee of consensus from all the other EU members. Very few allies at any discussions. The ever present unwillingness of the EU to ever concede a loss of  its powers. Plus, a hostile home media very suspicious of the actions of the PM in going there at all.

Usually the leader would send a trusty subordinate to fight on his behalf. William Hague would have been just the man if he was still in post. Dependable. Reliable. Competent. Popular among colleagues. Luckily, the PM had another such man to send instead. Philip Hammond, a key Remain man, and Foreign Secretary, he seemed prefect for the role. He would have done as asked. He is very capable. When the Heads of State part came around, the PM could have flown over for the high profile, do or die moment. And to take the glory for the success in any negotiations.
 

Cameron could also have avoided some of the blame for the resulting minor concessions that were  eventually won. The 'thin gruel' could have been laid at Hammy's door. So avoiding the full taint of failure. The renegotiation concessions, much trumpeted before the event as a turning point in the UK's relationship with the European Union, turned out to be so feeble that they have not been mentioned by the Remain campaign since their announcement.

Fast forward to the Remain campaign and the lessons of 1975.

Wilson did not make himself the main leader for remain. He was 'pro remain' but was wise enough to be looking at the post referendum situation on his already fractious party. Wilson allowed MPs to campaign as they wished. That allowed him to return some of the big beasts of the Leave campaign to his own small majority party, with minimal fuss. At the time Tony Benn and Michael Foot were the Gove and Johnson of the day. Well known, popular figures among party members or the public.

The lessons of 2014 Scottish Referendum should have been heeded too. The Labour party that had been previously been dominant in Scottish politics for decades, had lost ground, and was looking to re-establish its control, was wiped out in the post referendum election. Completely wiped out. No signs of any recovery at all. The punishment some say, for siding with the Tory enemy over the referendum.

Why Cameron has decided to put himself at the very centre of only one wing of his party is a mystery. He may have chosen the bigger wing, for reasons that he absolubtely believes in, but that will not help him with the aftermath of a Remain victory. He has deliberately chosen to use all the power of the government. Of the civil service. Of the opposition parties and of big business to campaign for one side, with himself, and his Chancellor as the front men for that side.

David Cameron is not a stupid man. He knows all the reasons for not doing what he done.

So, does he believe he has Blair like powers of persuasion that will allow him to soothe hurt feeling and allow reconstruction after the civil war? 

Does he believe that the vote was going to be so close that only his own intervention, with all the force of his personality and gravitas as leader was the only way to bring victory to Remain? And the consequences of those actions would just have to be dealt with later once victory was assured.

Or does he think, what the hell..I'm going in one or two years anyway. A new leader can sort all of this mess out much easier than I could anyway. I'm off..

Tory Remainers are probably backing that the labour party is in such a mess that it doesn't matter too much what they do to themselves. They have plenty of time, with the fixed term act, to rebuild a consensus. And the woeful Corbyn isn't remotely interested in short term political point scoring and a long term undermining strategy anyway.

The flaw in all of that is it is likely to get a lot more fractious before it gets less. That the economy is bound to tip before the next election so damaging the one favourable Tory constant since 2010, economic management. And that Corbyn is unlikely to be leader for 2020.

Labour MPs will not allow another leader to ruin their best chance of power since 2010. A divided, damaged, floundering Tory party, without the full backing of its usually supportive media is an easy target for any half decent opposition leader.

To imagine Labour will just blithely continue not to have one is wishful thinking.

Panic is an Ugly Spectacle. Bring On Merkel

That's it, really.  Project Fear is failing and panic has set in. 

And I'm not sure the Remainders know how to parley their panic into anything more attractive.  Running focus groups would be a good line of business to be in right now - they'll be commissioning ten a day from here on in.  ("... and how would your feelings change if we told you George Galloway would be Prime Minister if we leave?  Kim Jong-un?  Bill Cash?  Richard North?  Fred West?")

Can't wait for the promised intervention from Merkel!  (Or was that it ..?)

ND

BHS goes the way of Woolies

Despite all the hand-wringing, BHS has gone to the wall as was entirely predictable.


No one came forward with enough cash to cover the gaping hole in working capital. Unsurprising, when as a retailer you start to fail it really is a tough time, you get insurances withdrawn and credit facilities with suppliers withdrawn and from there it is a steep mountain to climb back up; most never do.


Now the Government will have its fun looking into Sir Philip Green and Damon Chappell - but who will spot the obvious business model issue as the true cause of the decline. Well, there are no grandstanding votes in that so no one will.


However, the taxpayer is on the hook for the pensions as was always likely and will most likely happen with Tata steel too. Surely not there has to be some legislation, somewhat counter-intuitive, that stops companies making pension commitments that they won't be able to keep and then get lumped on the taxpayer.


Of course, with defined contribution schemes, that is already the case. We need now though to make them de riguer in the public and private space so that the future tax burdens of the Country are not even more utterly horrendous than they are already.


Given our politicians at the moment though, they will probably decide the opposite solution is better....

UK Population Growth 1970 to present

source: tradingeconomics.com




One of the key themes of the referendum is the level of UK immigration. For Remain it is their Kryptonite Weakness and for Leave their sole source of potential victory.


Equally, both sides are happy to spin their way through any discussion. But these charts tell us what we need to know. In the 1970's, the UK's sick man of Europe schtick kept people away and the population even shrank as people fled the Socialist Republic. By the time Thatcher had finished her reforms in the late 1908's a baby boom and more immigration meant the population started growing again.


Then in the early 2000's Blair made his fatal mistake of allowing unlimited East European immigration and population growth really took hold. Looking at the chart below it soon overtook its historic trend line and posted above average growth rates. In absolute numbers it is much the same. Between 1970 and 1990 less than 2 million people were added to the population numbers. Between 1990 and 2010 another 3 million were added then in the last 3 years alone another million have arrived.


Clearly, the growth rate is heading towards exponential levels. Whatever Remain say, people are dead right to be concerned at the growth rate at a time when Government spending on services is at best staying the same in real terms.


Something has to give, if Remain are right a recession post-Brexit will make things temporarily worse, but perhaps a bout of 1970's attractiveness as an immigration bolt hole is just what the patient requires.







source: tradingeconomics.com

Marxism today; A French Example

As a Ros-Bif, it takes a heart of stone not to look across the channel and laugh at the state of France and its political economy. But overtime, the laugh fades.




After all France already has its version of Jeremy Corbyn, in the form of President Hollande. Even this left-wing President has realised that massive unemployment rates are not helped by companies never being allowed to fire anyone, nor that the huge state spending can be helped by large numbers of people on the payroll permanently.




