Wednesday, 16 December 2015

There may not be a European Referendum




Lots of press coverage over the last few days about UK attitudes to the EU referendum. All of these show that one way or another, things are currently too close to call.

Now in reality we would expect that status quo options would jump up when people were really faced with ticking a box to leave the EU, but nonetheless people are worried.

At a recent City dinner, all the conversation was that Cameron has lost control of the negotiations, will get nothing and then by accident there will be a Brexit.

Which would suit me just fine and give us plenty to talk about for years to come.

However, Cameron has a great last shot which people are forgetting. He has already said he will resign as leader before 2020. If he can't get anywhere with Europe and fears he will lose a referendum, then an option open to him is to resign. Tony Blair, his mentor, did this after all, ducking out and avoiding the EU question altogether.

With Cameron gone, the new Tory leader would have room to either move the date or dissemble totally the referendum idea. Many people in the Country would be hugely relieved, as would the EU who would throw in some weak concessions to show how happy everyone really was.

UKIP may surge, but with a weak Labour party the Tories may still be in a very strong place to win in 2020 and avoid the EU Referendum.

No doubt Mr. Osborne has already informed the Prime Minister of this way out of the very big hole now dug.

Tuesday, 15 December 2015

Paris Climate 'Agreement' - Really Funny

Our longtime commenter Timbo614 chided me over not posting a new 'falling oil-price' piece, it having fallen clean through 40.  And indeed I must - but just now there is something really entertaining to be shared.

Yes friends, the Paris Climate summit came to the predictable conclusion on Sunday, with much triumphant tub-thumping from the podium and much heartfelt weeping from the floor (at least I think it was a pool of tears on the floor).  Immediate green reactions were close to ecstatic - you see, we knew we could do it ... and now, three days on, they've noticed that *ahem* the Paris Agreement contains two-tenths of bugger-all.

As I trawled page after online page of wailing and gnashing of teeth ... well, you'd need a heart of stone etc etc.  But fellahs, it was always going to be an empty Agreement!  If it wasn't empty, it wouldn't have been agreed.  As predicted, George Osborne won't need to trouble himself with any commitments we can't comfortably achieve.  Or indeed any at all, it seems.

Anyhow, as part of the usual service to readers I have read the turgid Paris Agreement from end to end, and thought you might like to share these gems:
Parties should, when taking action to address climate change, respect, promote and consider their respective obligations on human rights, the right to health, the rights of indigenous peoples, local communities, migrants, children, persons with disabilities and people in vulnerable situations and the right to development, as well as gender equality, empowerment of women and intergenerational equity
(What about transgender, eh ?  Presumably the African delegations had a red line on that one.) 
Parties acknowledge that adaptation action should follow a country-driven, gender-responsive, participatory and fully transparent approach, taking into consideration vulnerable groups, communities and ecosystems, and should be based on and guided by the best available science and, as appropriate, traditional knowledge, knowledge of indigenous peoples and local knowledge systems, with a view to integrating adaptation into relevant socioeconomic and environmental policies and actions, where appropriate
I really like the sound of "best available science and traditional knowledge ..."   Including Aristotelian physics, perhaps, and a bit of voodoo?  Well why not indeed?  As appropriate!

ND

Where are thou Santa Rally?

Chart forFTSE 100 (^FTSE)


Stock markets are funny things, they give the right record of the state of the economy until they don't.

They rise and fall on specific company issues, but somehow reflect the whole market.

They are run by machines, but driven by human emotions and greed.

They are rigours beasts but follow obscure folk law rules like 'sell in May and don't come back to St Ledger's day' - which actually work most of the time.

And then you have the 'Santa Rally' nearly every year without fail the stock markets rise into the New Year, and then nearly every year they give up all the  gains in the first two weeks of January.

This year though the Santa rally is yet to kick in, even if it does the year will be a losing year on the FTSE - dragged down by its high resource sector composition.

A losing year on the stock market when the economy is in reasonably fine fettle is quite a rare trick, not something seen since 2001/2 when the tech bubble burst; perhaps the resources sector bubble is the same type of effect on the market overall which means a slow re-build from here as happened in 2003-2007?
 

Thursday, 10 December 2015

Monty Python's Life of Jeremy

Well beard or no, he's obviously not the messiah and there's every indication he's a very naughty boy.   But the burgeoning ranks of the various People's Fronts for the Liberation of, errr, Hampstead (?) are starting to make headway, or is that momentum ... oh, "Peoples Momentum", I'm sorry.  Another one up today, I see: "Open Labour".  And another along shortly.  All makes work for the website designers.




And for the anti-bullying counsellors.  Not that Momentum intends to bully MPs, oh no.  That sort of thing never happens in the Labour Party, does it?


 
Anyhow, there is more current relevance in this little documentary - covering the Gemaine Greer spat as well as the splitters - than a whole week's worth of Newsnight.
ND

Wednesday, 9 December 2015

Yahoo and Alibaba

Sometimes things are not as they seem.

The world business news is full at the moment of the news that Yahoo is to sell itself, or split itself up or not. All so it can realise the value for shareholders in its stake in Alibaba - the chinese export portal ( I never understood this success, everything I have ever looked at in Alibaba is 100% fraudulent, must just be me who see this).

As with many things mergers and acquisitions in 2015, the whole deal is really about corporate tax avoidance. Somehow or other Yahoo wants to avoid paying any corporate tax on a $35 billion share sale and has come up with various different ways to make this happen. The latest one is the to do the opposite of the last idea but for the same result, paying no tax.

Pfizer/Allergan is the same side of the coin, with a completely real merger created not to drive synergies but save taxes.

Ho hum to all that.

The really interesting thing I have learned though, although can find precious little English language backing, is that Yahoo does not actually own Alibaba shares. Yahoo owns shares in the Hong Kong Listing of Alibaba, which in turn owns the US listing shares. According to Yahoo it owns 35% and has major voting rights. One piece of evidence I can show to prove all this is it took 2 years for Yahoo to increase its stake in Albibaba which is put down to 'deal complexities.'

In reality, the entity listed on the Hong Kong exchange is not the company that owns Alibaba group of companies. It is instead a special purpose vehicle that owns the commercial rights to those companies and thus the profit cashflow.

So to some extent, so what. However, would you be pleased to think you owned a chunk of Tesco plc only to discover that you did not. You owned an SPV with commercial rights. What would happen in a country with limited law around property rights if the actual owners decided not to pay the SPV?

Just as well China has such a developed and transparent legal system so that this may never be tested.

Tuesday, 8 December 2015

Glasgow bin lorry and the expensive suggestion

 


An inquiry into the Glasgow bin lorry crash has found that the tragedy in which six people died could have been avoided if the driver Harry Clarke had not "repeatedly lied" about his history of blackouts. 
 begins the opening and accurate paragraph on the findings of the inquiry into the murderous runaway bin lorry of last Christmas.

The fatal accident inquiry by Sheriff John Beckett listed 8 reasonable precautions for employment of council waste drivers, , which mostly boil down to "The applicant should not lie on their employment or medical forms." And "The employee should check those forms..including checking the medical records."