In fact, it is a minor miracle of EU funding for the Common Agricultural Policy and export of nuclear energy that means that France's economy is actually not falling over worse than the UK. They have some manufacturing base, they have lots of space and not excessive property costs, the taxes are stupid but few pay and there are plenty of loopholes.




Increasingly though, this is not enough, the strikes that always afflict France are growing worse as the extreme-left senses victory and also rebels against the rise of Le Pen style nationalism. To an outside it is an obvious yin/yang dichotomy. The more the left grows, the more the extreme right too. Also when long-term Government makes so many bad mistakes that the economy suffers, extremist politics prosper.




France, whilst steadily deteriorating is a warning to the UK too. Centrist Government that cannot make painful decisions leads to a sclerotic economy that in turn gives rise to extremist politics. The UK with UKIP , SNP and militant takeover of Labour is itself someway down this path. Only the current Government has the actual power to change things in a way that will show people that a centrist path can be the right choice. Dodging discussions on immigration, Europe, Heathrow - any number of issues, only serves to destroy the Centre ground that wins elections for the Tories.

To Hollow Laughter, Hinkley Rumbles On

Some well-placed Americans of my acquaintance recently had an audience with DECC ministers for a tour d'horizon, and tell me the government is utterly convinced that the great radioactive white elephant of the Hinkley project is going ahead, because the French are utterly determined.  (Well, they convinced their visitors on that score anyhow: but as we know, Americans are sometimes quite ready to buy redundant Thames bridges from smooth-talking Brits ...)

As we've said before, when governments with decent credit ratings are involved, commercial reasoning and indeed any other kind of logic can fly out of the window as easily as a radioactive elephant with Dumbo-wings.  It would be bold to stake too much on reason prevailing in the case of Hinkley.  They have been saying the investment decision is a mere four months away since 2008, and one day it may turn out to be true.  (One day, it might turn out to be 'Non'.)  Each time they have to recant we get the most amazing sophistry, but it's a delight to see how they manage it with a straight face every time: Heaven knows, they've had enough practice, these Gallic snake-oil peddlers. 

This time, of course, they've decided it's essential to consult their workforce, a 'due process' that will naturally take 6 months, and couldn't possibly be rushed, still less skipped altogether, oh dear me no.  Well, they don't want to provoke a riot, do they?

What is harder to understand is why the UK and Chinese governments aren't just terminally pissed off with all this nonsense and moving on to something more productive.  Have they no pride?  Aren't the Chinese supposed to be pretty anxious about keeping face?  Why do they continue to pander to the radioactive turd that is EDF?

ND

More meaningless immigration stats for the UK released

A masochist asks a sadist, "Please hurt me."

"No," replies the sadist

(Arnon Mishkin)

It does not matter how much proof there is that the UK is heading for a social disaster due to excess immigration; all the politicians in charge deny it and decry it racism to even mention the issue.  Even with a Referendum the position taken by the Elite is to deny reality.

It is a strange world we have created in 2016.

Is Project Fear really going too far ?

Here is Vote Remain's daily warning about the dangers of a UK exit of the European Union.
The Treasury would like to stress that only some of these predictions 'may' happen. And only some of them 'could' occur. 

Though if any were to materialise they would take place within 24 hours of a Brexit vote.

Deficit not coming down when the sun is shining - no wonder Brexit is off the menu for Osborne

A long time ago, a phrase was used by the Leader of the Opposition, it went along the lines of

"You did not fix the roof when the sun was shining."

And it rang true, because at the time the Labour Government was busy increasing state spending. In 2000, having followed Tory budgets for the first term in office, total UK Government spending was £341 billion.

By 2005 and the second Labour General Election win, Spending had reached £492 billion. A massive 31% increase in state spending in just a five year period. No wonder the Government won the election easily even with the unpopular Iraq war as a key issue.

At the 2010 election, £693 billion was being spent by the Government. More than double what has been spent 10 years earlier in a time of relatively low inflation. However, with GDP growth quite high as a result of the bubble Government spend had only gone up by 4% of GDP so not great but not terrible...except....

e

The real issue had come in 2007, with all new fangled benefits galore to hand out, social spending in the Financial Crisis combined with a horrific loss of tax income saw Government spending saw to 50% of GDP. An the deficit and national debt soared with no money to pay for the 'automatic stabilisers.'

So to 2016, the Tory Government has seen a return to GDP growth and cut Government spending back down to 43% of GDP. The real damage though is in the tax base. There has been no recovery of the fake boom Banking tax take. Nor are there any signs it is coming back.

In April 2016 corporate tax receipts are lower than a year ago despite a growing economy. The tax won't come back. And because of that the deficit remains very high by historical standards at 4.4% of GDP.

With little appetite for tax cuts the roof is not fixed, the next recession is pretty close being at most 3 years away and possibly sooner with Brexit, there is no chance of the deficit being fixed in time. The sun has been shining but he damage was too great is what Osborne will argue.

But this alone makes me wonder about a Corbyn Government. By 2019 plenty of people will have forgotten the 2007 mess and who was at fault or not. When the Tories look vulnerable on the economy they generally lose the election. I wonder if it will come to pass. 



Leadership Bid, or What?

I think we know what to make of this ...

I know you guys don't agree with me that Corbo is a resigner: but Mr M seems to be hedging his position on that, wouldn't you say?

ND

Referendum? F*** 'Em All !

"I wrote Bless ’Em All while serving in France in 1916. And, furthermore, it wasn’t *Bless*."        Fred Godfrey

They say there’s a government-funded campaign 
Bound for each home in the land 
Laden with scare-stories, bullshit and lies 
And arguments none understand 
There’s many a voter who buys Project Fear 
There’s voters with backs to the wall 
There’s none to defend’em in this referendum 
So cheer up my lads, f*** ‘em all ! 

F*** ‘em all, f*** ‘em all, 
This is our last chance for withdrawal 
F*** all the Mandys and Christine Lagardes 
F*** Francois Hollande - the whole house of cards 
'Cos we’re saying *goodbye* to them all ! 
Dave’s package gives Brits bugger-all 
There’s none to defend’em in this referendum 
So cheer up my lads, f*** ‘em all !

They say “if we stay we can influence best” 
We’ve heard all that bollocks before 
“Just admit Turkey and all of the rest 
And take a few immigrants more” 
There’s many a sucker has taken it in 
Hook, line and sinker an’ all 
There’s none to defend’em in this referendum 
So cheer up my lads, f*** ‘em all !

Now they say Jean-Claude Juncker’s a very nice chap 
Oh! What a tale to tell ! 
Ask him to curb the Commissioners’ powers 
He’ll give you a rebate as well ! 
There’s many a Briton who’s blighted his life 
Trusting to General de Gaulle 
There’s none to defend’em in this referendum 
So cheer up my lads, f*** ‘em all !

Everyone knows what a twat Dave has been
So cheer up my lads, f*** ‘em all !


ND

Help !

David Cameron is having a 'luvvies luv EU' day, today. And is joining in with that impossible to resist crossing of the Abbey Road zebra crossing.

So, Weekend compo. An also impossible to resist list of Beatles albums and song-titles, on a European Theme.

 
Entries in the comments.
Prize is to have the casting vote on any 50-50 split.


BQ Suggests:

The Ballard of Dave and Osbo.
A Day in the Lie
Get Back {in line}
Norwegian's Good
Treaty Directives Writer
Please, Please Merkel
P.S. I love EU
Strawberry Regulations Forever
We Can't Work it Out
You never give me EU money

Let's not forget Grexit

Not so long ago, a mere 5 years which seems like yesterday, it was the Euro that was breaking up.


Only the use of a crazed scheme of money printing has kept it together at the expense of Japanification of the European Economy.


Currently, the Remain side is cruising in the UK in the polls, and as predicted here, it is only events that can lead to the shift necessary for Brexit to win the Euro Referendum.


But June is nearly upon us and Greece is needs another change to its terms, given Merkel will not allow the desperately needed re-structure. So it may yet come to pass that the EU boot on the throat to Greece provides the #BREXITEVENT.

A weird place for a war to start

The South China Sea is becoming ever more a flashpoint in the world. A bunch of islets formerly inhabited by escaping boat people and low utility pirates, is now one of the few places in the World where military superpowers face-off against one another.


Yesterday, yet another incident, with Chinese planes intercepting US ones. Nominally this is all in international airspace but China has decided these islands belong to them and are about to dispute this - when their defences are ready.


There must be a trove of oil and gas in the region to make this such a worthwhile fight - all of which continues to go unmentioned in the press.


Still though, it is strange how often in the world the most remote places and incidences lead to later catastrophe. Let's just hope this can be avoided this time by China learning to compromise.

House prices up 9% in year to March

One thing I really have against the Conservative Government is the crazy approach to housing in the UK.

- We allow in 300,000 immigrants a year and build at best 100,000 new units

- We have easy laws on renting and make that profitable (recently changed I accept) whilst making mortgages hard to get for new buyers

- There is plenty of land, but planning permission is granted in a very restrictive way

- when the Government did act, in the Budget, it has caused a huge spike in Buy to Let purchases that have led to this 9% price rise.

This 9% is a big number, £15,000 + - a huge amount for anyone wanting to buy a house.

Also, every time house prices rise it further locks in the unequal society of the rich over-60's vs the poor under 30's; evermore split as the latter have no savings or assets and the former see theirs rise tax free month in and month out.

It is a very sad state of affairs and I despair that no Government has the guts to make the changes. This current Government has made buying property more expensive and raised taxes, but this seems to have done little (unsurprisingly) to have fixed the underlying issues.

I would expect come 2020 Housing will be right up their with the NHS in terms of peoples' concerns about the state of the nation.

Migration; the shape of things to come

The BBC is today have a nice little right-on orgasm as it interviews a UN commissioner on refugees and their beloved heroine Angeline Jolie-Pitt (she's attractive! she had cancer! she is a luvvie!).

There will, as ever, be little to see here. The refugee crisis is building across the world. Statistically, there has been a drop in war fatalities over the past two years across the world. 

There are less hot wars now than in the historic past - although of course more trouble in the Middle East which is closer to Europe and more accessible. 

There are also ongoing issues across Africa and Asia, whilst Europe, South America, North America, North Asia and Australia remain almost entirely at peace. 

Yet war and escaping from it are blamed as the cause of migration. The simpler fact is the huge population growth and limited economic progress (I mean this on a good way) means there are literally far more people able to try to move for a better life. 

The major world population growth areas left are Africa and South Asia. In Africa Nigeria takes a big lead and in Asia it is Pakistan and Bangladesh. Benighted countries these, unsurprisingly people will want to leave for something better as they mature. 

This is the true driver of migration. To me, our futureselves will look back in sneeringly at the lefty approach of today; allowing mas migration to destabilise strong societies with the unwanted from failing societies. You can argue this too happened in the opening up of the US, but the scale is different - plus there was little to destabilise in the US and no one technically there at all beyond the Indians. 

Instead in the future we will see a much more Australian approach to life, with borders controlled more effectively to stop ever increasing numbers of migrants from over-running society; again, this is what happened in the Dark Ages too so it is not without precedent in history, far from it. 

It is not about blaming migrants themselves, who would not want a better future. However, society in Europe will be able to cope with a few millions of migrants a year at most; the current 10's of millions will not be sustainable, no matter how much UN and fellow-travellers would like it to be.

BBC will continue forever, no capitalism thanks very much

I have written this article before when there has been a charter renewal. Everytime the Government flunks it, everytime it thinks about the acres of press articles from the luvvies and decides that the battle just ain't worth it.

No Government can stem a populist hoard led by Damian Lewis and Joanna Lumley.

Instead, cravenly, the Government signs on on another 10 years of enforced taxes to pay for product that would be freely made available on the market to the same leve.

Everytime I hear how we don't want AMERICAN TV, with its adverts, tons of new programming, funny comedies and lack of right-on bias. Who would want that for free eh?

In 2016, of course it is even worse. People will now be charged to use the iplayer because the actual model of TV subscription is dead anyway due to technology progress. In 5 years smart TV's will be the only thing around, content will be king and delivery channels the utility service - think Mobile phone providers.

The BBC can produce good content, so what? If it is so good let people choose to pay for it. They will, I would pay for some of it, why not. I pay for Netflix, Sky and other bits here and there.

But by force, to appease the luvvies, the Government decides taxing is always the answer. Another sad day for capitalism.

Dave v Nigel

This is the big one, sod the Euro's, the big one is Dave versus Nigel going to head to head to be champion of Breamain or Brexit in ITV's big debate.


The thing is, Nigel is a great underdog. The media have written him off long ago, but I recall seeing him debate Nick Clegg a few years ago, poor old Clegg - smashed beyond all hope of recovery.