The NHS  advice is that employers cannot ask for medical records without consent. And the applicant has the right to see the report before it is sent and to have it amended if incorrect. Far too long I suspect. And if a prospective employer refuses to provide the medical information, they don't have to be employed. Another recommendation is not to employ 'subject to' but 'after receiving' satisfactory references. How long would that take? It could be months. 

An old employer of mine used to insist on all references being obtained by the employee within 4 weeks. An almost impossible task as employees cannot navigate the corporate HR bureaucracy or the lackadaisical efforts of SMEs.That requirement was extended to 8 weeks. With still little success it was finally dumped back onto HR where it belonged. 

What is worrying for BQ is the seemingly sensible precautions of

  • Local Authorities and any other organisations which collect refuse, when sourcing and purchasing refuse collection vehicles which are large goods vehicles, should seek to have AEBS fitted to those vehicles wherever it is reasonably practicable to do so.
  • Local Authorities and any other organisations which collect refuse, and which currently have large goods vehicles without AEBS but to which AEBS could be retrofitted, should explore the possibility of retrofitting with the respective manufacturer.
Now hang on a minute....

 This incident involved a refuse lorry. An unusually large and heavy vehicle that operates in public spaces on a stop/start basis. The accident occurred at the absolubte annual peak pedestrian traffic time for Glasgow. Christmas shopping . Monday, 2.30pm, 22 December.  The first day of holidays for the kids and many workers and is the ultimate high street shopping day. And 2.30pm is 'wave two' in retail. The lunch eaters coming back out and the early shoppers on their final few shops, and the latecomers just emerging for an afternoon shop. Couldn't have picked a more packed moment.

The reason the lorry ran over pedestrians was a medical condition. The driver had lied over a number of years about his blackouts. He passed out and drove over pedestrians.

How likely is this event to occur in this way again? What is the cost of the retrofit? Did the Sheriff find that out before he suggested the council hike up the poll tax to ensure an accident unlikely to ever occur again won't occur again?

 The Germanwings plane that the pilot deliberately flew into the alps killed 150 people. 25 times the number killed in Glasgow. 
The solution to that undeclared medical problem was not to have a second cockpit fitted to all aircraft so a pilot could take control from a mental co-worker. It was to have two people in the cockpit at all times.

AND anyway..

EU regulations: 1 November 2015, EU legislation will mandate the fitment of Autonomous Emergency Braking (AEB) systems on most newly registered Heavy Goods Vehicles (HGVs) over 7.5 tonnes. 

So new vehicles will have the device anyway. 

By suggesting, {and its worth noting this was just a suggestion in the inquiry report}, the installment of braking devices, isn't the incident being treated as a likely, rather than an unlikely event?



Mr Cameron Goes to Europe

I try to keep abreast of all the euro-referendum theology via the diligent Dr North, that arch scholastic feuder and splitter of hairs.  But it's a full time job (where does he get his time?) so I may easily have missed a chapter or two of the tangled tale.

Anyhow, it all helps with the background when it comes to contextualising a piece like Polly's this morning: David Cameron’s cabinet saboteurs are pushing him to Brexit
The other 27 members have life-and-death matters to discuss: an unstoppable flow of migrants, terrorists crossing borders and Schengen crumbling, while the euro still trembles unsteadily. Patience with the frivolity of Britain’s pointless negotiation has worn thin. For the first time observers are reporting that Brussels and Berlin regard a British exit as a serious possibility. They don’t want us to go, but Cameron’s cavalier approach pushes them towards indifference. Some report that he himself seems to care less about leaving than he once did, as UK polls sway closer to exit – and he hits a brick wall through his own ineptitude. Why did he make the emotive but empty issue of abolishing working benefits for EU migrants the centre-piece of his renegotiation? His officials and government lawyers warned this was an impossible demand. Other leaders will not, and cannot, in law agree: free movement of labour without discrimination is a founding EU principle. 
Not such an empty issue then, eh?  (This is before we register schoolman North's view that Cameron has made no such demand.)  I could think of several explanations for its appearance on the List, including 'the hand of Osborne' whose student-politics expertise is well up to knowing full well the import of the benefits issue. 

Yes, the 27 would much prefer to be discussing something else, but that's a strong card for Cameron who, as North identifies, is the only one in the game with a strategy.  Single-minded David can often beat Goliath because the latter is preoccupied.  (I once took on, and prevailed against, a former employer - a very large corporation - and was widely thought to be crazy: 'they have infinitely more resources' said well-meaning friends.  Yes: but of those resources they were deploying perhaps one man-hour a day in the persons of one bored lawyer and one less-than enthusiastic HR-wallah.  I was working my side of the issue 16 hours a day, with unwavering commitment.)

And just look at what Polly highlights in her first sentence above.  (She's never been an identikit leftie when it comes to immigration, BTW.)  If as a europhile she's panicking a bit, well, she has every reason to, on several fronts.  I'd say both other corners of the public-opinion triangle - the 'leavers' and the 'let's see what he comes back with-ers' can take a lot of heart from the story so far.  And hey, there's 18 months to go!

ND

Monday, 7 December 2015

So what next now the dogs of war are slipped?

So whilst I was in the far East last week, quite a big fuss was made on the news agenda there about this debate that was happening in the UK about bombing Syria.

Firstly, I had hoped to avoid this debate, so it was a bit disappointing to still be assailed with it.

Then the debate, as ever, meant nothing. There is no plan to get rid of ISIS, there semms little mention of unhelpful facts that the Russians keep bringing up like the role of Turkey and then the peaceniks just say war is bad as if that is all that needs to be said.

Anyway, there was a vote and now we are bombing tiny bits of Syria as well as tiny bits of Iraq. Already the blowback has started, with stabbings in London and now in Abingdon today 'triggered' by our involvement.

Where was the real debate about WTF to do about radical Islam in our own country? This surely is the real pressing security need. Wiping out ISIS will be fun and is no doubt nescesary, but it is not the top level defence of the realm requirement.

Indeed, given attacking Syria will likely increase domestic terror attacks (it has already) then surely the most important thing to do is investment and working towards curbing these. Then thinking about the partial source and inspiration - preferably after long chats with friend and foe to find an actual workable strategy.

At the moment, Syria looks a lot like Libya on steroids, in fact had Gaddafi survived he would be a Assad clone for how the West viewed him. Libya did not work out so well, so how will Syria.

Finally, more to the point. How stupid are our politicians? Having the wrong debate about the wrong issues and turning it into a big deal?

Saturday, 5 December 2015

Political pet names

http://pbs.twimg.com/media/CVAiKRdUAAAHgdD.jpgThe big political news after UK declaring war..terror attack in the USA .. Oldham success for Labour .. Momentum thuggery ..etc ..was that Corbyn has a cat called  

Chairman Miaow.



That's pretty good.

A different Jeremy got into a spot of twitter outrage  a while back when it was revealed that his pet was called Didier Dogba. The dog was black . And so Clarkson was clearly being racist..This time, no demonisation of him naming his puss after the world's all time top mass murderer.