Mr Cameron has a bit more experience than Clegg and has the nasty side on which to lean. But I don't see him wiping the floor with Nigel - in fact, given expectations will be low, it could be just the tonic the Leave side need as the tedious campaign enters its home stretch.


No surprise this is not being spun as such in the media at the moment, but the Brits love an underdog.

The trouble with the truth

This week has been a bonanza week for VIP's getting unexpectedly caught out by a live mike. I always enjoy it when this happens as it mirrors life of us more ordinary folk.


The Queen has been caught saying the Chinese are rude, Mr Cameron has been caught out saying Afghanistan and Nigeria are corrupt. What makes this better are that these statements are true, but normal diplomatic tact and courtesy would mean these remain known and unsaid.


Of course, the phenomena of The Donald and to some extent Farage, Corybn et al is that they are making a play for saying stuff that a lot of people won't normally voice and are finding there are votes in it.


In my more humdrum world, the best bits normally come when various people from around the world think they have pressed the mute button during a conference call and discover they have not when tutting at the Russkies/Septics/Englanders or comically mimicking their respective voices. Or indeed forget they are on a video conference and not just on a phone call...


I am in two minds as to how things are developing. In the Victorian age of course much more was left unsaid than said; rules of etiquette were everything. Now, an age later, we have a call for safe spaces and worries about triggering - which has many echoes of etiquette really even if it all feels a b it feeble to us now.


I wonder where we will be in the future, will people slowly become more direct and honest or will we regress to saying as little as possible?

It's WAR!

Not even the traditional September dates either. The Prime Minister today has said that if we leave the EU, PEACE itself will be threatened and that is a VERY BAD THING.


I find it amazing that after the totally ineffectual Remain Campaign so far (i.e. the polls have hardly moved, if at all it is to Leave), to double down on Project Fear is a big bet.

Who really believes this tosh? Firstly, it is not true. Secondly, it is the EU stirring the pot with Turkey and Greece and letting in hundreds of ISIS cells that is actually causing instability and chaos.

It is just so implausible a statement and it also fails the law of diminishing returns in a big way. The closer we get to the Referendum the more this type of attack will have to be increased.

So dear readers what do they have left in their list for later use?

-  Our nuclear power stations will collapse without French maintenance?
-  We will have no electricity as they close the inter-connector?
-   Food will be rationed?

It is very hard to see where they go from here. The only amazing thing really is that Leave campaign does not have its act together to exploit the obvious weaknesses in the Remain campaign.

What Do You Call An Entity With Tax-Raising Powers And No Army?

Highly susceptible to blackmail.

ND

2016 Local elections - everybody won

And for once, everyone did win. there was good news for all. The usual safe government kicking from annoyed voters didn't materialise for the Tories. They lose no councils in England. They finally have a breakthrough in Scotland. Or, more accurately, Labour have fallen below even Tory unpopularity.




In Wales, nothing much happened. Just one constituency changed hands. Labour losing one to Plaid.
So that must be a relief for labour. And good, limited, news for Plaid. On the assembley, Labour have lost majority, but are easily dominant still. 
UKIP picked up a comforting 7 seats. The Tories lost 3, down to 11.

The SNP continued to dominate almost the whole of Scotland. Labour's tactic of trying to out lefty them was a complete failure. No one was fooled.

The Liberals had a resurgence of sorts in Scotland. Encouraging signs, anyway. Very good hold in Shetlands that moved them from no influence to almost no influence in Scotland. And cheekily put them 1 constituency above labour on 4. Lib Dems lost their deposits in many many places. On councilors, UKIP and the Liberal Democrats picked up plenty.

Labour have won London. No big surprise. But by a bigger margin than predicted. And they have held onto almost all their councils, losing only 1 to NOC.  
The Greens remain the 3rd largest party in London, and even managed to achieve almost 6% of the weirdo voting system. good result for them.

So,everyone has some good news. Some real good news, not spin good news.

But some is just some. All have bad news too, except the SNP and Mr Khan. And Labour have the most.

The opposition party should be making gains. Standing still is no use. And this Labour opposition should have been making some  substantial gains with the advantages they have.

This is the sixth year of a ruling party. The government is currently fighting a civil war with a substantial number of its own, and the countries,  Brexit tendency. The government has been consumed by the referendum and has not focused on running the country. U-turn after U-turn followed the mini-omnishambles of the last budget. 
The junior doctors are out on strike. Just today the government has had to sneak a good day/bad news story that it was dropping its recently announced compulsory school academy program after much anger from teachers and parents. The new 'living wage', as predicted, is causing cut backs in other areas as  business struggles to find a way to pay for the largest ever increase in the minimum wage. The Prime Minister has had usually supportive newspapers against him over Europe. The worthless concessions the PM managed to achieve on Europe have had to buried and attempts to rig the referendum using government power and taxpayer's cash, have angered many Tory grassroots members, gifting UKIP supporters, when UKIP were largely out and finished after their own mis-steps post 2015.

The economic news is bad. The European news is bad. The migrant news is bad. The Syrian news is bad. The terrorist news is bad. The government forecasts are wrong and the government is totally unable to pursue any policy that runs into even the mildest of difficulties, due to its wafer thin majority and it lack of dominance in the House of Lords.

Any half decent labour leader would have made gains. A credible leader would have made large gains. Where is the Corbyn army that's supposed to be sweeping the new politics into power by virtue of them signing up millions of first-time and lapsed voters. If they didn't vote now, when will they?

The Corbyn party can take some comfort in London. But London has been a Labour city for a very long time.. Boris was the exception, not the rule. He won on the strength of his personality. No Boris, no win. Before Boris the most lefty of left wingers to ever take membership the Labour party was London Mayor. Ken Livingstone even had to defeat the Labour party to become mayor the first time. Which demonstrates both the argument for just how socialist London is and just how important having a 'personality ' is. It would have been a very big shock indeed if Mr Khan had not won. 

So. 2016 local elections.

Good news for everyone.
And equally, bad news for everyone.

{Even Nicola Sturgeon who might have wanted to make even more of a dent into the 20% of constituencies she has yet to overrun}

It's Trump V Hillary

So this must be a week of impossible things. Firstly, Leicester City win the Premier League at 5000-1 and now Donald Trump is the Republican nominee for President of the USA.

So much for my £10 on Paul Ryan coming through at a contested convention; oh how the party grandees of the Republicans must be weeping into their beer today. Apols for the bad tip.

Trump comes from the same school at Corbyn and Farage; deeply populist, able to sometimes say the things people want to hear and not what the elites think should be said.

However, all three suffer from the same issue of this meaning because they are right on one thing (say poverty, the power of wall street, immigration) they imagine every other hair-brained idea they have is also right.

What this does mean though is that politics is slowly morphing, more to single issues and away from banal consensus (which has proved so wrong over the course of this century much as it did at the beginning of the 20th Century before World War One).

For a short-attention spanned media and populace, changed by the emergence of social media, the single issues cut through whilst the sins seem more easily forgiven.

Trump would certainly make an interesting President, it is hard to see him doing worse than Obama who has done very little with his 8 years in power and has seen the USA regress across many economic and social indicators.

Hillary Clinton, wife of a former President, is surely the worst sort of first women President you could imagine - there by nepotism, no real desire beyond power, having hid the Clinton misdemeanours for decades. Frankly, Hillary is as bizarre a choice for the Democrats as Trump is for the Republicans.

Will make for an interesting year though. I wonder what impossible thing I should try myself given this week of strangeness...

Corbyn is a Resigner

Here's an open thread to get you going.

I reckon Corbyn is a Resigner ...  some people are, some people aren't.  He is.

Whatd'ya think?



ND

Econometrics, the Bane of our Existence: Weekend Reading

Fun though it is to have a punt at predicting the price of oil two years hence, it is constantly amazing to me that apparently hard-headed people fall for economic forecasting all the time, without once giving thought to the fact that (a) empirically, it has a staggeringly awful track record - you'd never take medicine from a physician with a history of failure like that; and (b) intellectually, it is bankrupt.

I could write my own lengthy & vehement essay on the wretched pseudo-science (and very likely will): but you'll probably prefer this, by a proper professor.

ND

Economists for Brexit

A strange week indeed in the world of this interminable Brexit referendum.


Firstly it appears that the polling 2 months out shows the race closer than anyone would believe. I am minded to be led by my own views that perhaps a really big chunk of the UK populace want to Leave the EU and it really makes little difference how many World Leaders or Dodgy Dossiers are rolled out by the Prime Minister and the Remain side; minds are made up.


In which case, it will be all about turnout on the day which makes predicting the outcome a fools errand. England may have been knocked out of the Euro's on the Monday - or perhaps they will be steaming through - how will the nationalistic fervour play out?

Anyway, today sees some very esteemed economists come out for Brexit and shoot a fair few of the Remain foxes. I have long respected Roger Bootle who I have known for years on and off.


Roger often gets things right, he was one of the ones noting in the early 2000's how spectacularly over-priced house prices had become and thus predicted much of the Great Recession. Few did, even if everyone claims to have done now 8 years later.


Only key issue that Leave seem to be grasping is that there is a trap in the whole EEA debate; a smokecreen of complex economic interpretation. The reason to Leave to EU is to control our borders and Government. Joining the EEA is a mis-step as it will allow the Euro-Elites to continue to impose free movement of people.


Today the economists show that the vast majority of trade is covered by the WTO and Ted Cruz wrote yesterday anyway that Obama is talking through his behind on the US approach.


It is about time the Leave campaign had a good whole week. 5 more and they can actually win, tall order though that is.

Meanwhile, Back In The Markets ... Big Events

Has anyone reported this in Europe?  On Monday, the new US LNG terminal at Sabine Pass was formally opened, sending out a cargo of gas bound for Portugal.  Yes, folks, that's an export terminal.  Shale gas is a-comin' our way.

The past week has seen a serious uptick across the energy commodities' forward curves - Brent up 7% across the whole structure, UK natural gas up 20% at the near-end, even coal up 5% at the back end.  Brent is still in modest, uninformative contango (as is gas) so a parallel upwards shift doesn't betoken an end to basic oversupply.  But hey, the producers will be happy enough to be able to lock in at higher prices.  20% in one week is not to be sneezed at - any fully-hedged UK utilities will be smiling broadly: any that were exposed will have been scrambling, maybe even to buy some of that US gas on a long-term contract.

And of course Sterling (spot) has had what some see has a post-Obama speech boost, though it's not at all as pronounced as the commodities - more within the range of general noise.

The opening ceremony at Sabine Pass could be seen as more significant than the COP21 "signing ceremony" in New York on Friday.  Signing? 

"The US, China and India - the three biggest climate polluters - have all committed to join the agreement, possibly as early as this year."

Possibly as early as that, eh?  Oh well.

ND

Going Out In Style

Father Ted famously uses the occasion of his Golden Cleric award to make an acceptance speech that settles a few old scores.  "And now, we move on to liars ..."   Yesterday I attended the retirement celebrations of an outstanding and highly-esteemed lawyer who practised in my neck of the woods for 30 years.  Though extremely effective, yer man is the eiptome of 'mild mannered' and we looked forward to his address in the justified anticipation of some wise and witty words.  We got all that - and more.

A bit of background.  In the bad old days before competition in the energy industries (and by Heaven, they were bad) one of the great nationalised industries used a particular law firm for all its major commercial dealings.  The senior partner in said firm therefore effectively wielded the power of his client's monopoly - and many there were who felt he did so to baleful effect.  Across the industry, all of us on 'the other side of the table' had cause to mutter under our breaths.  But hey, monopoly is monopoly, you just have to grin and get on with it.

Anyhow, our golden guy was once a junior lawyer in this very firm.  As people do, he was paying tribute to various folks he'd learned from over the years, and when his account reached that period of his career we were wondering what characteristically diplomatic turn of phrase he might deploy to describe the great ogre under whose lash we had all suffered.  He certainly picked his words carefully - "treacherous old bastard!", to be exact.

It was a great party.

Any other good retirement speech stories out there?

ND

Not shaping up as the best year

Businesses go bust all the time. It is the way of Capitalism and overall is a force for the good. Rubbish is cleared away and shiny, new and hopefully more efficient beasts are freed to emerge.


More likely, old and knackered companies are taken out where the new ones have already won the field.


BHS going into administration is the latest such event. Online retailing and a changing high street (seriously, youngsters die for iphones and wifi, they have few material needs beyond this that I can see apart from cheap fashion) mix have done for a format that was all things to all men circa 1995.


It is said a buyer will be sought, but they have already tried that and Dominic Chappell did not really have any answers to the business model, just attempted financial engineering.


So the shops will be sold piecemeal and BHS will be gone with Woolworths. Of course, there is the Tata steel issue too, where doey-eyed management is trying to get the Government onside with a sizeable bale out. No such thing is required, there is plenty of steel in the world and plenty for the future. It is not like the iron ore is from the UK so it is hard to make this a 'national security' issue.