So now that it seems its acceptable to allow dodgy pet names again, in the spirit of Chairman Miaow,
 - "Let a thousand flowers bloom"

 And we'll have a good old fashioned weekend compo to find

the best political pet's name tags

For the right

Herman Pawring
Adolph Kitler
Rudolph Hiss
Winston Purrchill
Nigel Furage

For the left

Fido Castro
Owen Bones 
Eva Purron
Len McCatsky
Catlin Moran


And don't forget the budgies

Polly Pot
Angela Eagle

Your own feline, canine, avian, piscine,reptilian, murine efforts in the comments.

Wednesday, 2 December 2015

The bombing war





http://cdn.history.com/sites/2/2013/11/operation-rolling-thunder-vietnam-AB.jpeg
In the post World War one world, airforces were the new big thing.
Inexpensive, by conventional navy and army standards,the airmen offered a way to conduct war on the cheap. Cheap to set up. Cheap to maintain. Cheap in casualties sustained by the attacker.

At the end of WW1, he RAF had managed to free itself from the clutches of  the army, and was the envy of other army controlled airforce throughout the world. In order to continue their operation as a separate service, with all the extra admin and senior officer costs that brought, the airman  began promising great things to the politicians. Victory through airpower.
This theory was tested rather widely during the second world war. And despite huge expense in all resources, the results of independent air action remained , at best, inconclusive.

The most credible claim that air power could conquer a nation came from the USA, whose bombing of Japan did result in that countries surrender. Without a single combat soldier setting foot on its soil.
Its likely that the combination of the air and naval campaign, particularly the submarine war, would have forced japan's surrender without the A Bomb. But it would have taken longer.


In Korea air forces were crucial in preventing the collapse of South Korea and in the ability of the UN to recapture half the country. But without dropping the big bomb, airpower couldn't end or even escalate that war.

The Rolling Thunder operations in Vietnam were possibly the last real attempt by one country to force another to surrender by airpower alone. And even with the entire might of the US army and navy airforce available, it was not possible to defeat even tiny North Vietnam.

With the advent of advanced precision munitions, aircraft were able to target key installations successfully, with greatly reduced casualties. The mission statement moved from war winning .. to war containing.

And in this the western airforces have been very successful The Balkans break up...Gulf War One {resounding success for the airforces as indeed it was for all services..A fantastic operation that doesn't get the recognition it deserves as a skillful campaign, largely because it was so successful its imagined the awesome victory was inevitable.} The Gulf invasion II and Libya.

Libya was particularly impressive for airpower. The rebels were at their last gasp. Retreating into Benghazi. They had been outfought by the Colonel's forces and were almost finished. The French and British aircraft began blunting the advance and then just wiped out the Libyan army.
I remember seeing a Sky news report that showed a burnt out T-72 tank. Its turret blown a good 50 meters away. The reporter explaining that coalition aircraft had done for this steel terror. Then the camera pulled back and the road behind had twenty more destroyed tanks. And armoured personnel carriers. And supply trucks.And AA guns and missiles. Miles and miles of them burnt out as during Desert Storm.

Mr Drew commented here a long while ago about how once Nato aircraft were committed against ISIL, that would end their terrain  taking offensives, which it mostly was.
Heavy weapons cannot be used without air superiority, which ISIL will never have. So they are left as militia in an insurgency war.
Many are now saying over the bombing Syria debate, "Bombing won't stop the terrorists."

True.

Bombing from the air won't stop Isis. It won't stop Euro/world terrorist attacks either.
But it will pave the way for the inevitable ground war that must follow, if, as demonstrated above, a successful conclusion to the war is sought. Because air power alone, cannot do it.

Unless that really, really big bomb is used.





Tuesday, 1 December 2015

Some Actual 'Prudential' Regulation Ahead?

The usual rule of thumb about articles ending in a question-mark is that the answer is 'no'.  (Nice Grauniad example today: "New generation wave energy: could it provide one third of Australia's electricity?")

But let's not be too cycnical.  So now the Bank of England has been conducting another round of stress tests.
The Bank subjected seven major lenders to a hypothetical scenario that involved a dramatic slowdown in the Chinese economy, prolonged deflation, a reduction in interest rates to zero and a huge increase in costs for fines and legal bills of £40bn. The test found that profits would fall more than than they had done during the 2008 banking crisis – by £100bn by the low point of the hypothetical scenario in 2016 - but capital cushions remained strong enough to withstand the downturn while increasing credit to the economy by 10%.
I have long-held reservations about these banking 'stress tests':  they are rarely stressful enough; and technically, stress-tests should involve a scenario that is a shock to the system, not an ongoing pressure like 'prolonged deflation'.  However, doing something like a stress test is better than doing nothing.

The BoE has reached some conclusions, the headline being rather complacent airy: "The stress-test results suggest that the banking system is capitalised to support the real economy in a severe global stress scenario, which adversely affects the United Kingdom".  Well let's hope they are right. 

But there is a line-item detail that may, just may, cause them to act; namely the easy terms on which buy-to-let mortgages are available (once again). 
While it did not take immediate action to cool this sector - where lending has risen 10% in the first nine months of the year - it said it was reviewing the lending criteria adopted by firms and stands “ready to take action.” It will also be watching the impact of the extra 3% stamp duty announced last week by George Osborne in his autumn statement.
This might, then, be an actual British 'counter-cyclical prudential intervention'.   Correct me if I am wrong, but I think that would be a first -  the relatively new-fangled Prudential Regulation Authority hasn't really done anything at all along these lines as far as I know.

Of course, other countries act in this way from time to time as a matter of course, and were doing so before the crisis.  Our 'PRA' is a belated effort to catch up a bit.  Will they or won't they?

ND

Monday, 30 November 2015

Commodities Rout

"BHP Billiton has lost 41% of its market capitalisation this year. Anglo American has shed over 66%"
Seeing this morning's comments on the shocking performance of big mining stocks prompts me to stick this up:

Reuters/Jefferies CRB Commodities Index     Source:  StockCharts.com

That's the lowest for a very long while.  Yes folks, it's not just oil, commodities are having a lean time of it.  To be fair, BHP has other problems as well, it never rains but it pours etc.

They will be hoping CU's mission to China this week can stir up demand a bit ...

ND

Friday, 27 November 2015

Paris Climate Talks Loom: What Will We Get?

COP21 is not a new accounting standard (!) - it is the latest round in the protracted series of climate-change boondoggles, this year to be held in Paris.  It may all be a bit subdued this time around, of course: but M.Hollande is really very keen for it to be a success - well who can forget the demented circus performances of, e.g. John Prescott at Copenhagen in 2009 (COP15), amongst other COP debacles over the years.