But taken together these two sad stories do not do much to show the country is robust health. The high street continues its long term re-arrangement but does the online world generate the jobs and economy of the pre-online high street. If not, what are we to do to cover the gap? In steel we cannot compete with China's over-investment - same as in ship-building previously. Again, what can be done.


Currently unemployment is low in the UK, but for how long if the economy remains uncompetitive and based on a zero interest rate policy. The UK should make it through this bumpy period post the referendum, but it is a sign perhaps that resilience has its limits.

Weekend: Remembering Ronnie Corbett

You won't find me name-dropping luvvies, mainly because I don't know any - with two* exceptions, one of them now sadly departed.  I refer to my former neighbour Ronnie Corbett of that ilk.

Pic: Beeb

I knew him (a bit) for over 40 years.  It was always amusing to see a Rolls Royce driving around with just a pair of hands visible on the wheel and a glimpse of the crown of his head.  Seriously, he was a top bloke and had a real sense of civic duty and noblesse oblige.  If you asked him for something realistic (a bit of undemanding figure-head patronage, school prize day or opening a community hall, you know the sort of thing) he would usually try to help - year in, year out.  Not every star of stage and screen is quite such a nice chap.  (I once had a run-in with Cyril Fletcher which was of quite another character.)   Ronnie Corbett, David MacKay, Frank Kelly - all the good guys are dropping like flies.  (If the Reaper is coming after the songwriters now - Wood, Prince - then McCartney and Dylan had better get a shift on with their oldies gig.)

A funny story: the road we lived in was something of a rat-run for unwanted truck traffic, and the Council proposed to install a width-restrictor about a hundred yards from Chateau Corbett.  He objected, strongly.  So the bastards placed it between the 'in' and the 'out' of his sweeping in-and-out drive - with the result that trucks would take a detour through his property to avoid the barrier!  He had to fence off one of his entrances to stop them.  Sounds like a Ronnie Barker joke.

Yes, everyone got on well with Ronnie - not least, the local vicar: great golfing buddies, and he even 'changed his mind' on baptising babies born out of wedlock when Ronnie asked him to baptise one of his grandchildren ...  Will be missed, as they say.

ND

- - - - - - - - - - -
*The other is Angelina Jolie (sic), to whom I am related by marriage.  Strange but true.  Mrs D likes to claim that connection as one to Brad Pitt as well.

A Bloody Great Bale of Straw in the Wind

... for Drax, that is.  Here's a telling slip by Amber Rudd.  Writing to defend the indefensible Hinkley Point in the Graun, she says:

"new nuclear is the only proven low-carbon technology that can provide continuous power, irrespective of whether the wind is blowing or the sun is shining"

 - i.e. what we in the trade call baseload.

Oooh.  What about biomass then, lady?  What about Carbon Capture & Storage, that *indispensable* adjunct to the gas plants necessary to balance the intermittent and random output of wind?   Both, like nukes, capable of continuous power and much better still, both what we call dispatchable ...

They know, really.  Biomass mostly isn't low carbon; and CCS is a fantasy.  They know, really.

ND

Leave takes shape, too late but at last at least

It is rather disappointing that the Leave campaign in the Referendum has only now got somewhere towards explaining what it is aiming for. This is a rather crucial omission, which is very likely to cost it the campaign overall. Indeed, with polls fairly consistent at a 60/40 split, the Leave team need some game-changing events to save them from left field.

The Leave team have at least realised we can't join the EEA. After all, why leave the EU just to join its shadow little brother. They key here is immigration, in the EEA, we still have no border control. To me, population control is central to the Leave platform.

As I have said before, whether or not the UK has the balls of the Australians, controlling population and mitigating climate change are the big tests of the next century. These are the strategic issues that determine whether society can survive or not.

The EEA does not allow this. Furthermore, with globalisation, as highlighted here by BE yesterday, trade deals can be done or not and matter less than before.

The key is stopping subsidies to kleptocratic governments across the continent, stopping support for the anti-democratic and anti-business Luxembourg set and gaining potential control over our borders.

With this as the core driver, Leave have a better message - its a tough one that appeals little to the lefties and city liberal elite; but it could resonate enough in shires and county towns to see Leave squeak home

Obituary Corner

I had been going to write about the funeral today of Ronnie Corbett - of all people - who was a neighbour of mine.  But I think it's for the weekend, because I have just learned of the awful and untimely death at 48 of Prof David MacKay, whom I've had cause to laud on C@W more than once.

Read about his remarkable career here - a rather bare-bones summary, it has to be said.  Here's an extract: 

MacKay's contributions in machine learning and information theory include the development of Bayesian methods for neural networks, the rediscovery ... of low-density parity-check codes, and the invention of Dasher, a software application for communication especially popular with those who cannot use a traditional keyboard... In 2008 he completed a book on energy consumption and energy production without fossil fuels called Sustainable Energy – Without the Hot Air. MacKay used £10,000 of his own money to publish the book, and the initial print run of 5,000 sold within days. Bill Gates ... called it "one of the best books on energy that has been written." (Source: Wiki)

And it was from there that he went on to be the Chief Scientist at DECC 2009-14.  Now you might reasonably imagine that doesn't speak too well for him: but quite the reverse - he was a lone voice of rationality in a morass of green-blob activist civil servants and half-brained politicians, and did his level best to show them the light, even breaking through sometimes with truths they just couldn't suppress.  Even though they proceeded to ignore them.  His work on showing that burning wood pellets for electricity generation can result in greater net CO2 emissions than coal-burning (the calculations are very complex) was revolutionary, and informs the debate that still has a long way to go before we finally stop the farce of pretending that industrial-scale biomass-burning is 'renewable'.

A great public man, as well as a very nice chap.

ND

A lightbulb moment

 

So, as with Mr Quango, there I am buying some bits before returning the the UK with my family after a short break. 

One thing I saw for sale and jumped at was 100W lightbulbs. In the 3rd world there is no EU regulation to stop the selling of Halogen bulbs and I guess there are still factories that churn them out.

You see, CFL bulbs, which via EU law have now replaced Halogen's are just no good.

They won't work for any outside lighting as they do not work in the cold, the small print tells you they take up to 1 hour to heat up and also you try finding a sparky who reckons they work with dimmer switches.

Worst of all, unless handled with impeccable care, never switched on or off and also taken back to the supplier for recycling; they are no better than Halogens. This last point really sticks, there is a whole army of green bloggers in alliance with bulb makers who have bullied Governments into making changes for 'enviromental reasons', but these are often bogus.