Hollande has been working like crazy to get a Proper Result, ideally "legally biding" but at any rate something a bit better than Just Plain Embarrassing.  It is fair to say that before the latest terrorism outbreak he was thinking about little else.  In the way of these things, he's been trying to square it all away in advance.  His diplomats are rushing about everywhere on this mission: in fact *ahem* I happened to be sat next to one on the flight back from Africa this summer, who had no idea who I was and from whom I gathered that because the Chinese and others are really not at all interested in "legally binding", the best Hollande will get is something incredibly thin.  But maybe better than No Agreed Communique At All, his greatest nightmare.

We have had a bunch of FCO types beavering away on all this, too:
201 FCO staff work across climate-themed initiatives, with 79 counting this as their full-time role
Why? I hear you ask.  Why indeed, but apparently a large number of them are for the axe - after Paris - as part of Osborne's draconian policy-change away from all the green crap.

The question is: what has the UK delegation been mandated to agree? I suspect they don't need to say very much because anything coal-powered China and India are willing to sign up for, I'm guessing we won't find too onerous.  Of course, the worry would be that Europe is up for some self-harming 'leadership' role in all this, spewing money in the direction of developing countries for 'renewables' (you know, like 5 litre V8 Range Rovers for the president and a slush fund for his extended family) and accepting another round of infeasible 'targets'.  Except that I think not:  Germany seems to have had enough, with Merkel having pulled the amazing '2100' can-kicking stunt back in the summer.

As well as his recent round of policy changes - pulling the plug on the CCS nonsense being the latest - Osborne has given us another big clue in the Tory Manifesto, which said, inter alia:
We will not support additional distorting and expensive power sector targets
I reckon those are carefully chosen words, and that we may infer GB won't be signing up for anything that can't comfortably be delivered.  The days when Tony Blair let us in for a renewables target for energy believing it to be for electricity, are hopefully long gone.  Renewables targets per se are truly fatuous, even for someone who wants to see CO2 emissions reduced: the great Professor David Mackay, formerly DECC's scientific adviser has recently spilled the beans on the outright countr-productive nature of this, and the government now understands the logic of the situation.

Still, Osborne's policy-making has disappointed us all royally on occasion, so we shall have to wait and see.  The rhetoric is ramping up on all sides (artists for COP21, children for COP21 ...).  Will my optimism be rewarded in time for Christmas ..?

ND

Thursday, 26 November 2015

McDonnell, Mao and Yeo

I am in a ridiculously upbeat frame of mind just now, it obviously can't last.  The John McDonnell / Mao thing is just so funny.  These eejits just can't help themselves: they are totally resistant to spin-doctory advice, based on a lifetime of not giving a toss (and of being listened to by an average audience of three Trots, a couple of Respect voters whose grasp of English is not that of a native speaker, and a granny who didn't manage to get out of the social club before the comrades started their meeting).   So they are doomed to crash and burn.

Thus we have the spectacle of most Labour MPs, every newspaper, and half the CiF brigade declaring the rather trivial episode to be a Total Disaster; while the other half-CiF cries "where's yer sense of humour?" in a rather plaintive fashion.  Haha! - I know where mine is.

Actually when it comes to Chairman Mao (and I shall continue not to say 'Zedong', on no less an authority than the Chinese Embassy from which I obtained the volumes pictured herewith), although his Little Red Book (which in 1972 I was given for free!) is no great shakes, his Selected Military Writings (for which I shelled out 40 pence of my own money) are a really cracking read, I would recommend them warmly to any student of military matters.

The thing is, I can say this, McDonnell cannot - in the same way that no elected politician of the Right can enthuse about Nietzsche.  The reasons are stupid but compelling nonetheless, and only a rank amateur misses the point.  As they say in the army, if you can't take a joke, you shouldn't have joined: or in this case, if you want to be free to speak your mind, you can't be a front-bench MP. 

Speaking of which, I laughed like a drain when I saw the verdict in the Yeo libel case.  Haha!

But it can't last, I know this.

ND

Recession predictions post Osborne plans

From various sources:

RBS economists: 2017/18

RBC Capital: 2018

Jones Lang Lasalle: 2017

HSBC Economist forecast: 2018/19

Of course economics forecasts are tomorrow's chip paper. But the UK Government has staked its financial credibility on their being no recession.

With one, the Country's finances will be very quickly back in the mire of 2008/12 in terms of its overall deficit.

Considering the Tory domination of the political stage, why did they make such a bold gamble that could well lose them the next election with the economic credibility in ruins a la 1997?

Wednesday, 25 November 2015

Osborne scraps tax credit cuts

- Backs off in the face of opposition

- Replaced by heroic forecasting of economic growth in next 5 years

- Huge cuts to transport budget and other non-skollznhozpitals spending

A good political 'budget' shoots all Labour foxes.

I wonder though, if this timidity is shown now, what is going to happen when the economy turns south in the next few years?

Tuesday, 24 November 2015

Oh, America

You know there's a 'but' on the way when someone starts with a list of credentials ...

I'm a big fan of the USA and these are my credentials.  I have family there (US citizens).  I have three times been employed by American companies, and thrice thrived.  I have done a lot of business there, and made most of my money there.  I have travelled frequently, not only to New York (which is easy for Yurpeans) but to other, less atypical US cities if you'll pardon the double negative like Chicago, Houston and Dallas.  I am a big believer in American positivism (political as well as business), even if it has often been my role as token Yurpean to inject a note of realism from time to time.  I am even more a believer in the American attitude that runs: if the deal you're proposing works for us, we'll do it! (as compared to the wretched traditional Yurpean response: since you're the one proposing the deal, we'll only do it if we get 95% of the benefit ... actually on second thoughts we won't do it at all).  After the financial crisis I staked quite a lot of my money on the proposition the USA would recover faster than Yurp.  And in my soldiering days I have worked alongside fine, professional American military types as an ally.

But.

Recent developments in American universities really make me wonder whether the great nation is slowly committing suicide, in some sort of decline-and-fall melt-down of decadence that would gratify a chinese marxist theoretician (not to mention an islamist).  Item 1:  'generation wuss' - we've looked at this a couple of times - which as well as whimpering in its 'safe spaces' is now throwing a massive chain-reaction tantrum, seemingly to prove there is no future for rational discourse there.  Given the massive proportion of Americans who attend university (as least, to 'study' for one of their very dubious first degrees) this could be a bit of a problem unless decisively countered by the grown-ups in a confident assertion of rational values.

Item 2:  'generation meds'.   At face value it seems that not only can these coddled, contemptible narcissists not survive outside a 'safe space', they even need to be doped up to the eyeballs with prescription drugs for their precarious collective mental health.  

This can't possible be a generation fit to carry forward the flame.

Or am I just showing my age?  There must have been similar reactions to the Class of '68 and their LSD-addled anti-war protests.   American first degrees are rubbish, but their doctorates are not, so clearly they sort things out in the long run - or used to.

Still - doesn't appear to bode well, does it ?  Someone tell me please I'm wrong.

ND

Monday, 23 November 2015

The CBI View- women don't to eat or enjoy sports

This story, typical of the BBC, really is identity politics run wild.

The new head of the CBI, Carolyn Fairburn, a lady who has known few boundaries in her own life, has decided the world is not enough to her liking.

"Business Dinners" are apparently now not suitable events to organise for woman. I can see her point, clearly women don't eat and so would not want a free dinner and a chance to network with like-minded people....oh wait.

Of course, the baby issue is raised, poor Caroyln had 3 children and a busy husband so it was very hard for her to manage being at the BBC or McKinsey's and have a perfect time with the kids too. So of course, what needs to change is everyone else. There need to be events that are appropriate for women and at family friendly times too so as it works for her.

Then she extends the whinge to sports events too, clearly these cannot be appropriate for women either, as women don't like sport etc etc. The fabulos irony of labelling women like this when taking such a position is clearly lost of dead Caroyln.

Jesus wept, where do they find these people? I can only imagine how total her euro-enthusiasm must be to add rules and regulations to everything as it is needed to make her life easier.

Heavens forbid that people hold networking events early in the morning or into the evening because, you know, there is work to do all day and this is extra's - stuff which you don't actually have to do either.

Personal identity politics is one of the most annoying scourges of our age. Everything has to be about me and what I want, if it isn't then it must be discriminatory because I am a woman/man/mum/single/gay..blah blah blah.

If you are wondering why I have taken such offence to it, another little gem from last week. At the two minutes silence for Paris last Monday across the city there were plenty of people refusing to join in and making a scene because other people had died, in Turkey, Lebanon, Iraq etc, who had not had a minutes silence for them. It is really sad that people so readily use and abuse such atrocities as excuses to virtue signal.

Friday, 20 November 2015

Rudd's 'Energy Policy Reset' - Oh Ye of Little Faith!

Well here's something to brighten a stormy November weekend: Amber Rudd's speech!  Yes, after 'taking the summer off to review energy policy' she has at last got around to announcing what George Osborne's she's decided - and in some respects it's as good as I was hoping all those months ago. As part of our usual service to readers, I've read the whole thing (eight pages of 12-point*) - and here's what you might like to know.

The good bits (all verbatim quotes, in sequence as they appear in the speech) - and some of them are really good:
  • energy security has to be the number one priority (usually the last refuge of a scoundrel but in the current political context - i.e. displacing 'decarbonisation' as top priority - it's important)
  • in the next 10 years, it’s imperative that we get new gas-fired power stations built
  • we need to get the right signals in the electricity market to achieve that
  • subsidy should be temporary, not part of a permanent business model
  • we need to work towards a market where success is driven by your ability to compete in a market. Not by your ability to lobby Government
  • intermittent generators to be responsible for the pressures they add to the system when the wind does not blow or the sun does not shine. Only when different technologies face their full costs can we achieve a more competitive market
The potentially good bits (many require qualification, see below; direct quotes again, except the last bullet):
  • we now have an electricity system where no form of power generation, not even gas-fired power stations, can be built without government intervention (important she recognises this, and for what it is - a Bad Thing)
  • we are already consulting on how to improve the Capacity Market. And after this year’s auction we will take stock and ensure it delivers the gas we need
  • we will not support offshore wind at any cost (unfortunately this doesn't mean 'not at all', it means 'no blank cheques')
  • our most important task is providing a compelling example to the rest of the world of how to cut carbon while controlling costs
  • Ofgem ... will remove the barriers to suppliers choosing half-hourly settlement for household customers
  • National Grid as system operator has played a pivotal role in keeping the energy market working. But as our system changes we need to make sure it is as productive, secure and cost-effective as possible. There is a strong case for greater independence for the system operator (this needs careful interpretation, see below)
  • heat accounts for around 45% of our energy consumption and a third of all carbon emissions. Progress to date has been slower here than in other parts of our economy (another important thing to recognise)
  • we cannot support every technology (hopefully calling an end to the inane policy of 'the more stupid the idea, the bigger the subsidy')
  •  ... and she makes scant reference to CCS, which is highly appropriate since it doesn't exist
The residual depressing stuff  (my summary):
  • the ongoing fantasy-obsession with nukes
  • dangerous insouciance on the soi-dissant 'European Energy Union'
  • willingness to continue some subsidies and some 'support', even if on a reduced scale
With a list like that it's hard to go through all the necessary qualifying remarks, even for weekend reading, I could be here all day.  But here are a few:

-  'improving the Capacity Market' could be a recipe for even worse dirigisme, if Sir Humphrey is given the task
-  notwithstanding the amusing self-appointed task of telling the rest of the world how to control costs (a classic Osborne provocation!), we wait to see how much backbone the government has for the baleful Paris COP21 negotiations later this month and beyond
-  'half-hourly settlement for household customers' is a two-edged sword, dangerous in the wrong hands
-  the opaque reference to the National Grid is getting at a very important issue: in brief, they have every incentive to give misleading advice on 'what is to be done', because they get a guaranteed rate of return on their capital investment ... a pretty shocking instance of moral hazard
-  defining 'progress' on 'heat' could be a tricky business: it's a huge issue with equally huge potential for massive policy errors (and as Rudd has recently pointed out, DECC doesn't wholly own this one)
-  the European Energy Union might just work in our favour, but on balance I'm thinking the risks outweigh the opportunity: another post on this in due course

By the way, the "government declares an end to coal" is just a smokescreen (haha) for the headlines, duly swallowed by the MSM.  It's a heavily qualified 'policy' with minimal content and, notwithstanding its emptiness, acres of wriggle-room besides.

Anyhow let's put the caveats to one side, at least for this weekend, and give credit where it's due.  Well Done, George Amber!  

Next week you can crack on with the rest of my checklist:  scrapping the Hinkley deal;  toughing up the 'Energy Union', the Paris conference, little Gummer the Bummer + his useless Climate Change Committee, and the SNP's 'Scottish Energy Policy';  fixing the biomass regulations ...

ND

________________
* and that's before the redacted 'political' passages

Tuesday, 17 November 2015

Sleeping Giants

A terrorist organisation like ISiL. What can they hope to achieve? 
Probably only what they have managed already is as much as they will ever manage. If there were some sanity about them they would know that by a combination of their own resolve and their enemies weakness, they have made unprecedented gains that under normal world circumstances could never have happened. They would hunker down, dig in, and try and hang on to what they have gained.

Dassault Mirage 2000 N.The 'N' is for nuclear strike capability

The Islamic revolution in Iran is considered unique. A popular revolution of the people, led by the theocracy, toppled an unpopular government, almost overnight. 
No one really agrees why the Islamic revolution there succeeded and endured. The Shah was unpopular. And repressive. And corrupt. And factional. And tribal. and... 
But the same conditions could have been said to have applied to very many countries around the globe, which did not have a lasting revolution.  The most popular cause give for the enduring success of the Iranian revolution is Ayatollah Khomeini.
A one vision, driven, popular leader who fashioned the revolution in his own image and inspired others to great feats and sacrifices. A Fidel Castro leader. A Ho Chi Minh or Mao Zedong.