 CFL's have better energy usage because, er, they produce less light. They have a longer lifetime by a factor of 10 for constant use and are 3 times as efficient only under those circumstances. Funnily, in my house they go about as often, if not more frequently that before. Especially if you touched them, which is a no-no apparently.

But it is a great example of why we need to leave the EU and its corporatist enthralled allied to dim-thinking greenie-communism.

Watching the Referendum Fix Go In

A straw in the wind.

Sir Alan Duncan MP, of colourful career, has had an unexpected epiphany.  From being a lifelong euroskeptic he's decided we're stronger safer better in.  His constituents are surprised because they recall him taking a rather different line, really quite recently.

But these things happen, don't they?

In other news; Sir Alan is very concerned at the thought that MPs might be judged by how wealthy they are, be required to publish their tax returns etc, because if high-achieving people had to worry about that kind of attention they wouldn't go into parliament at all.

As things stand, I would have though his tax return is a matter between him and the HMRC.

ND

Homosexual Food

I managed to appal my kids whilst in Arrecife, Lanzarote airport. I made a homophobic reference aloud to the entire food court. But to be fair to me, Bristol airport provoked me into it.

It was 10am. And I'd been up since 5am. And was hungry and had 30 minutes before boarding begins. This was in Bristol airport. The Quango clan was in the cafe area and looking for something to eat. 
And what was available was what is now always available in the UK. Packaged sandwiches consisting of foods that I would never choose to put together. Bottled water. An unknown brand of orange juice. Massive coffee cups, Sweet cookies and an assortment of unlikely flavoured muffins.

And that was about it. No cooked food except in a restaurant area, that had queues to get in. 
So, with a looming deadline its toastie and panini hell. 

Mozzarella and tomato sourdough. 
Goats cheese and sweet chili chutney
Emmental and mushrooms
Moroccan meatball wrap
Raspberry and white chocolate muffin

What is going on? Is this Tony Blair's fault? is it the EU? It all started happening around 1997. The phasing out of the cheese and ham toastie for an avocado and herb salad wrap. Where did all this ..this ..smug food come from? Where is the BLT? Or a ham sandwich? Gone. Dead. Deader than a megadrive.
All replaced by the likes of a falafel and red tapenade sandwich containing cucumber yogurt and coriander. 

This is the new food. And its everywhere.

Not just Bristol Airport. This is the new cafe snack, lunchtime food.  Pret- a- Nero-Bucks have consigned the 'old fashioned' grub to the likes of those terribly chav people at Greggs, and replaced it with the best food a liberal Guardian reading hipster can afford. Toasted Almonds and Baby Kale with cherry tomatoes sandwiches! Yummy.. !

Any public venue. Train station. Airport. Arena. Conference centre. Exhibition hall or shopping mall. The new food is on offer. 

So i'm standing in front of the chiller picking up Parsnip and wild crayfish..and putting it back..and grab a chicken raita salad wrap and try and read the label to see what chicken raita actually is ..
{ (Raita is a spiced yoghurt dressing made with finely diced cucumber and herbs. It is white with flecks of green and originates from Northern India).
.. and putting it back. And looking at the empty section that says 'egg and cress' and 'mature cheddar and pickle.' And thinking why are there acres of coconut chicken curry soups and yet no cream of chicken and no cheddar baguettes? .. Because you sold all the cheese ones..damn you.
 I have a seven year old boy here. He won't eat a rare roast beef and horseradish baguette.  I won't eat it with horseradish on. There must be something else ? 

What about crisps.. ? Mature cheddar and red onion ? Balsamic vinegar, sea salt and organic cider?
And then the girls come over and i think well they must have found something. but no.They didn't want any of it either. And so we bought some tea and coffee and juices and some croissants.

And I sulked and thought, well Quango, the world has changed. The mightily meek have inherited the food court. The days of a bacon sandwich are gone. Even if you did find one it would be a Miliband one. Jammed full of mango and brie and olives and..i dunno..macaroni.. in a gluten free, ciabatta roll.
Just accept it. Just .. move on.. Things can only better and all that..we live in a diverse society. Even in Bristol airport..Greggs aren't opening here anytime soon. Next time stop at the garage for a heated pie or something...move on..get with the progressives..

*****

And then I'm returning from Lanzarote. I'm in a Spanish food court in a Spanish airport. This could be full of nothing but paella and veal. 

Instead there was outlet after of outlet of' 'normal' food.

Upper Crust, the poor man's subway were doing good business. I adore their cheese and ham baguette. That's all you get by the way. Cheese and ham. If you want stuffed mushrooms and lime and mint dressing you'll have to bring your own.
There was a hot food place doing burgers. Big, thick burgers, that they are cooking right in front of you. Adding whatever peppers or lettuce you wish. And skewers cooking. Vegetables. Lamb. Beef.
Just cooking them up next to the team making pizzas to order.  It was unbelievable!. Real cooked food. Real..old style sliced egg in a sandwich. Ham and mustard. A toasted cheese sandwich. Smoked salmon. With or without cream cheese.

And that was when i snapped. In the middle of the airport. Aloud. Loudly aloud. I said..

"This is what I wanted! This is the stuff! Not that ..that ...that ...Gay food!"

And so caused my teenage girl to lecture me that food has no gender. And even if it did, it would be perfectly normal for a tomato to be in a same sex relationship. And gay people eat the same food as straight people. And so on.

And I had to explain I didn't mean to say gay. I used the wrong word. 

I meant PONCY!

 Poncy food UK я us.

And I'm sick of it!

 That's what I meant. 

Pretentious, pompous sandwiches made me homophobic.  And I sincerely apologise to anyone who is offended. 

Except the people at ***** at Bristol. Who can take their Ecuadorian **** wrapped in ***on a ****bed of **** and sunflower seeds and shove it *** their **** until its passed its sell by date.

*all food descriptions are from actual UK cafe chain menus. Though you probably know that and possibly even appreciate it.

More Vulnerable than is Comfortable

When a teenager - and I know this is going to surprise you - I was an aircraft spotter, military division.  There were four of us, and at half term we would set out in a battered Ford Prefect on long, looping one-day expeditions from our South London fastness: meticulously planned, OS maps all the way, to take in as many military airfields as could be reached in one day, timed so that sun-up found us and our telescopes at the first stop, and sundown at the last.  (Our record was 12.  Our extremities were Kemble in the West, Upper Heyford to the North, and Honington to the East.  In between stops we would recite from memory whole Monty Python sketches and ISIRTA skits ... party on!)