The hostage crisis of 1979 strengthened Khomeni immeasurably. His power increased and his influence in the Arab world grew too. But he was lucky to have Jimmy Carter and the recession as his Presidential foe. The oil crisis caused by the dramatic curtailment of Iranian oil exports of 1979 pushed the US oil price to its all time 'real-price' high, that was not exceeded again until 2008.
If had been a Bush or Reagan presidency, the response to the hostage crisis might have been different. 
"Give us back our people or we will come and get them..and if you harm just one, you will regret it just once. And that will be continuously."

Iranian terror has been a feature of the modern world. especially against the USA and Israel. The running of weapons and training of troops and insurgents to fight for the militias during the war in Iraq was particularly annoying for the USA.  But the USA had enough on its plate without invading Iran as well. Like the US in Vietnam watching the Chinese and Soviets supplying the North Vietnamese, with the most sophisticated air defenses on the planet, they knew they could only fight one war at a time. Iran was a solid, mostly united, fully fledged nation. Difficult and expensive to topple quickly. So a strangle by sanctions policy was adopted instead. That did, eventually, bear fruit.

ISIS have no such luxury. They are not a unified, well led, determined and resourced nation. 
The only reason they are still in being at all is the weakness and and unwillingness to fight of its western opponents. The same weakness that allowed the Fuhrer to occupy the Rhineland and the allies to do nothing is that which protects ISIS. The knowledge that the answer to aggression is war.
And all the unpredictability that brings.

The UK and USA lost the Iraq war. The US adopted the same post Vietnam strategy of defending Iraq, that, as in Vietnam, was nothing more than face saving and failed just a spectacularly as the defence of South Vietnam had gone in 1975. Total failure.
Neither UK or USA have any desire to embark on a foreign adventure with boots on the ground that will require a commitment of 250,000 combat troops fighting an insurgency for twenty years. Neither has the money or the resolve. Neither nation's civilians want anything to do with a second war. France wanted nothing to do with the first one.

But ISIS are supremely foolish if they mistake this unwillingness for a lack of ability. The western powers are fighting ISIS with a tiny fraction of one percent of their ability. When Hollande said he would respond, he could, if he had wished, have fired nuclear battlefield artillery into the ISIS strongholds and destroyed them utterly. Five men in an AMX-13
Instead he has called for an attack by France and its allies on ISIL. A call to arms. A call to war. Putin has referred to the French as 'our allies'.

This, in all likelihood will come, in some form, to fruition. The UK, US, France and Russia, by moving into only second gear, will destroy the black flag strongholds.


ISIS attacks on mainland France and the bombing of the Russian airliner has brought about their own destruction. The western democracies may be weak. But they are weak by choice, not by resource. It is a fool who imagines press reports of defence cuts means an unwillingness to fight. It simply means an unwillingness to spend.
If a reason occurs to spend tomorrow, then the money will be found. Its only the willingness to take action that is lacking. 
An ISIS machine gunning of a school, pub, cafe or a village hall in the UK is all it would take to make the people demand action. demand invasion and retribution. Attacks on holidaymakers is a horrific act by madmen. Attacks on our homes demands retribution.

The attacks outside their own sphere was the one thing guaranteed to force the democracies and the Russians to face ISIL head on. And to defeat them in their homeland. A strategic error by the leaders of terror that will bring about the end of their dreams.

"I fear all we have done is to awaken a sleeping giant and fill him with a terrible resolve."
 attributed to Japanese Admiral Isoroku Yamamoto regarding the 1941 attack on Pearl Harbor by forces of Imperial Japan. Almost certainly was the invention of a script writer for the 1970 film Tora!Tora!Tora! 

But the sentiment stands.

Deflation here to stay?

inflation graphic



One thing to notice re the inflation figures is that they are totally dominated by energy costs. It is easy to forget the price of food is determined by costs of transport and refrigeration more so than the cost of land and husbandry. Thus food and energy prices has pulled down prices overall this past month.

With the price of oil falling, still falling and looking likely to fall further with record crude inventories (although refineries are not at full pelt, a wonder of the market for another post to come) the price of oil is going nowhere but down for the rest of this year. Bar a major crisis in a producer state it will stay this way for another year or two.

If oil continues its slow fall, then deflation, or something near to it, is almost inevitable for foreseeable. This makes bad reading for Government finances and the deficit, which will grow in real terms even faster and for government finance another nightmare the triple lock guarantee given to pensioners looks even more expensive.

For the country as a whole, I am less sure this will kick off a death spiral, clearly there are many warning signs in the economy suggesting hazards ahead, but deflation need not be a destroyer.

What it will mean though in the medium term is more quantitative easing to 'ease' any slowdown.

Monday, 16 November 2015

I'm Sure We All Have Our Own Views on Paris

Some months ago I saw an article explaining why terrorist attacks do not constitute an "existential threat" to western society.  The writer made much play of numbers: how the hundreds or (in the case of 9/11) thousands of deaths are - in coldly objective terms - of trivial impact; and that in a world where nuclear weapons have actually been used, and genocides perpetrated, we should know better than to class terrorism in the same league.

This is the unsubtle stuff of a student debating society.  "Existential threats" don't always come in the readily identifable form of the Spanish Armada or the Battle of the Atlantic.  Deaths don't need to be benchmarked against the First Day of the Somme.  "The most striking feature of Islamist terrorism in Europe is how little of it there has been" - OK, but that's Nick Cohen writing on Saturday, and he certainly sees a serious threat: the death-knell of European liberalism is what he fears is ringing in his ears.

I too believe today's threat really does merit consideration in extreme terms; my reason is different to his.  It's the capitulationist tendency I fear among politicians and populace alike: so many prone - as human beings - to detect quickly which way a strong wind is blowing, and to look for a quiet life (see the first, third and fourth letters in this predictable little batch).

Is it in bad taste to use French illustrations?  Vichy is one, Submission is another.   M.Hollande has offered fighting talk, but for every De Gaulle (and Churchill) there is a Pétain (and a Halifax) and the 98% of an entire population that inevitably falls under their sway.  I know dozens of MPs.  There are very few of these artists of the possible who, when push comes to shove, would draw a line in the sand anywhere, on any issue - provided they can see their way clear to being re-elected.  And who doesn't keep their heads down when enemy tanks are rolling down the street?

The full-cycle dynamics of the threat, then, are to do with what the 'deal-makers' amongst our elected representatives will concede if they really feel the wind blowing in a new direction, in this case if they detect the terror-merchants have the stamina and strategy to match their evil intent and their current resource-base.  As it happens, right now I could see it going either way.  All the short-term frontier-closings and extra-bombs-over-Syria are no more than phoney-war stuff, activity for the sake of being seen to act, neither here nor there.  We are waiting for the first signs of the main event.  To us a sporting metaphor, a lot hinges on whichever side scores next ...