Anyhow: the IRA campaign of the '70s was in full swing, but security at these places was typically laughable.  It was by no means unusual to be able to wade unchallenged through a hedge and approach fully operational military aircraft across the grass (I have the photos ...).  But we and our confreres were the only ones that did.  It occurred to us that the IRA must either be stupid, not really trying, or in some strange way strategically averse to causing millions of pounds worth of damage and tying up thousands of British military personnel at minimal risk to themselves ... 

Back in 2016, I have been travelling a bit recently and had cause to rehearse the same observation, this time in respect of civilian transportation systems.  It would be crass to give details, but I couldn't help noticing (as I am sure we all have) that security is *less than ideal* in a great many awkward places.

We could go through the same conjectures again; and I am led to the conclusion that we may be on a knife-edge as regards easygoing, easyjetting international transport for everyday purposes.  Of course everyone will keep dancing until the music abruptly stops.  There was a dip in air travel after 9/11 but since then air passenger miles have doubled (sic), thanks to better aircraft, more competition, more demand at low prices, more movements of people from developing countries, and Not Very Much Trouble.  I suggest that it stands to get a whole lot more difficult, time-consuming - and of course expensive.  Schengen or no Schengen.

Hope I'm wrong.

ND

An EU Referendum Classic

Back in action properly in a day or so.  Meantime it's hard not to LOL at yesterday's classic RichardNorthism on the subject of some recent interview of Nigel Lawson.  Headed The Limits to Tolerance (!), it includes this:

the arrogant, malign fool that is Lawson had not even finished in his attempt to destroy the campaign. Asked about border controls in Ireland, the idiot told Marr that border checks would have to be resumed. If there could possibly be a more sensitive subject, I would like to know what it is. In one fell swoop, Lawson has just wiped out the Northern Ireland "leave" vote. And what is especially galling on this is that I personally have spent several weeks researching this issue and crafting a sensible "line to take"

... here we have this man, in a matter of seconds, destroy hundreds of hours of work, setting back carefully crafted arguments and possibly wiping out the entire Northern Ireland vote... exactly an example of what I've been complaining about. From a personal perspective, I simply cannot be expected to work hour after hour, week after week – as I have done for years – only to have my efforts destroyed in seconds by idiots such as Lawson, and stay mute. That is the point which so many of my critics seem to miss.

A passage like this could be from one of Craig Brown's brilliant parodies.  Or, sadly, from a clinical textbook.  Laugh?  Actually I nearly wept for the poor man.

ND

In Which Your Hero is Gassed by the CRS

So there are Mr & Mrs Drew going about their lawful holiday in Paris, returning by train from a pleasant day in St-Germain-en-Laye.  Bimbling through the labyrinth that is the Nation RER/Metro station (think Oxford Circus or Bank multiplied by five) we noticed a few folks with scarfs over their faces ... well, it was quite chilly, and anyhow the denizens of the RER include some dubious types from the banlieu as anyone will tell you ... we mounted an escalator to propel us into the daylight at our chosen exit.

Bam - straight into a cloud of CS with its characteristic smell, and effect on the eyes and throat.  I haven't had the pleasure for a couple of decades at least, when I last had my annual NBC test as a soldier.  (As I said, it was a cold day so at least the CS wasn't going to make its way to, ahem, sweaty parts, where it also has an effect ...).  Plus the usual helicopter, and the popping of some kind of percussion device being used by one side or another.

Yes, friends, this is one of a series of riots against M.Hollande's plans for a bit of labour law reform.  In the red corner, a mob known as Nuit Debout, who on this occasion were 'standing up' during the daytime.  Nuit Debout are probably what Momentum would like to be when they grow a pair - so we may see some copycat action in due course.  I wouldn't ordinarily cite Russia Today as any kind of reliable authority on anything, but here's their account.

Anyhow, call me a coward I really don't care, but my instincts are with the uniforms in cases like this, so we turned in this direction.

 Yes, in the blue corner were the CRS.  Best not tangled with, as the good Anna Raccoon recently observed.  They took pity on the middle-aged couple stumbling and spluttering off the top of the escalator (why no announcement down the Metro?? - I really don't think this would happen in London, they'd close the station) - and let us through.  They'd come for a bit of skull-cracking and it was the youthful lefties they were after - them and their last-ditch defence of the 35-hour week.

So for us it was back to the hotel and plenty of talcum powder.  I know the drill.  We took a circuitous route out to our evening engagement ...  I wonder whether Hollande will get his labour reforms? 

ND

Events, eh? They Just Keep Coming

As you've probably gathered, 3 of the 4 of us Capitalists are in foreign parts just now leaving BE to keep y'all thoroughly engaged.  And isn't it always the way: when you're out of town, the Events come piling in.

Cameron has long predicted the next big scandal would be over lobbying: he obviously didn't reckon on a special Panamanian episode of Family Fortunes.  It can't directly be spun for or against the EU, but indirectly it's a corker for the general mid-term anti-government, anti-establishment, anti-everything sentiment that will give Brexit its best shot (and probably Sadiq Khan as well).

Ah well, shoulders to the wheel to try and put paid to the latter.  But that's for next week - when I'm back from hols.

ND

They Know, Really

Under a bold headline (that was doubtless written before even beginning to draft the article) -

Green policies are not responsible for the Tata steel crisis

- the Grauniad proceeds to cite all manner of confused and confusing stuff.  Credibility is not much enhanced by their quoting of that well-known authority and general arse John 'Bummer' Gummer: “There’s no evidence at all that there’s been offshoring of industry from Britain because of our green policies. For most industries, the energy element is extremely small and the amount of extra cost from the green levies is so small as not to be in any way crucial.”

But they do also publish this handy and illuminating graph from DECC:

Michael White in the same organ on the same day doesn't want to blame Brussels, but can evidently interpret the graph perfectly well for himself.

Last but not least, painful for progressives to admit, Ed Miliband’s 2008 Climate Change Act, which committed Britain to being a “world leader in reducing CO2 emissions” didn’t help. It now looks like the kind of vanity project which has hurt UK industry without doing much good. And don’t forget that in his “hug a huskie” phase Cameron whipped Tory MPs to vote for the bill too. It was a pricing gift to rival steelmakers, an example of the kind of moral imperialism as arrogant and self-regarding in its own way as the old-fashioned variety or more recently unilateral nuclear disarmament. What a painful learning curve we are on.

ND