What might the next move be?  Even the Guardian opines that "the defeat of Isis in Syria will not dissolve the threat of jihadi violence, but it is a necessary step on that road. That will surely entail military action".  A very probable next play, I reckon, is a spectacular intervention by Putin's plentiful forces.  Russia is suffering a lot - from low oil prices, sanctions, insulting political gestures from the west and very insulting commercial terms from China, their market of last resort.  Getting onto the right side of some of these issues depends on Russia being promoted to the status of our enemy's enemy and that, he will feel, is within Putin's power to deliver*.   Whether he's right about that or not, it seems to me he is entirely likely to follow something like Raedwald's suggested course of action, shortly after there is clarity on the downing of the airliner in Egypt.

We are told that the G20 is already becoming a series of little breakout meetings on Syria.  Putin is still a member of that club (as are Saudi and Turkey and indeed China - altogether a more meaningful forum than the G7), and he'll be sniffing the air, alright.  

Perhaps Obama can call off his bear-baiters and get more of the world back onside, which is what is needed - as a first step - to eradicate the threat posed by the combined forces of the terror-merchants and the capitulationists.  

"You ask, what is our policy ... what is our aim? I can answer in one word: victory."  Half the reason we won last time around was that everyone, from modest families in terraced houses to Franklin Delano Roosevelt in the White House, knew that Churchill meant it.  

ND

*Where does that leave Ukraine?  That's an interesting one.  Might see Russia contenting itself with Crimea.  At the same time, the EU might find itself losing interest, too.  Last year's issue ...

Friday, 13 November 2015

Oil: Brent below $45

- having crossing the significant $46 mark earlier in the week.  Oh, and it seems Sweden did reinstate border controls today.  Wars and rumours of wars ... have a nice weekend !

ND

Is the economic boom ending?

It always had to happen, as it always does. Normally the UK has operated on a 7 year economic cycle from boom to bust since the second world war, with a year or two's grace at either end. Of course, with the huge crash of 2008 (coming seven years after the dotcom bubble burst in 2001 when there was a recession in a few key areas of the economy, now overlooked), we would expect the resulting recovery to have a bit more legs left in it.

Certainly, a fall in input prices of oil and commodities should be very stimulative to the overall global GDP. But the World Bank has been cutting its forecasts. Post 2008 the main global growth engine was China which is now rapidly slowing down.

Closer to home, with debt levels still very high in both the public and private sector in the UK, there is no more room to stimulate demand. Housing supply shortages also drain money from more useful economic activity to pay rents instead. The biggest dove in the Bank of England is forecasting a reduction in UK economic activity

My own direct experience of the market at the moment is seeing management start to discuss the next downturn - be it one year or two years away. Certainly, when this happens in the past my experience is that it comes quicker than we think.

Having said that, in 2011 in the Euro Crisis the UK managed to avoid recession in the face of a calamitous external event and a big jump in Sterling. So, the die is not yet cast and perhaps a very shallow drop-off is on the cards for the UK, even if the likes of China and Brazil fair worse.

One thing I can't see though is how the UK will avoid a significant economic slow down before the next election; perhaps a window will open for Mr Corbyn after all? The state of the UK public finance is poor when faced with a renewed global slowdown.

Thursday, 12 November 2015

Mohdi does it, could Boris?

Narendra Modi, who until three years ago was banned from the UK.
India's Prime Minister is at many things to many people. One part Hindu Nationalist and another economic reformer. His personal life is somewhat strange and yet accepted.
A difficult man overall. His visit to the UK though is very well thought out in political terms. Indian Prime Ministers get a lot of stick for spending money on overseas adventures. Imagine if in the UK we had the real poverty that exists in India, the left would be indignant of the Government spending even a penny on excess. Lest we not forget, the Indian communist party actually runds states in Eastern India too.

So to counter this, Mr Mohdi, who has a large entourage of acolytes, hit upon a good wheeze. He is addressing tomorrow night Wembley stadium where 60,000 tickets have been sold and this will pay for both his trip and also the coffers of his BJP party. So he combines fundraising and cutting Government expenditure all in one go.

Perhaps after all this quality would be something we could expect if Boris Johnson ever became Prime Minister; he could write columns in foreign newspapers, appear on their comedy programmes and charge of a few after dinner speeches. Certainly it would be an innovative way to reduce spending by the Foreign Office.

Wednesday, 11 November 2015

Power Cuts Ahoy?

Seven years ago around these parts we used to do an occasional series, "watching the lights go out".  Back then (was it really 7 years ago? - yup!) we noted that 2015 looked like being the crunch year, and dismissively reported EDF offering new-nuke power from Hinkley in ... 2017, hahah.  Indeed, EDF's chief frog-in-the-UK said we'd be needing his bloody new nukes by 2017 because otherwise he wouldn't be getting hot Christmas dinner. 

Well 2015 is certainly set to be crunch-year;  EDF are now offering new-nuke power by, errr, 2024 at the absolute earliest;  by 2017 the capacity margin will almost certainly be negative, as everyone knew even back in 2008; and last week we had the first NISM of the new era.  It won't be the last.

Now some silly things have been said about this, not least by the DTel who said the Grid was using its 'last resort measures'.  Not so -  the Grid has no end of tricks up its sleeve before actually shutting off power to residential customers.  And a NISM is only the lowest level of three emergency stages it can trigger before Granny is finally plunged into darkness.  

The thing is, it's a crass way to run the whelk-stall - crass, and expensive and, of course, CO2-intensive, because the further down the slippery slope the Grid goes, the more diesel gennies spring into life:  firstly the standby diesels the Grid itself has contracted for these purposes; then the privately-owned diesels that various industrial customers maintain against the day when the Grid pays them to come off the system (stages 1 & 2), and then forcibly kicks them off the system (stages 3 and blackout);  then the hospitals' diesels (stages 3 & blackout); then (on a tiny scale) private individuals' diesels (blackout).  And the CO2 output of this lot is as bad as or worse than coal, with the particulates being a lot worse, hahah.  Check out that black smoke, greenies

Amber Rudd is promising an 'energy policy reset', and it can't be quick enough.  But the mithering about missed renewables targets doesn't make one optimisitic on this score.  An entertaining sequence of winter crises lies ahead.

ND

Tuesday, 10 November 2015

Brexit games commence

With the Prime Minister looking like he has finally decided to the the EU referendum out the way, the  Remain campaign has sort of launched. The pure power of the Remain campaign can be seen for the ease with which the Prime Minister can get Enda Kenny and Mark Rutte, Prime Minister's of Ireland and The Netherlands respectively, to row on his side.

Less effective is support from the useless CBI, but still, shilling for Europe is something that that organisation has been on doing for decades now; it is hardly going to change its tune now.

With the date now looking set for the middle of next year, the Remain campaign can put into play its two main strategies, Project FUD and the actual delay of negotiations to unbalance the Leave campaign.

These two strategies have a good chance of success. FUD worked well in the Scottish Referendum when it was deployed on real unknowns - such as what would the end state of leaving look like? Exactly the same strategy will be applied to the UK referendum - what will leaving the EU look like?

Of course, no one can know, particularly when the Government won't set it out and moreover will not even have the terms for staying in agreed until the end of the first quarter of next year at best. This leaves the field clear for 6 months to set in stone peoples' fears about what leaving the EU may do.

I really hope we do leave the EU as it staggers from one crisis to another of its own making. However, from a campaign perspective, Remain has the best hand by far.

Monday, 9 November 2015

Oil Price Revisited

Banks and other sage commentators are wont to publish oil price forecasts - why, I do not know.  Back in March - yes, March 2015, when WTI was $48 - here is what the pundits, gazing forward a mere 6 months, were predicting for 4th quarter, i.e. now.
UBS                         50
Barclays                   52
SocGen                    54
Bank of America       57
Deutsche                 57.5
Intesa SanPaulo        62   
Morgan Stanley        70
Commerzbank          72
ING                          73
Std Chartered           84
And where is WTI just now?  $44, since you asked: it's been below $50 for four months.  And these people have jobs! - as my mother-in-law says.  Well, I suppose there are a few more weeks left in 4Q for something to come along and restore the average back up to, errrr, $84 ...

Here are some things they should think about carefully, from the famous BP Statistical Review, 2015 edition.  Exhibit One:


There's a lot of oil in them thaar hills     Source:  BP
Growth in proven reserves of natural gas is equally impressive.  And by way of another salutary factoid: in all the chaos, how do we think Iraq's oil production has fared?   A bit inhibited by all that fighting, maybe?  Exhibit Two: Iraqi production, 2005 - 1.833 million barrels per day;  2014 - 3.285  mmbpd, having increased consistently year-on-year over that decade.

Oh yes, plenty of oil'n'gas around: good luck to the Greens and all who believe in peak-anything.  Where next?  Well I'm staying out of the forecasting business, that's for sure.

ND

Friday, 6 November 2015

Morally indefensible not to bomb Syria

Michael Fallon, my local MP, has said this in Parliament yesterday. Apparently so sick is ISIS that is if morally indefensible not to bomb them.

But what about Assad, him too apparently though less is mentioned these days.

The thing is, the US and now Russia and the UAE have been bombing ISIS for a while and yet their boundaries of control remain the same; perhaps at least we can say they are not expanding geographically.

The potential bombing of a Russian airliner this week shows though that the psychology runs deep and ISIS tentacles now spread across much of the muslim world. Even with ISIS wiped out in Raqqa, I can see a decades long struggle ahead as people flock the the idea of a death cult.

So bombing alone is not working and indeed overall will not work. But surely if the case is morally clear, then a UN mandate could be agreed on for the whole world to agree to intervene.

The UN has its chocolate teapot credentials well established, but even this entity managed to agree to the first gulf war. If ISIS needs to be destroyed and Syria stabilised and all of Russia, US, UK, China, Turkey, Saudi, (Even Iran!!) etc agree then surely a global compact could be reached.

Indeed, for the longer war, a global compact is exactly what it needed, to show even the disparate nations of the world with their differing aims and agendas can agree on challenging pure evil when it appears.

But as to Britain further getting involved in the current mess, I see no purpose at all. Our airpower will make no difference, there are no boots on the ground, the strategy is a mess with enemies fighting each other and by proxy.

There may be a moral case, but there is no realistic real world case that would make a jot of difference with hard power. Soft power is still the answer for now.

Tuesday, 3 November 2015

Clamouring to be Best Friends

As we wonder whether the UK has any friends left willing to do a bit of trade with us, and whether we have simply to content ourselves with China, up pops Evgeny Lebedev (proprietor of the Inde and the Standard), advocating that we cosy up to Russia, too!
Shouldn’t Britain be that very thing, the trusted intermediator, that Russia seeks..?  Britain should not be leaving it to the French [*spits*] to mediate between Russia and the West. For all the greatness of this island nation, for all its hard and soft power, there is a laxity in our approach to the Syrian crisis. Meanwhile, a plague is spreading, bringing terror to our shores. As we become smaller, others grow; and we should join all our allies in fighting the real threat to humanity now, which is Islamist terror. Picking up the phone to Moscow would be a good start.
Could use some friends ...
See - everyone wants to be friends!  And, as well as trying to pip us to the Putin post, Hollande has shot off to Beijing for a bit of his own Xi action too (which reminds me, I need to write about the Paris Climat 2015 thing).

Oh and Merkel offers to be friends, too!  Does this mean no-one wants to play with her in the German playground any more?  Wonder why that could be ... (h/t Raedwald).

ND

Monday, 2 November 2015

Gramsci & George: More Heavy Political Reading

We all enjoyed the original essay on Osborne's Gramscian strategising - and here's more in the same vein, reviewing the first but also benefitting from the passage of events (dear boy), to wit the monoshambles:
The current furore over the clinical removal of the tax credits on which so many lower paid workers depend – the same workers to whom the Tories are trying to reach – illustrates vividly the susceptibility of even a brilliant strategist like Osborne to the blithe expectation that ‘the market will provide’ when state support is withdrawn
'Brilliant strategist', eh?  Just like the original, this second chappie does rather seem to credit Osborne with more than do most of us around this parish.  Or perhaps it's sarcasm, who can tell with lefties?

Can it really be less than a month ago when all seemed so rosy?

We will be keeping half an eye out for Momentum though: a rather ambiguous phenomenon with a curious blend of piss-artistry but at least a soupçon of the sinister.
... Corbynism as a Gramscian ‘primitive political bloc’ that has mobilised several constituencies whose support will be critical to any progressive electoral coalition, including newly energised younger voters, left radicals, the environmentally conscious, and anti-austerians. But Labour urgently needs to extend its appeal beyond that bloc. The new leadership’s Momentum initiative indicates an appreciation to reach out to a wider audience. It is simply too early to say whether Corbyn’s Labour has the ideological flexibility to build on its core base. At best, a long, difficult road lies ahead as the party seeks to follow the example set by the Tories in 2005
ND

Back from the basement...

Map of Middle East


After two weeks of travelling in the Middle East (well the non-warring bits, so a very small area sadly), I come back for once to find not much has changed. Luckily, we have avoided a stock market collapse in Sept/Oct for another year so we can look forward to the lukewarm rise into the New Year.

Also, a total obsession with this Tax Credit thing, which in the annals of Government is really very small beans, rumbles on. Moves are afoot to change the Lords no less - an annual discussion that has now been going on for 100+ years so we know where that is going!

As for the Middle East, a strange place it is indeed. Oasis of wealth and security in amongst hatred and misery; rather like a large version of London with better weather.

The biggest thing that I can perceive is the rapid descent of Saudi Arabia. Fighting a war in Yemen and against both Asad and ISIS in Syria and Iraq; all the while the price of oil remaining subdued. The country is really screwed in the short-term. So much so it is hurting the Hedge Funds of Mayfair, diddums for them of course. In the longer term Saudi has enough money to ride out a five year storm; but the sort of projections here I feel are fantastical when it has used up 10% of its foreign reserves in one year.

My travels made me think of a challenge though; which is the more decrepit civilisation - Iran or Saudi. Clearly this is a bottom fishing exercise but equally it would perhaps guide us to who will win their Middle East cold war much as the USA beat Russia in the global cold war.